Conventional Wisdom

[GwynnInTheHall]

Gentlemen,

We all come in here, other roto sites, read analytics, rankings, ADP, AAV and every morsel of information was can get out grubby little hands on pretty much every day of every year in order to glean as much information as we can to ultimately make the right choices in keepers, FAABs and trade content.

My question is that after digesting all suggestions, advice and eye blurring columns of stats, how often do you say--fuck it and go with something completely different even opposite of that wisdom? To your recollection, did your gut feeling pay off or cost you?

[pitbull]

Depends on how the auction is going for me. Sometimes it is the heat of the battle that makes me change my draft plans. And yes that is where I usually get into trouble. When I have a plan then I notice my drafts go much better. Most of us know players, sleepers, what they are worth and so on but I think the most important part of prepping is being right in the ballpark for inflation. The bottom line is having a plan with contingencies.

[The Dane]

My question is that after digesting all suggestions, advice and eye blurring columns of stats, how often do you say--fuck it and go with something completely different even opposite of that wisdom? To your recollection, did your gut feeling pay off or cost you?

I occasionally go against the grain, against conventional wisdom, because... zagging. Even in real baseball, the teams that have the most success find and exploit market inefficiencies which, by the very definition, go against the conventional thinking of the day. Old moneyball, new moneyball, it's all buying what's cheap and making it work for you.

One time it (almost) worked for me was the 2004 NL LABR. I drafted knowing that hitting would go for more than pitching, that young players with upside would go for more than older steady producers, and players that had been "touted" by the guys at the table would be the ones that would garner the most action. So, I went the other way. I bought the best pitching in the league by getting solid, older, established, reliable starters and three closers, all for great prices with no holes. Then I targeted less sexy hitters on good teams.

I led the league, at times by a wide margin, for the entire season, until due to injuries and playoff-bound players sitting dropped me into a close third in the last week. Like I said, it almost worked, but I thought for my first exposure to the Big Table, I comported myself pretty well.

Zig when they zag. Market inefficiencies. Against conventional wisdom. They're all essentially the same thing, and when things are most competitive, it's the only way to have sustained success in this hobby.

[Sharky]

Agree with Dane here. Going against the grain is a great strategy at auction. It's less of a factor in keepers and (to a degree) with faab. Occasionally it's about getting "your guys", though that usually just makes it more fun rather than more likely to win.

[TranaGreg]

To your recollection, did your gut feeling pay off or cost you?

It really varies; I tend to remember the times it worked well - I'm proud I found a guy on the cusp of breaking out earlier than the masses. But I tend to overlook the times that it didn't work out so well ... if I look objectively at my roster from a few years ago there are probably a lot more misses than hits. But I've learned to be rather conservative with the high priced guys & take chances with the lower priced ones so there's less impact if/when I'm wrong.

[chancellor]

Yes and no. Gut feeling has worked well for me when I've gone the extra buck or three on a key targeted player, and when I've bought good value even though that player wasn't in my plans.

Walking away from my general strategy in a draft because a player or two dropped....oh, that was not good. I had to learn that lesson the hard way twice.

The most successful strategy for my fun 12-team mixed draft has been a minor variation of the Patel Plan. I'll be doing that again this year, going with two CIs and two OFs in the first four picks.

[Hodor]

Yes and no. Gut feeling has worked well for me when I've gone the extra buck or three on a key targeted player, and when I've bought good value even though that player wasn't in my plans.

Walking away from my general strategy in a draft because a player or two dropped....oh, that was not good. I had to learn that lesson the hard way twice.

The most successful strategy for my fun 12-team mixed draft has been a minor variation of the Patel Plan. I'll be doing that again this year, going with two CIs and two OFs in the first four picks.

Heh, it's always fun to hear Bhav Patel and the Patel plan lives on.

[Hornsby]

Totally fly by the seat of my pants, there's no way to really follow a plan during an auction, especially one with more than 12 teams, or an only with at least 12 teams. All plans are great, until they come up against the enemy, paraphrasing an old war quote. Auctions are organic, they have a life all their own, and each functions differently. I'll go in targeting certain players, and usually don't get them, unless I force the issue (hello Jeff Smargidjdyka, you fuck), so I'm going to try not to force the issue this year and let the players come to me. Very zen...