NL-Only Strategery Help Help Please:

[james33]

12-team NL-only, 5x5. Inflation about 30%. I have a solid keeper list, the 4th best active team on paper right now, and farm system led by JP Crawford and Urias gives me probably the 2nd best farm system (trade chips: people dump every year in this league).

2B Wong $12
3B Arenado $16
MI Peraza $1
OF Conforto $8
OF Granderson $22
OF Peralta $6 or $11, if I extend to 2018 instead of 2017 - thoughts?
OF Piscotty $3
OF Soler $5 or $10, if I extend to 2017 - thoughts?
SP Shelby Miller $6
SP Zack Wheeler $4 (barely worth $4, I know, but I'm keeping because of his trade value to a dumper.)

I'm sure each of you noticed right away that the issue is....my good values are all hitters.

I need pitching. Closers are a bit more available, so I'm not worried there, but I'm quite worried about SP. Kershaw, Scherzer, Arrieta, Greinke, Harvey, DeGrom, Fernandez, Cole, Syndergaard, Lester, T. Ross all kept.

Available SP at auction:
(Ace: ranked #3-#5 in my ss; $27-$29 in LABR/Tout)
Bumgarner
Strasburg
-----------
(Upper Half of #2 Starters - ranked #13-#17 in my ss)
Cueto
Wainwright
Samardzija
Liriano
-----------
(Lower Half of #2 Starters - ranked #18-#24 in my ss)
Wacha
Maeda
Chen
Shields

If all goes well, I get one from each tier, and my team lives happily ever after.

But if there's a bidding war, if you were in my shoes, how high would you go on Bumgarner or Strasburg? Remember, 30% inflation. "Get one no matter what" isn't much of a strategy, but that's where I'm at right now. And I'm usually a more disciplined "stick to my values" bidder. Bumgarner and Strasburg are likely to be auctioned off before the next groups of starters. I'd be really nervous about not buying one of them - can I even compete pitching-wise without an ace? Cueto&Samardzija&Chen doesn't make me feel too good...

[Gregg]

First I would save the $10 worth of extensions to put towards one of Bum or Stras. That gives you 98 spent or 162 to spend at auction. I think you definitely need to get one of those first tier pitchers.

You may be able to snag Wainwright and/or Liriano at a relative bargain. Wainwright health concerns. Liriano just does not seem to command the respect he deserves. I would not touch Samardzija with a 10 foot pole.

Given what you have written I would probably buy the first of Bum/Stras that is thrown out. It might only save you a buck or two but I am thinking there is more pressure to buy the last Ace than the first one. I would make sure I tossed out the remaining one as soon as I could after purchasing my ace when there is plenty of money.

[joncarlos]

How early do you get to nominate a player? I'd try like hell to get Waino or Wacha nominated early just to see what you're dealing with.

I agree that I wouldn't extend Soler, but I would do Peralta. I'd be willing to go close to $40 for Bumgarner if I had to. I feel a little less confident dropping that on Stras, even though I think he could totally earn it. If you can't get them, Miller/Wacha/Chen is a perfectly fine top-3 in an NL league.

If they all go nuts, get hitting and MRs and trade in season.

[Gregg]

This is pretty funny. I am giving advice/thoughts to two people I am in different leagues with.

Well James it looks like Eld and I are pretty much on the same page. With the exception that I would try very hard to get one of the aces. I think the 40 that Eld suggested is what I would expect to pay and with your money be comfortable.

I have also played many years without spending money on a big ace. Unfortunately the landscape of fantasy baseball is changing. Pitching is becoming more of a need than ever before. There are about 18 aces out there and to really compete these days you need two of them, may get away with one if you have stacked second tier guys. The days of no ace are either over or on hold for season or two.

[james33]

You three (Eld, Gregg, jc) are great. Thank you.

1) One quick clarification: David Peralta is $1, so my choice is $1 for 2016 only, $6 to 2017 or $11 to 2018. He'll have trade value if extended, so I'm not doing $1 for 2016 only.

2) re: my larger question, great idea, Gregg, on going for whichever one is first thrown out.

3) @jc, good point on trading...and interesting idea on throwing out Waino or Wacha - I throw out a name 5th. Most likely one of the aces will be nominated by someone before me. I am planning to nominate nonstop outfielders since I'm all set at OF and NL OF is thin this year, so at some point there will be bidding wars there. Throw out guys like Pence/Parra/Revere/Zobrist since others for sure will nominate the higher priced outfielders, and pretty soon, hopefully bidding wars on the $8-$12 outfielders. Nominating only OF gives me one less thing to think about too. But an interesting idea.

4) Interesting too that 2 of the 3 of you seem comfortable with going into the season without one of the aces. I've always been more of an Ace guy; hence the panic you're seeing.

5) Darn you, jc and eld! "Close to 40" and "somewhere near 40" (I'm interpreting both to mean $38-$39) - exactly what I was thinking, and yes, just within my comfort zone. Pay maybe a bit more than the full inflated value, and I've got my ace, a more balanced roster, and ~$130 to play with for the rest of the auction. I'm cool with that. But if it goes $40...seems like you two would lean to go with the 2nd/3rd tier pitchers I'd mention, while Gregg would pay the $40? Anyone in at $41-$42? Anyone else want to weigh in?

[joncarlos]

Yeah, I'd also go 1 year and $6 on Peralta. He's great but not as young as you think.

I wouldn't love paying $40-$42 for Bumgarner, but if the alternative is $33 for Wainwright or $29 for Wacha, I'd do it. That's why I said it would be good to know early what you're dealing with.

[Gregg]

You three (Eld, Gregg, jc) are great. Thank you.

1) One quick clarification: David Peralta is $1, so my choice is $1 for 2016 only, $6 to 2017 or $11 to 2018. He'll have trade value if extended, so I'm not doing $1 for 2016 only.

2) re: my larger question, great idea, Gregg, on going for whichever one is first thrown out.

3) @jc, good point on trading...and interesting idea on throwing out Waino or Wacha - I throw out a name 5th. Most likely one of the aces will be nominated by someone before me. I am planning to nominate nonstop outfielders since I'm all set at OF and NL OF is thin this year, so at some point there will be bidding wars there. Throw out guys like Pence/Parra/Revere/Zobrist since others for sure will nominate the higher priced outfielders, and pretty soon, hopefully bidding wars on the $8-$12 outfielders. Nominating only OF gives me one less thing to think about too. But an interesting idea.

4) Interesting too that 2 of the 3 of you seem comfortable with going into the season without one of the aces. I've always been more of an Ace guy; hence the panic you're seeing.

5) Darn you, jc and eld! "Close to 40" and "somewhere near 40" (I'm interpreting both to mean $38-$39) - exactly what I was thinking, and yes, just within my comfort zone. Pay maybe a bit more than the full inflated value, and I've got my ace, a more balanced roster, and ~$130 to play with for the rest of the auction. I'm cool with that. But if it goes $40...seems like you two would lean to go with the 2nd/3rd tier pitchers I'd mention, while Gregg would pay the $40? Anyone in at $41-$42? Anyone else want to weigh in?

When I stated to use the $10 saved on no raises to use on the ace, I understood that you were giving Peralta a year at $6. I was suggesting not to go past that. If you spend 42 on Bum it still leaves you a very nice 120 for the rest of your team.

[Sharky]

I would go $6 for Peralta. Also I strongly suspect Strasburg will come at a discount vs Bumgarner. People worry about his health. I don't love him but he could be huge -- and Bumgarner is just as likely to break one of these days.

[Judge Jude]

agreed on Peralta to 6 and no Soler extension.
also, no way I'd use my 5th OF slot on Granderson at 22. even in high-inflation, there's an opportunity cost there in slot and dollars.

I GUESS if it's OBP and not AVG, but in that case I'd look to deal him for a borderline SP that someone else owns. or see if there are Soler believers - there might be.