Advice Needed: NL-Only 4x4 Keeper League

[YourPalChrisMal]

I have (3) remaining keeper slots available in my NL-only 4x4 keeper league (25% inflation). I have some players who are probably maybe worth keeping in this format for a small profit, but I'm not sure which ones...

Which of these 3 would you keep?

> Adam Duvall, $1-s2
> Wil Myers, $16-s2
> Hunter Strickland, $4-s2
> Jeremy Jeffress, $2-s2
> Adonis Garcia, $3-s2
> Brandon Belt, $26-s2

[joncarlos]

How many teams?

[YourPalChrisMal]

How many teams?

12 teams

[joncarlos]

12 teams

How many actual closers do you have? In theory I like Strickland and Jeffress a lot, but if you have 1 or even 2 actual closers, and then those 2, then you've only got 5 SPs. And replacing them with reserve picks in a 12-team league is going to be tough.

I like Wil Myers a lot and think he probably goes $20+ given the sad state of NL OF. I also kinda like Duvall and he definitely goes more than a buck, but unless you have some expensive keepers, I'd rather keep Myers than get eaten alive by inflation.

[pitbull]

Don't know about Meyers. Those wrist injuries can take awhile to heal. Not a great list to pick from but I keep Strickland, Jeffress and either Duvall or Garcia. Are these your only keepers?

[YourPalChrisMal]

Don't know about Meyers. Those wrist injuries can take awhile to heal. Not a great list to pick from but I keep Strickland, Jeffress and either Duvall or Garcia. Are these your only keepers?

No, I think I actually have one of the best keeper lists in the league (Schwarber $5, Realmuto $3, Votto $29, Dee Gordon $10, Seager $9, Wong $8, D.Santana $8, Yelich $13, Soler $11, Iglesias $5, Will Smith $1, Melancon $9). But I can keep 3 more if I want to.

[YourPalChrisMal]

How many actual closers do you have? In theory I like Strickland and Jeffress a lot, but if you have 1 or even 2 actual closers, and then those 2, then you've only got 5 SPs. And replacing them with reserve picks in a 12-team league is going to be tough.

I like Wil Myers a lot and think he probably goes $20+ given the sad state of NL OF. I also kinda like Duvall and he definitely goes more than a buck, but unless you have some expensive keepers, I'd rather keep Myers than get eaten alive by inflation.

I also have Melancon $9 and Will Smith $1, so I'm in decent shape for saves. The fact that I also have Will Smith makes keeping Jeffress a bit of a no-brainer. Melancon, Smith, Jeffress and Strickland would certainly lock up my bullpen quite nicely.

I really like Wil Myers. But it's funny because when I drafted him for $16 last year there were a few people who scoffed at the price. And the scoffs turned out to be right because he really didn't have a $16 year in 2015 and it's scary that it included a wrist injury. So here we are entering 2016 and the hype train on him seems to be a bit over the top. I think $16 is about where he belongs, but since he's on almost every "sleeper" list that I've seen (thereby making him NOT a sleeper at all), I suspect he goes for over $20. I do think there a CHANCE he finally hits like was always projected to. The question is...Is that risk better than keeping Duvall for $1 or Garcia for $3?

[joncarlos]

No, I think I actually have one of the best keeper lists in the league (Schwarber $5, Realmuto $3, Votto $29, Dee Gordon $10, Wong $8, Yelich $13, Soler $11, Iglesias $5, Will Smith $1, Melancon $9). But I can keep 3 more if I want to.

Not convinced I'd keep Soler. But I like the rest. If you have Smith you must keep Jeffress. I think I'd add Strickland and try to go big on an ace if you can. Given this list I'm on the fence about Myers but I probably keep him. He had the bone spurs removed over the summer and came back in September. Now, granted he wasn't very good, but I think he's as healthy as you can reasonably expect him to be coming into the season. Even a pessimistic projection (ZIPS has .259, 15 HR, 8 steals) is probably worth double digits.

[YourPalChrisMal]

Not convinced I'd keep Soler. But I like the rest. If you have Smith you must keep Jeffress. I think I'd add Strickland and try to go big on an ace if you can. Given this list I'm on the fence about Myers but I probably keep him. He had the bone spurs removed over the summer and came back in September. Now, granted he wasn't very good, but I think he's as healthy as you can reasonably expect him to be coming into the season. Even a pessimistic projection (ZIPS has .259, 15 HR, 8 steals) is probably worth double digits.

I agree about Soler, but I need to keep him out of principal. Haha. I've been touting his greatness for the last 2 years. And I think the "where is he going to play" stuff is overblown. He's still going to get 400 at bats, and don't see how he doesn't earn more than $11 with a chance to earn much more. (I guess this is why we play the games. If we all had the same opinion there wouldn't be a need for forums.)

Thanks for your input. I appreciate it greatly!

(And, duh....I also have Seager for $9. Very excited about this NL team. Just need starting pitching and I'm ready to roll.)

[Gregg]

I also have Melancon $9 and Will Smith $1, so I'm in decent shape for saves. The fact that I also have Will Smith makes keeping Jeffress a bit of a no-brainer. Melancon, Smith, Jeffress and Strickland would certainly lock up my bullpen quite nicely.

I really like Wil Myers. But it's funny because when I drafted him for $16 last year there were a few people who scoffed at the price. And the scoffs turned out to be right because he really didn't have a $16 year in 2015 and it's scary that it included a wrist injury. So here we are entering 2016 and the hype train on him seems to be a bit over the top. I think $16 is about where he belongs, but since he's on almost every "sleeper" list that I've seen (thereby making him NOT a sleeper at all), I suspect he goes for over $20. I do think there a CHANCE he finally hits like was always projected to. The question is...Is that risk better than keeping Duvall for $1 or Garcia for $3?

Given what you have written I would put Myers back and rebid him. I would try to bring him out early so others may sit on money for players with less question marks. You get that nice new contract if he is the sleeper that some seem to think he is.