NL Trade Need Input

[pitbull]

5x5 10 teams. I was offered Markias $3 2/ND yr and JP Crawford farm $10 for Polanco 2$ Option yr. Was planning on signing Polanco to $12. Crawford can be kept on farm roster for entire season even if or when he gets called up. Would you make this deal?

[revo]

No way. Polanco's a stud, Markakis is useless and Crawford is more of a defensive prospect.

[axman]

I think this is a tough call. Probably why you have 2 different opinions. I think if you're trying to win this year, this deal hurts you. If you're on the fence or are leaning to rebuild; this deal could pay dividends down the road.

With Polanco being $2 ($12 for 3 years). I would lean to not making the deal. I often find when prospects come up with a $10 price tag they don't always get much return their first year or two and before you know it you're deciding on extending them.

[pitbull]

This would be more towards rebuilding. Just curious Revolution why do you think Crawford is more towards being a defensive propspect?

[madducks]

I'm expecting Polanco to follow in the progression footsteps of teammate Starling Marte and can see 20/20 potential from him. From Crawford i see similar speed with less power albeit at a scarcer position. Markakis offers no power and no speed at a position that should give you at least one of those things. I would keep Polanco.

[Pauly]

my gut reaction is to keep the proven Polanco, but thinking about it more, I can see doing the other side of the deal - especially if you want to try and turn around Crawford to get a better player than Polanco, which is highly possible. Markakis is a fine option in a 5 OF NL Only, and I expect something of a bounceback for him anyway as he was playing hurt for much of last year.

[bryanbutler]

agree with pauly on the bounceback from markakis. he's not gonna hit 30 HRs this year, but he's not gonna hit 3 again. i expect his more normal (healthy) year - .290/.360/.430 or so; far better than "useless." whether you make the deal depends on depth of league and categories, IMHO, which we haven't seen yet. polanco will get you SB, but will be worse than markakis in either AVG or OBA. i expect roughly similar R & RBI numbers. again, depending on other parameters, i'd certainly be tempted by that deal.

[pitbull]

Thanks for the input but to throw a wrinkle into this I just confirmed that I have the first pick in the farm draft. So I do have Arcia, Swanson, Rodgers, and Story all available. I would think Polanco being only 24 and now a season and half under his belt should improve. I don't know what Polanco is going for in other drafts but in the LABR he did go for $25 which to me is an overpay. I can see him realistically getting 10-15 HR with 20 plus SBs. Being only 24 he can for sure improve. Whether he becomes a stud player will depend if he can improves his BB and contact rates. I kinda of see him like Pollock. At this point because I can draft a high farm pick it seems to me that not doing this trade would make the most sense.

[Fresno Bob]

are you going for it this year?

[pitbull]

are you going for it this year?

Leaning towards 2017 but I hate giving up on a season before it begins. A good auction could change all this.

My question would be what is Crawford's ceiling? His contact and walk are both good which to me he has the potential to be a high average hitter. His power not so much but maybe that works out to 10-15 HR per season down the road. Also hard to tell how many bases he will steal. My guess is 10-20 per season. So once he hits his prime are we looking at a .300 hitter with 10-15 HR and probably closer to 15-20 SB. There is much to like about Crawford.

Really the trade comes down to do I want Polanco for next 3 seasons at $12 with his potential to hit 15-20 HRs and 20 plus SB or do I want Crawford at $10. I would totally keep him on the Farm for the entire season even if he was called up lets say mid season. Our farm rules allows this but I would need to have him as a keeper for 2017 but it would be yr 1 of his contract and if reaches his potential then we are looking at 3 yrs or longer if signed to a contract. As stated in my previous post there are several SS prospects I could grab in the 1st round.

[Hornsby]

I take the Polanco side...he could easily morph into a 15/30 guy this year, and maybe more. Markakis is going to be fine...but a really boring "fine".

Funny, I heard an interview with Larry Bowa, and Crawford was brought up. He said that he likes the bat, but doesn't know how much power or speed he'll bring to the table. Certainly needs more minor league AB's, according to Larry.

[revo]

Polanco was worth $15 last year in a 10 team NL only. Markakis was worth $13 and was coming off of serious injury. Now, I don't think Markakis is better than Polanco but it's not terribly far apart. Plus, you get BA's #14 prospect in all of baseball in the deal. It's a fair deal, but let's not pretend that Polanco is elite or that Markakis sucks or that Crawford is just some dude.

You claim Crawford is an elite prospect (which he is) but as recently as 2013 Polanco was BA's #10 prospect in baseball and just completed his first full season, where he hit .256/9/53/27 with 83 Runs, in a top offense and he seems to be getting better.

Markakis hit 3 HRs and had 2 SBs last year -- in 612 ABs. Sure he hit .296, but those are Rey Ordonez-type stats. He puts up as empty a statline as there is in the OF. Plus, he's one of those players who will be incredibly tough to move in-season -- no one wants the guy. He has very little appeal.

It seems like you're hoping for the two in the bush over the one in the hand. I'll take the former just-as-elite prospect who's still putting it together but is still a Top 75 player over a prospect who may or may not do much in the next couple of years and the emptiness that is Markakis.

[Hornsby]

the emptiness that is Markakis.

Either a great band name, or an existential novel...

[bryanbutler]

you seem to be dismissing markakis' injury last year entirely, revo. which surprises me. if he hits his normal 10-15 HR, gets his normal 80 R & RBI, and hits his normal .290, that's not "emptiness" (at least in my opinion). yes, he's in a much worse lineup than polanco, but polanco, hitting in a very good lineup for most of last year, didn't do much better than markakis' average year. you get polanco's SB (you *know* you'll get only a couple of those from markakis), sure, but on the flip side, you get crawford for those SB.

now, i like polanco as much as the next guy, and even bought him at auction in my main (for $15), but, frankly, his stats from last year have me pretty concerned. he looked lost for parts of the year, and his slash line for the entire year (again, hitting in a pretty good lineup) is not awe-inspiring.

as i said previously, i see this as a deal i could go either way on. depends on the league and where i was going.

BTW, is this a 10-team mixed or only?

[revo]

Again, Markakis' "empty" year was worth $13 and it was his worst one ever since he was injured. And Polanco's eliteness was actually a 92 OPS+. So what you're rally banking on is that Polanco won't continue to hit like a catcher, that Markakis won't return to norms, and that Crawford doesn't pan out at all. Again, that all might be worth betting on but it's clearly not a slam dunk at all.

It was, but Markakis' value is tremendously dependent on at-bats, probably more than any other player in baseball, since he does so little. He's also entering his age 32 season, so who's to say his power isn't permanently gone?

I can't find too many 2016 projected auction dollar value sources, but Razzball, which I respect, has Polanco at $19 and Markakis at ($3). Fantasy Pros has Polanco at $14 and Markakis at ($2). Roto Champ has Polanco at $12.50 and Markakis at $2.50.

Unless you believe Crawford will be up in 2016 and putting up $10-$15 of value, I just can't see why he should do this deal.

you seem to be dismissing markakis' injury last year entirely, revo. which surprises me. if he hits his normal 10-15 HR, gets his normal 80 R & RBI, and hits his normal .290, that's not "emptiness" (at least in my opinion). yes, he's in a much worse lineup than polanco, but polanco, hitting in a very good lineup for most of last year, didn't do much better than markakis' average year. you get polanco's SB (you *know* you'll get only a couple of those from markakis), sure, but on the flip side, you get crawford for those SB.

Whoa, wait. Markakis may have "played through" an injury, but he still garnered 686 PAs! Are you saying his injury drained his power? His SLG% was right in line with his previous two seasons.

And how is 80 RBIs "normal" for him? The last time he had 80+ RBIs was 2009. He's had 54,59,50 & 53 the last four seasons. Is there any reason to think he tops 53 this year?