Mixed LABR Draft - Live & Results

[Mithrandir]

VERY VERY seriously.

Thanks Todd. Some of those picks made me question the seriousness. But hey, we all have different values.

[joncarlos]

Eno will never forgive you for missing out on his boyfriend Jared Eickhoff.

That's a lot of shortstops!

I have to say, the Moore pick seemed very aggressive... but then I don't see a lot of guys picked after him that I liked better. Nola, probably, but he definitely lacks the upside. Heaney... same deal. And maybe the guy you took in the next round (Joe Ross).

[SlideRule]

When are the AL and NL only LABR auctions? Assuming those are auctions again this year...

[Todd Zola]

When are the AL and NL only LABR auctions? Assuming those are auctions again this year...

Always the first weekend in March -- this year the 5th and 6th. The auctions will be covered live on SXM along with the draft board on-line.

[Sharky]

Thanks Todd

[Sour Masher]

No real shockers to me. By that I mean, there didn't seem to be any hero picks of guys 50 spots higher than expected, or collective sandbagging of a guy going 50 spots lower. But I did have some mild surprises, and I'd love insights into them, as maybe I should be adjusting my perception of them.

A couple of guys I thought would go higher (would love insights into why I may be off on ranking them higher):

Steve Matz--Thor went in the 4th round, ahead of Dallas Keuchel. A bold pick, but one I get, because Thor has that kind of upside. DeGrom and Harvey were both 3rd rounders--I get that too. Two more Met SP studs worthy of high picks. But then I see Matz go with the last pick in the 10th, behind guys like Pillar, Segura, and Matt Duffy, and I'm wondering what I am missing about Matz that pushes him so far behind the other guys. Injury risk? Or am I misreading his talent, because he looks good to me when he is out there. It is hard to argue he clearly belongs ahead of more than a couple of the SPs that went ahead of him (SP is so deep these days), but given the volatility of closers, I thought he'd go ahead of a few more of them, and about a dozen of the bats as well, given his upside, which to me seems to be nearly as high as the other three.

Ben Zobrist--I was surprised to see him go a full two rounds behind Pedroia and Daniel Murphy, who seem to me to be no more than on par with Zobrist production wise, and both at least as risky. But this may be a case of my lack of draft experience coming through--as an auction guy, I look at a difference of two full rounds, and I see that meaning the room clearly values those guys as being worth a few bucks more. But in a draft, it could just be a fluke of need, right? I mean, in terms of positional ranking, Zobrist was taken just two spots after those two (ahead of him is also LeMahieu, who I also don't think is any better than Zobrist, but they at least were picked right next to each other). So, is this a case of just how this draft worked in terms of positional need, or is there a justification for putting Pedroia and Murphy clearly ahead of Zobrist?

A couple of guys I thought would go lower (would love insights into why I may be off on ranking them lower):

Miguel Cabrera--This is a nitpick. Obviously, he has the talent to more than justify being taken with the 11th pick, but all things considered, I was a little surprised he didn't go a few picks later--behind at least Donaldson and Altuve, and maybe even behind Bryant, Scherzer, and Abreu as well. Am I overreacting to his decline last year? After all, he is still just 32. Is he still the guy to take over the others I mentioned?

Dee Gordon--This is another nitpick. I know he has done it long enough now that we should realize he is legit, and I know this pick is in keeping with a lot of projections, but I was still a bit surprised that he was an early 2nd rounder, and even more so that he was so far ahead of the other top 2bman. Is it just the steals that puts him this for out front of the pack, or is it faith in the BA as well? I still see some risk in him, as it is hard for me to believe that some of his production the last couple of years isn't due for some regression, but maybe I'm just late in realizing he is a legit safe bet to steal 50+ and bat .300+?

[mkooljr1]

I can reply, since your 2 nitpick picks were made by the same owner - me!

Matz - Totally an innings thing, at least for me. Only projecting 170, which reduces his counting stats and the effect he'll have on the ratios. He only three about 138 innings last year. The 170 is actually higher than Steamer and the FanGraphs Fans, so that seems to be the hangup. I like him from a skills/ratio perspective though.

Zobrist - He was a good value where he was taken. Pedroia was about fairly valued, while Murphy was also seemingly a bargain. It's tough to compare players to each other because you're making the assumption this is the order everyone has these players ranked. Some guys, for whatever reason, get overvalued and some fall. Just draft dynamics at play with positional/categorical needs.

Cabrera - I had him valued like a buck more than Donaldson, making it essentially a coin flip. Preferred going with the player who has been doing it for a very, very long time than paying for the guy coming off what is likely going to prove to be his career year. There's also more upside in Cabrera simply due to health - if he's healthy all year, he's a steal. Going 11th already accounts for some dings here and there.

Gordon - Yes, 50+ steals are incredibly valuable. No other player contributes a higher percentage of a final season category total than the elite speedsters like he and Billy Hamilton. Obviously, he hurts you in RBI and homers, but will be an asset in runs and batting average. I'm not even expecting another .300+, and in fact only projected .286. Imagine Miguel Cabrera was forecasted for 87 homers. That's the rough equivalent of what I calculate that Gordon's projected 55 steals will earn.

[Sour Masher]

I can reply, since your 2 nitpick picks were made by the same owner - me!

Matz - Totally an innings thing, at least for me.

Zobrist - He was a good value where he was taken.

Cabrera - There's also more upside in Cabrera simply due to health - if he's healthy all year, he's a steal. Going 11th already accounts for some dings here and there.

Gordon - Yes, 50+ steals are incredibly valuable. Imagine Miguel Cabrera was forecasted for 87 homers. That's the rough equivalent of what I calculate that Gordon's projected 55 steals will earn.

Thank you very much for your detailed reply. Your statements above stand out to me.

I'm glad to hear the Matz long term love, as I own him in a keeper league. I hadn't thought that Matz' cap would be that low, given his age, and how gentle he's been brought along until now. But then thinking of his injury history, what happened to Harvey, and the Mets' depth at SP, and it makes perfect sense that they will manage his innings, and could go to a 6 man rotation at times to limit the workload of all of their guys, but especially Matz. I guess I was just comparing his ranking to Thor's, and wondering why Thor would be either projected to produce way better, and/or pitch a lot more innings. But, Thor has shown more, did pitch more innings last year, and is a bigger/stronger dude.

Regarding Miggy and Gordon, I hadn't considered that they went to the same team, and as soon as I thought about that, I saw how well they fit together as a pair of top picks. You have everything you need from Miggy but steals, and get a whole lot of that from Gordon. I really like Miggy too, and it is rare that you can land a guy at 11th that could possibly be a top 3 performer. I've just seen some other folks devalue him even more than 11, but maybe that is just shiny new toy syndrome in play.

Your Gordon line really shocks me. I've been hearing/reading/seeing speed make a bit of a come back in recent years, and power really dipping, to the point that I've begun to devalue steals more than I should, I think. It is eye opening to see that, in roto, speed is still that much more valuable than power. My valuation of steals in roto has always been skewed though, because I also have played in a points league for 20+ years where steals are just worth 2 pts. I joined my points league partly because I wanted to be in a league that didn't value Juan Pierre more than Barry Bonds . I think my points league prep has long led me to devalue hitters whose value derives almost exclusively from steals, and with the dip in power in recent years, I may have let that tendency go too far. Your calculation is a useful corrective for me.

[mkooljr1]

I will caution you however that many folks disagree with my speed valuation. I don't know who's right and there's apparently no easy way to test it. But the methodology makes sense to me and I have clearly done well using it, so I'm sticking to it. Ahhh yes, Juan Pierre. He certainly found his way onto my team many times!