2K16: Corey Seager

[DJBeasties]

What do you guys think about Seager? I like him a lot but still can't figure out what value to put on him as of February.

[joncarlos]

I don't think I like him enough to take him where he's valued (50th overall in mock one, ADP around 55th overall)

His 113 PAs in the majors were ridiculous (337/425/561, 12.4% walk rate and 16.8% k rate in 113 PAs) but I doubt the .387 BABIP is sustainable.

This is a guy who hit 278/332/451 in 105 games in the PCL... granted, it was OKC, which isn't a huge hitters park. He hit 13 HRs and had a 6.9% walk rate/14% k rate. He's only 21.

I just think he ends up a lot closer to his AAA numbers than people expect - the good contact rate keeps the AVG pretty good, but I'd put him down for something like .280-19HR-3sb, and that doesn't scream 50th overall pick to me.

Steamer has him at .265 with 16 HR and 5 SB. The fans have him at .283 with 18 HR and 9 SB.

Also, he was never a burner in the minors (9 steals in 74 games in low A was his high), and Pederson was a burner in the minors. I know Mattingly is gone but I am not convinced the Dodgers will run wild this year without him, so I'm not counting on sneaky value from Seager stealing 8-10 bases.

[DJBeasties]

I don't think I like him enough to take him where he's valued (50th overall in mock one, ADP around 55th overall)

His 113 PAs in the majors were ridiculous (337/425/561, 12.4% walk rate and 16.8% k rate in 113 PAs) but I doubt the .387 BABIP is sustainable.

This is a guy who hit 278/332/451 in 105 games in the PCL... granted, it was OKC, which isn't a huge hitters park. He hit 13 HRs and had a 6.9% walk rate/14% k rate. He's only 21.

I just think he ends up a lot closer to his AAA numbers than people expect - the good contact rate keeps the AVG pretty good, but I'd put him down for something like .280-19HR-3sb, and that doesn't scream 50th overall pick to me.

Steamer has him at .265 with 16 HR and 5 SB. The fans have him at .283 with 18 HR and 9 SB.

Also, he was never a burner in the minors (9 steals in 74 games in low A was his high), and Pederson was a burner in the minors. I know Mattingly is gone but I am not convinced the Dodgers will run wild this year without him, so I'm not counting on sneaky value from Seager stealing 8-10 bases.

Good stuff, joncarlos. I think he is very intriguing strictly on upside but also how overvalued is he and could it be exploited at an auction given how he is a potential start at SS and everyone loves a shiny new prospect. The ADP of ~50 tells me it's possible.

[The Dane]

I really like Seager. I'm suspecting this year might see a bit of a pullback as pitchers learn him and before he can adjust, but adjust he will. I think his overall numbers will look on low end of expectations with a better second half than the first. Next year, however, he's top-tier.