2k16: Carlos Rodon

[joncarlos]

2015 stats: 139.1ip, 9-6, 3.75 ERA, 139 Ks and a 1.44 WHIP. That WHIP is a killer.

K/9 of 9 but a BB/9 of 4.6. In percentages that's 22.9% K rate and 11.7% bb Rate. His FIP was 3.87 and xFIP was 4.03. Good groundball rate, which is important in The Cell... 46.8% GB, 23.4% LD, and 29.8% FB.

Maybe got a little lucky with a 75% strand rate or a little unlucky with a .315 BABIP.

Steamer has him down for 180 innings, 9.4 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and a 4.03 ERA with a more tolerable 1.35 WHIP.

Do you want to take the WHIP hit to get those tasty, tasty Ks?

By half... 66.1 innings, 41 walks and 68 Ks in the first half. In the 2nd half, 73 innings, 71 Ks, and only 30 walks. Also a better BABIP.

If you squint, you can see him building on a strong finish and going 190 innings, 3.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 200 Ks. If he got really lucky with the BABIP, maybe even more than that.

If the White Sox sign Cespedes and get Avisail Garcia (-13.8 fielding runs) out of the outfield... that would help.

I think there's something here if people are too terrified of the WHIP.

[onejayhawk]

I own Rodon, so I hope you have it right, but I am not banking on it. The White Sox defense stinks and the organization's development history is not much better. As you say, Garcia would make a big difference but he is not the only problem.

J

[joncarlos]

I own Rodon, so I hope you have it right, but I am not banking on it. The White Sox defense stinks and the organization's development history is not much better. As you say, Garcia would make a big difference but he is not the only problem.

J

I think Lawrie is a small upgrade at 2B. Maybe not since Carlos Sanchez was OK there. Frazier is pretty blah at 3B. I think they'll miss Alexei at SS. Not sure how Navarro and Avila are as framers behind the plate.

[revo]

The problem here is we have very little to go on, since he was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 34 minor league innings to examine, and even in that small sample his BB% is similar at 4.5 BB/9. But his K/9 rate was much higher, and his O-Contact and Z-Contact rates are very good, so perhaps there's room for a large improvement.

But.....and it's a very big but......if he doesn't, in a world where a great WHIP is now under 1.00 and mediocre WHIPs are 1.25, he's a WHIP-killer. Is he worth this risk? Based on his current ADP of 155, he's going around or higher than Shelby Miller, Jake Odorizzi, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander, Taijuan Walker and Julio Teheran, among others, I'd much rather take those guys instead.

[joncarlos]

Yeah, ADP of 155 doesn't seem like people are scared of the WHIP.

[Controller Jacobs]

Finished the season really strong (last 8 starts were all 6+IP, 2-ER), but allowed 3+ bb in five of those eight starts.
Sox infield (Saladino, Lawrie, Frazier) could be good defensively this year, outside of 1B. OF looks rough again - worst defensive OF in MLB?
Big split vs RHB/LHB: OPS of .799/.524
Also a big split in that whip - 1st half/2nd half 1.61/1.29

I'll say this - I would definitely bench him vs DET and TOR (teams with RHB and patience), probably BOS and NYY as well.

The type of player I plan to be outbid on.