2K16: Trevor Story

[onejayhawk]

There are too many puns on his name. Lets pretend we did all those. What I want to know is his role, because the tools and skills seem to be in place.

Story is a 2011 1st round draft pick. He has taken longer in the minors than some, but is still only 23. He has solid defense, hits for decent average with power and plus speed. The Rockies traded Troy Tulowitzki, possibly to make room for him. For a young SS in the best of all hitter's parks, what's not to like? In two words, Jose Reyes. There are other issues, to be sure. Notably his K rate has been an issue all through the minors. Still, this is the future Rockies SS. The question is when and what is he worth now? ADP is 300+.

J

[Gregg]

I like him, but Jose Reyes and the drafting of Brendan Rodgers makes me a little nervous. Does taking Rodgers with the third overall pick make Story trade bait? I am in NL only so that comes into play.

If he has a good spring could he take over UT?

[kldub4life]

I believe Story is about to start a rapid climb up rankings.

The news of Reyes going to trial can't possibly be seen as a positive sign.

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_29389840/jose-reyes-rockies-ss-facing-trial-domestic-abuse

At short in Colorado I see a 20/20 guy almost immediately, and I think his Triple slash line will be decent as the light air will benefit him.

I have him and Brandon Crawford in a dynasty, and I would like to be able to play Story at home and Crawford when the Rockies are on the road.

[onejayhawk]

Some questions. Given Reyes' attitude and legal issues, does he even own the job? Is it Story's to lose? If not, it seems likely that TS will get a real chance to win the job in camp.

Steamer 600 gives a full season projection as:

600 PA, .249/.307/.416, .723 OPS, 16 HR, 15 SB

Does that strike you as accurate or conservative, given his MiLB record and the friendly home park?

J

[onejayhawk]

He won't get a full season of ABs, barring a miracle. Those projections are very optimistic, imo. He doesn't walk, he strikes out far too much, and provides average defense at best.


My prediction: a 2016 call up, whereupon he gets a few dozen ABs and struggles mightily and gets sent back down. Of course, a lot of that changes if Reyes is suspended for a long time. Of course the job is Reyes' at this point.

Steamer 600 projects all players to 600 PA. It is not meant to be a meaningful projection of PT, but a uniform evaluation point. The regular projections are for 34 PA, just as you describe. The slash numbers are the same, of course.

Suspension or not, Reyes has been a pain. He is a shadow of the player that used to be comparable to Hanley Ramirez. The starting SS job is not a given. Story's defense is not great, but it's better than Reyes' D at this point. Reyes' speed in much diminished, he walks even less than Story and has less power.

J

[Gregg]

Steamer 600 projects all players to 600 PA. It is not meant to be a meaningful projection of PT, but a uniform evaluation point. The regular projections are for 34 PA, just as you describe. The slash numbers are the same, of course.

Suspension or not, Reyes has been a pain. He is a shadow of the player that used to be comparable to Hanley Ramirez. The starting SS job is not a given. Story's defense is not great, but it's better than Reyes' D at this point. Reyes' speed in much diminished, he walks even less than Story and has less power.

J

Sounds like somebody is a Story owner...or is about to be.

[joncarlos]

I am starting to like him more. I'm sure COL would love to move Reyes if they could. He's injury prone and likely to be suspended (maybe for a while).

I'm not convinced Story is actually all that good, but he is a Rockie. The biggest issue I see is that SS is the only spot for him - both Lemahieu and Arenado are pretty durable and very good.

[onejayhawk]

Sounds like somebody is a Story owner...or is about to be.

About to be. I was high on Story in 2013. I am less high now, but the situation is assisting his chances. He reminds of a young Ian Desmond. ID sucked until his breakout year. All that said, Chisthian Adames needs to be considered.

Reyes is now on the shelf officially, at least until the criminal situation clarifies.

https://twitter.com/MLB_PR/status/702260418740408321

J

[revo]

So with CHapman getting 30 games, and Reyes' not likely to be determined until after his court case on April 4th, he's likely to miss at least half the season. Is Story the story here now?

[Hornsby]

So with CHapman getting 30 games, and Reyes' not likely to be determined until after his court case on April 4th, he's likely to miss at least half the season. Is Story the story here now?

I don't know...the smart folks aren't particularly high on him anymore, but he's certainly going to get an opportunity. A .279 average in the minors isn't very encouraging, but the 20/80 line is. I wouldn't pay a ton for him, but if you get him cheap...

[The Dane]

Okay, how much would you pay for Danny Espinosa getting full-time ABs in Coors? I figure that's Trevor Story in 2016.

[Fresno Bob]

I'd open at 6 and see where it goes from there, but I own a bunch of Story shares so far

[onejayhawk]

Okay, how much would you pay for Danny Espinosa getting full-time ABs in Coors? I figure that's Trevor Story in 2016.

Good summary.

J

[The Dane]

Sounds about right in NL-only formats. I think he'll go around $12 or so, which will cut into his profit considerably.

[Hornsby]

Okay, how much would you pay for Danny Espinosa getting full-time ABs in Coors? I figure that's Trevor Story in 2016.

Except that Espinoza has done it consistently in the majors, and Story has struggled in the minors. He MAY be able to hit .240 with some power and speed, and then again, he may not.