2K16: Jedd Gyorko

[onejayhawk]

A mid to late round roster filler as a SS/MI. He played poorly early in 2015, was sent down, then played well on his return. SS eligible for 2016 in most formats, the big issue is playing time now that he is with the Cardinals.

Steemer projects only 218 PA and .254/.311/.423, 8HR, 0SB. The 218 PA makes sense for an OPS of .735. However there are a few things to consider. Gyorko hated his home park--.659 OPS. Steamer essentially copies his second half numbers, .259/.299/.440. Moving from SD to StL is a big park-effect difference. It will supress his HR, but boost his hits by over 9%. I wonder if Steamer takes that into account.

Gyrko is a left killer. He could pick a PT when the team rests LHH Kolton Wong or Matt Carpenter. Also Peralta is 33+. Gyrko plays adequate SS. He will ge some work even without an injury. At some point injuries he will probably force him into the lineup.

Add it up and I like him a bit better than steamer. 400 PA .270/.310/.445, 15 HR

J

[fuhrdog]

Add it up and I like him a bit better than steamer. 400 PA .270/.310/.445, 15 HR

J

I'd be shocked if he hit over .250.

[onejayhawk]

I'd be shocked if he hit over .250.

Why? He hit for average in the minors. He just missed .250 last season with a dreadful start. He was in a park that suppressed hits and is now in a park that enhances them. He hits for average against LHP. Unless someone gets hurt, that will be a big chunk of his PA. I can see the HR taking a hit before the BA.

J

[Gregg]

Why? He hit for average in the minors. He just missed .250 last season with a dreadful start. He was in a park that suppressed hits and is now in a park that enhances them. He hits for average against LHP. Unless someone gets hurt, that will be a big chunk of his PA. I can see the HR taking a hit before the BA.

J

Why?

Because his 3 year average is .236 in 1307abs and he is already 27 years old. I do not see half home games in a better park increasing that ba by .34 points. I also doubt he gets 400abs this coming year.

[onejayhawk]

That's valid to a point, but only a point. The 2014 season is an outlier in his stats. 2013 and 2015 are both 30+ points higher. Also, it is only 24 points, not 34. A 13% increase in hits, the size of the park adjustment, raises .235 to .266. Half time or not, that is a lot. Also he has been particularly bad in Petco.

J

[Gregg]

That's valid to a point, but only a point. The 2014 season is an outlier in his stats. 2013 and 2015 are both 30+ points higher. Also, it is only 24 points, not 34. A 13% increase in hits, the size of the park adjustment, raises .235 to .266. Half time or not, that is a lot. Also he has been particularly bad in Petco.

J

2013 and 2015 were both still under .250 (.249 and .247). In your post you projected a .270 ba. .270 -.236 = .34.

I do like these posts that cover lesser players as I play in deep only leagues.

He certainly will be rostered in our league. I just don't see him meeting your projections. But isn't that what makes our game interesting.

[onejayhawk]

2013 and 2015 were both still under .250 (.249 and .247). In your post you projected a .270 ba. .270 -.236 = .34.

I do like these posts that cover lesser players as I play in deep only leagues.

He certainly will be rostered in our league. I just don't see him meeting your projections. But isn't that what makes our game interesting.

The park adjustment is over 30 BA points. I crunched the numbers in the Steamer projection and got .276. I pulled it back to .270. The move will probably cost him a few HR.

J

[fuhrdog]

He is a career .260 hitter against LHP and .228 against RHP. If he gets 400 AB's and hits .270 I'll eat crow but not too worried that it will happen

[onejayhawk]

He is a career .260 hitter against LHP and .228 against RHP. If he gets 400 AB's and hits .270 I'll eat crow but not too worried that it will happen

As you say, we will see. How much time he gets against RHP matters quite a bit. A full season against LHP is about 160 AB. Say 300 AB as a baseline, split 150/150. That alone puts it at .244. Add 15 points for the park change in half the games. That puts you at .259, even allowing a .210 season to drag down the numbers.

If you start where he was playing at the end of last season, .270 is not unreasonable in the new ballpark.

J

[Sharky]

I think playing time is his big risk. Carpenter and Wong will take most of the at bats at 2b/3b. And I doubt that STL plays him at SS like SD did.

[joncarlos]

I think playing time is his big risk. Carpenter and Wong will take most of the at bats at 2b/3b. And I doubt that STL plays him at SS like SD did.

Isn't he pretty similar defensively to Peralta at this point?

[revo]

The only way he gets >400 PAs is if there's a major injury or he learns to play the outfield. 250-300 is more like it. Banking on anything more is a waste of your resources.

[onejayhawk]

The only way he gets >400 PAs is if there's a major injury or he learns to play the outfield. 250-300 is more like it. Banking on anything more is a waste of your resources.

Noted, though he is backing up 3 positions, plus any OF time. Part of that will be perceptions of his hitting. If he really is a .235 hitter, it's one thing. If he's a .250-.260 hitter it's another.

J