Which Rockie outfielder?

[james33]

NL-only 5x5 12 team, which more keepable?

CarGo $29
Blackmon $31

[revo]

more power in a power starved era. I'll take Cargo.

[joncarlos]

I trust Blackmon's floor a lot more. Speed is really hard to find. I'll take him and find power elsewhere.

[The Dane]

Frankly, I don't like either at those prices. There just really isn't much room for profit.

I chose CarGo only because I feel the upside is much higher and he's $2 cheaper. But, he's such a volatile commodity...

[Mithrandir]

Frankly, I don't like either at those prices. There just really isn't much room for profit.

I chose CarGo only because I feel the upside is much higher and he's $2 cheaper. But, he's such a volatile commodity...

I never understand this discussion about profit. You pick the best players and hope for the best. No one can predict profit. Who cares if there is room for profit. I never pay attention to the profit of each player relative to their price and seem to do pretty well.

Blackmon. Who the fuck can trust CarGo??

[The Dane]

I never understand this discussion about profit. You pick the best players and hope for the best. No one can predict profit. Who cares if there is room for profit. I never pay attention to the profit of each player relative to their price and seem to do pretty well.

We're talking about keepers here and keepers are all about profit and reducing risk. I'd be reluctant to keep CarGo at $29, but depending on the draft dynamics, I may pay $40 for him at draft. I know that may not make a lot of sense out of context, but if I'm budgeting $40 for an OF slot, I've got a list of players I want and I'd hope to not have to pay for CarGo at that point, but shit happens. I'd hope to pay that $40 for someone I liked a lot better.

You are right in that you pick the best, and if you are just hoping for bargains and trying to never overpay for any player, then you are missing the point and you'll probably lose, an have a crappy keeper list to boot. But, keepers are all about profit. If you love CarGo and you'd be ecstatic to drop $40 on him at draft and you can keep him for $29, then great, keep him. If you don't like CarGo, and you'd only go high on him if everyone else was bid up out of your range, then I'd say pass on keeping him and try to get a guy you really like at draft.

[Gregg]

I do not think you can go wrong with either of these in a 12 team NL only at these prices. That said, I voted Blackmon. He gets you some nice power and a lot of speed.

I would go CarGo if I owned Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon.

[Mithrandir]

We're talking about keepers here and keepers are all about profit and reducing risk. I'd be reluctant to keep CarGo at $29, but depending on the draft dynamics, I may pay $40 for him at draft. I know that may not make a lot of sense out of context, but if I'm budgeting $40 for an OF slot, I've got a list of players I want and I'd hope to not have to pay for CarGo at that point, but shit happens. I'd hope to pay that $40 for someone I liked a lot better.

You are right in that you pick the best, and if you are just hoping for bargains and trying to never overpay for any player, then you are missing the point and you'll probably lose, an have a crappy keeper list to boot. But, keepers are all about profit. If you love CarGo and you'd be ecstatic to drop $40 on him at draft and you can keep him for $29, then great, keep him. If you don't like CarGo, and you'd only go high on him if everyone else was bid up out of your range, then I'd say pass on keeping him and try to get a guy you really like at draft.

Sure keepers are about profit, but they are also about keeping the best players you have. Profit be damned. Because no one knows which players will produce a profit, I think it's a waste of time trying to predict which players will have what amount of profit. Time killer I guess.

I would rather lock up stats with my keepers instead of focusing on how much profit they might make.

[Gregg]

We're talking about keepers here and keepers are all about profit and reducing risk. I'd be reluctant to keep CarGo at $29, but depending on the draft dynamics, I may pay $40 for him at draft. I know that may not make a lot of sense out of context, but if I'm budgeting $40 for an OF slot, I've got a list of players I want and I'd hope to not have to pay for CarGo at that point, but shit happens. I'd hope to pay that $40 for someone I liked a lot better.

You are right in that you pick the best, and if you are just hoping for bargains and trying to never overpay for any player, then you are missing the point and you'll probably lose, an have a crappy keeper list to boot. But, keepers are all about profit. If you love CarGo and you'd be ecstatic to drop $40 on him at draft and you can keep him for $29, then great, keep him. If you don't like CarGo, and you'd only go high on him if everyone else was bid up out of your range, then I'd say pass on keeping him and try to get a guy you really like at draft.

Yep, In our keeper league both of these would go for higher than these.

There will be a lot of money this year. Paying for the best stats, I expect Goldschmidt to go for $50, Stanton will be kept at $49. Rizzo high to mid 40's, McCuthcen kept at $45.

I would be happy to have either of these at the pre-auction discount.

[Judge Jude]

it's league dynamics, too. my rule of thumb is not be as crazy as the crazy buyers - but the more crazy the league, the more you have to adjust for that, or you'll walk out with 30 bucks on the table.

(the best closers in my 5x5 league STILL go for $30 to $40. I haven't bought one in 10 to 12 years for those prices, so I've played the FA pile closely every year. and having farmhands be 5-S2 to start instead of 10-S2 drives inflation up, but some of my rivals are too timid early - creating a later bloodbath that I strive to avoid by getting to around 220 units spend fairly quickly. I can pick my spots after that.)

CarGo is FA in our league this year, and he'll go for 40 if he wins til past Opening Day for his first DL stint. I'd definitely keep him for $29 if I still had him. anybody better would go for more than 40.

[The Dane]

Sure keepers are about profit, but they are also about keeping the best players you have. Profit be damned. Because no one knows which players will produce a profit, I think it's a waste of time trying to predict which players will have what amount of profit. Time killer I guess.

I would rather lock up stats with my keepers instead of focusing on how much profit they might make.

Simply put, I don't keep players I don't like anywhere near their full price.

I don't like CarGo. Would I take him for $12? Of course I would. I'd LOVE to have him for that. I just don't like the risk he brings, but at $12, the risk is gone and he's great at that. If I'm budgeting $40 for a top-tier outfielder, I probably have a list that has name like Harper and McCutchen and maybe Braun and then some other names that I know I may HAVE to go to $40 but I'd rather not, guys like CarGo and Blackmon and Schwarber and Pollock and Kemp and Puig. I'd rather throw back (or trade) the player I don't like, in this case CarGo, and save that money to bid on the player I do, like Harper or McCutchen. Keeping a $29 CarGo takes me out of the running for those two. So, I'm looking at two possible scenarios: 1) I keep CarGo at $29 and spend $31 on another OF, or 2) I spend $50 on Harper and $10 on another OF. In that case, I make an honest assessment of my endgame skills in that league and if I trust them I go for Harper every time.

My #1 rule in drafting is this: Get players you like. If you win, it's because you saw it correctly and what you like is good. If you lose, maybe what you see as good isn't really good.

Spending $29 on a player I don't like blocks me from getting a player I do. That's a recipe for a losing season.

[tinitoys]

I own both of those players in my NL-only league but their salaries are very much different...

Blackmon $1/2016 or $11/2017-2019
Cargo $37/16

someone mentioned to me that i should keep both but given the volatile situation of Cargo getting traded...I'd rather keep Blackmon at $31

[Judge Jude]

"Spending $29 on a player I don't like blocks me from getting a player I do. That's a recipe for a losing season."

Assuming that CarGo would go for more than $29 in a keeper auction - and I can't imagine he would not - then you also have a tasty trade chip. If you don't like him and trade him for something you do like, you keep all of your $40 option analysis AND upgrade elsewhere. just dumping a $29 CarGo into the FA market when you could get something keepy is a recipe for a losing season.

[The Dane]

"Spending $29 on a player I don't like blocks me from getting a player I do. That's a recipe for a losing season."

Assuming that CarGo would go for more than $29 in a keeper auction - and I can't imagine he would not - then you also have a tasty trade chip. If you don't like him and trade him for something you do like, you keep all of your $40 option analysis AND upgrade elsewhere. just dumping a $29 CarGo into the FA market when you could get something keepy is a recipe for a losing season.

Agreed 100%. Certainly, if I thought a $29 CarGo had trade value, I'd ship him off... again, for a player or players I like. I'm not saying he has no value, just that his price and my admiration for him don't match up.

He's one of those players I'm always worried I'm going to end up with, so I make sure to toss him out when the action is hot and the prices are high. Someone always bites.

[Judge Jude]

I figured that, The Dane. maybe somebody just checked in here in the last 10 years