2k16: Carlos Correa

[revo]

The newly crowned AL ROTY had a huge campaign, hitting .279/52/22/68 with 14 SBs and had a 132 OPS+. He showed power, speed, great defense, you name it.

Entering 2016, he's vaulted to perhaps the top of the SS lists.

At age 21, what can we expect from a full year out of him? He hit 22 HRs in just 99 MLB games, but had only 28 HRs in 282 minor league games. Did he grow into his power that fast? Can we expect more, if so, how many more? Or should we brace for a decline, considering his HR/FB rate was almost twice that of the MLB average?

I haven't put too much thought into a projection, but is this out of whack?
.285 BA
87 Runs
25 HRs
85 RBIs
20 SBs

If so, where does that rank him -- top 15 overall? Top 25?

[TranaGreg]

IMO your numbers are very realistic.

The one area that I might be a bit concerned is the BA; he hit .279 in 387 ABs ... move that out to 600 ABs and I'd suspect that will drop somewhat. However as I look more closely at his minor league numbers - obp of over .400 in 2013, 2014, and during the time he was in the minors in 2015.

So overall I actually think you might be understating his numbers a touch. I'm a believer.

[madducks]

Probably top 25 by most, but i would definitely rank him in the top 15. I think the power numbers are legit and wouldn't be surprised to see 30 hr and 100 rbi in 2016. Move over Mike and Bryce to make way for the next big superstar.

[Sour Masher]

I like your projections as a realistic baseline. The reason why he is a top 15 guy for me as well is because of the upside that others have pointed out. It would not surprise me if he ended up with top 15 numbers among all hitters, and he is the clear number 1 SS for me. I am a sucker for position scarcity, so the number 1 SS, who is also very likely a top 20 hitter is definitely a top 15 guy for me.

[joncarlos]

He had a 9.3% bb rate, 18.1% k rate, and .296 BABIP. So the .279 average he posted could easily be repeatable.

Steamer says .275-22hr-21sb in 648 PA. The big question is going to be the steals. He stole 3 in 24 games at AAA and 15 in 29 games at AA last year. He stole 20 in half a season at High-A in 2014.

Going .280-25-90-8sb at shortstop is probably the 25th best player. Going .280-25-90 with 25 steals moves him up a lot. Are the Astros going to let him run? Is the potential for him to hit .300 or 35 bombs enough to ease worries about him needing 25 steals to justify a top-15 pick?

He's going to be a trendy pick in the 10-15 range. Maybe even a little higher.

[onejayhawk]

To think the Astros took flack for drafting him ahead of Byron Buxton. BB is still a stud, if he can stay healthy, but for now it looks like Houston made the right choice.

We have a BB and a CC. Who was the AA?

J

[Sour Masher]

We have a BB and a CC. Who was the AA?

J

If he doesn't have to be a stud, Arismendy Alcantara fits the bill

[luckyheel]

If he doesn't have to be a stud, Arismendy Alcantara fits the bill

This would be a good thread itself...

DD - Daniel Descalso
EE - Edwin Encarnacion
FF - Freddie Freeman
GG - Gene Garber (one of my faves, btw)

[joncarlos]

This would be a good thread itself...

DD - Daniel Descalso
EE - Edwin Encarnacion
FF - Freddie Freeman
GG - Gene Garber (one of my faves, btw)

HH - hall of famer Harry Heilmann

[mjl]

II - famous Latin pitcher Iason Isringhausen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMSK-wq3jlg)

[SlideRule]

Jacque Jones?

[SlideRule]

Kevin Kiermaier

[SlideRule]

Apparently N is tough. I had to go to BRef:

Nyls Nyman 1974-77
Nick Noonan 2013-15
Nick Neugebauer 2001-02

I don't know who any of these people are.

[SlideRule]

O gives some good names. Apparently there were people named:

Orval Overall 1905-13
Ozzie Osborn 1975

[heyelander]

To think the Astros took flack for drafting him ahead of Byron Buxton. BB is still a stud, if he can stay healthy, but for now it looks like Houston made the right choice.

We have a BB and a CC. Who was the AA?

J

Phillies starting RF Aaron Altherr?