O's folly of drafting pitchers in the 1st round

[rhd]

I havent followed the other MLB teams, but at least since 1990 my Orioles have got to have one of the worst draft records in baseball. 1990 was the year they drafted Mike Mussina in the 1st round (for the 2nd time), who just might make it to the HOF this year, and their 1st round pitcher selections from the 2 previous years worked out pretty well too (Ben McDonald and Gregg Olson). But since 1990, the O's record of drafting 1st round pitchers has been historically abysmal. Below are the sorry results. Supplemental 1st rounders arent included. WAR is from Baseball Reference:

2013 - Hunter Harvey (HS-#22 overall, $1,947,600)
Highest level so far: AA, did not pitch in 2015, currently hurt
2012 - Kevin Gausman (College-#4 overall, $4,320,000) (2.0 WAR, 273.3 MLB IP)
MLB SP, potentially at least #3-caliber
2011 - Dylan Bundy (HS-#4 overall, $4,000,000) (0.1 WAR, 1.7 MLB IP)
Currently hurt, again.
2009 - Matt Hobgood (HS-#5 overall, $2,422,000)
Highest level so far: AA. Only 9.7 IP in 2015. Currently a FA.
2008 - Brian Matusz (College-#4 overall, $3,200,000) (3.3 WAR, 519.7 MLB IP)
Effective MLB LOOGY.
2004 - Wade Townsend (College-#8 overall, didnt sign)
Signed later w Tampa and got hurt.
2002 - Adam Loewen (HS/JUCO-#4 overall, $3,200,000) (0.4 WAR, 183.3 MLB IP)
Converted to OFer, now re-converted back to pitcher. Marginal MLB RP. Currently in minors w D'Backs
2001 - Chris Smith (College-#7 overall, $2,175,000)
Highest level: Lo-A, got hurt, only 52.7 minor league IP.
2000 - Beau Hale (HS-#14 overall, $2,250,000)
Highest level: AA, got hurt.
1999 - Mike Paradis (College-#13 overall, $1,700,000)
Highest level: AAA, got hurt.
1999 - Richard Stahl (HS-#18 overall, $1,795,000)
Highest level: AAA, got hurt.
1995 - Alvie Shepherd (College-#21 overall, $650,000)
Highest level: AA, got hurt.
1993 - Jay Powell (College-#19 overall) (2.9 WAR, 542.3 MLB IP, $492,000)
Was traded to Marlins for Bret Barberie and never pitched for the Orioles in MLB. But was a somewhat effective MLB RP for several years.

13 1st Rd pitchers - 8.7 WAR, 1320.3 MLB IP total, $28,151,600 total in bonuses; 5.8 WAR, 778.0 MLB IP for Orioles. 0.5 WAR total from 6 drafted HS pitchers. Only 4 pitchers made it to MLB. Gausman still has his whole career ahead of him and it remains to be seen what, if anything, they can get from Bundy and Harvey, but this is epically bad. Story repeats over and over: they either get hurt or end up as RPs. Gausman is the exception but he hasnt really established himself yet. Avg MLB WAR per season is about 1.4 and avg MLB salary is somewhere around $4 mil so if they had spent the cumulative bonuses they paid these pitchers on FA players instead they should have gotten about 9.8 WAR, not to mention saving the salaries they paid these players, which probably is close to $10 mil or more. That actually doesnt seem so bad but it does if you consider that having cheap, good talent for several years is essential for a mid-payroll team like the O's to be competitive.

They wont win any awards for their drafted hitters either but their success w those has been a lot better (I'm ignoring the 2015 draft in which they took 2 1st-round hitters):

2010 - Manny Machado (HS-#3 overall) (17.7 WAR, 1818 MLB AB)
AS-caliber MLB 3Bman.
2007 - Matt Wieters (College-#5 overall) (14.6 WAR, 2711 MLB AB)
Solid-avg MLB C.
2006 - Billy Rowell (HS-#9 overall)
Highest level: AA, reportedly significant makeup problems.
2005 - Brandon Snyder (HS-#13 overall) (-0.2 WAR, 148 MLB AB)
Never more than MLB UT player, currently trying to make it back to MLB.
2003 - Nick Markakis (JUCO-#7 overall) (27.4 WAR, 5943 MLB AB)
Solid MLB OFer, currently w Atlanta. Had 25.5 WAR for Orioles.
2001 - Mike Fontenot (College-#19 overall) (4.5 WAR, 1413 MLB AB)
MLB UT player, never played in MLB for Orioles.
1999 - Larry Bigbie (College-#21 overall) (2.5 WAR, 1227 MLB AB)
4th/5th MLB OFer, except for 1 yr. Had 3.2 WAR for Orioles.
1999 - Keith Reed (College-#23 overall) (-0.1 WAR, 5 MLB AB)
MLB cup o' coffee.
1998 - Rick Elder (HS-#26 overall)
Highest level: Hi-A, I dont even remember this guy.
1997 - Jayson Werth (HS-#22 overall) (29.4 WAR, 4707 MLB AB)
Above-avg MLB OFer and 1-time AS but was traded to Jays for John Bale (who???) and never played in MLB for Orioles.
1997 - Darnell McDonald (HS-#26 overall) (1.3 WAR, 764 MLB AB)
Never more than MLB UT player. mostly for other clubs. Had 0.1 WAR for Orioles.
1992 - Jeffrey Hammonds (College-#4 overall) (8.6 WAR, 3032 MLB AB)
Was mostly a 4th OFer type (altho 1 AS season for Rockies) but might have been way above avg if not for injuries. Had 3.7 WAR for Orioles.
1991 - Mark Smith (College-#9 overall) (0.0 WAR, 959 MLB AB)
Never more than MLB UT player, mostly played for other MLB teams but had 0.4 WAR for Orioles.

13 1st Rd hitters - 104.4 WAR, 22727 MLB AB; 65.0 WAR for Orioles. That's 104.4 WAR vs. 8.5 WAR for the same # of hitters vs. pitchers drafted!!! 10 hitters made it to MLB. And Machado has his entire career ahead of him and Markakis, Wieters and Werth will be playing at least several more years.

I sure hope they draft some hitters in the early rounds next year.

[joncarlos]

Lots of 1st round pitchers flame out. But what should be concerning to you is that teams have generally been getting better at drafting pitchers in the last 3-5 years. I feel like whatever combination of scouting, analytics and improved front offices is out there today, teams have improved their success rate. And maybe that's why the O's just took hitters in 2015, because they couldn't find a pitcher. But missing on guys like Harvey and Bundy (if they're misses) hurts extra bad when other teams are finally getting the hang of it.

[rhd]

Lots of 1st round pitchers flame out. But what should be concerning to you is that teams have generally been getting better at drafting pitchers in the last 3-5 years. I feel like whatever combination of scouting, analytics and improved front offices is out there today, teams have improved their success rate. And maybe that's why the O's just took hitters in 2015, because they couldn't find a pitcher. But missing on guys like Harvey and Bundy (if they're misses) hurts extra bad when other teams are finally getting the hang of it.

I dont agree that teams are having much more success drafting pitchers now. Probably some improvement at identifying talent. But altho the O's might have been somewhat inept at drafting, the main reason for their woes is that practically all of their 1st-round pitcher draftees got hurt. This is the same problem that faces all teams. If I did a survey of MLB WAR of 1st round choices for all teams, I expect I'd still find a major difference between hitters and pitchers. Young pitchers continue to have major arm injuries at about the same rate as before. Until the overuse and abuse of young pitchers' arms decreases significantly, I expect that we'll see a similar percentage of pitching draftees have major injuries. And when you've had as abysmal success drafting 1st round pitchers as the O's have had, I think it's time to try changing the drafting philosophy. I would shoot for about 67% hitters in the first round and take pitchers a little later.

[Friarfan]

Matt Bush - Padres

Suck it, all other teams!

[Sharky]

Arrieta wasn't hurt. The Os just don't seem to be able to develop these guys. I think the injuries are a byproduct of that bad development.

[rhd]

Arrieta wasn't hurt. The Os just don't seem to be able to develop these guys. I think the injuries are a byproduct of that bad development.

I've wondered about that, too. Thing is that a few years ago, the 2011-2012 off-season I believe, the O's put all of their pitchers in ST camp (including Arrieta) thru bio-mechanical analysis to improve their mechanics so that 1) they'd decrease their risk of getting hurt and 2) they'd become more effective. It supposedly turned Chris Tillman's career around and helped Miguel Gonzalez a lot, too. I dont know what they're doing now w biomechanics on an ongoing basis, but maybe they are starting to mitigate their problems w young pitchers getting hurt. But since then Bundy and Harvey have gotten hurt and missed major time and their futures are uncertain. The thing about what's happening w younger pitchers is the damage they do to their arms as amateurs results in injuries after they turn pro, even if their pro team handles them correctly. That's why it's so risky drafting pitchers. Sure, you still want to draft some pitchers early because you dont want to miss the next Clayton Kershaw. But I'd try to reduce some of the risk by going less for pitchers and more for hitters early.

The thing I've heard re: Arrieta (who was a 5th rounder) is that a lot of his recent success is because of his cutter (some would call it a sharp slider), which the O's discourage their young pitchers from using (see this article: http://www.masnsports.com/steve-mele...he-cutter.html). Also, supposedly his mechanics improved after he went to the Cubs. Why his mechanics didnt improve enough after he went thru the biomechanical analysis w the O's I dont know. Like I said, part of the O's problem is questionable handling/philosophy (BTW, Bundy says his best pitch is: (you guessed it) the cutter) but I think the larger part is the riskiness of young pitchers that they keep drafting early. Look at who the Cubs have been taking w their 1st rounders in recent years.

[Moonlight J]

By comparison, Tampa Bay has taken 10 pitchers in the 1st round for a cumulative WAR of 27.5. Price is 28.1, Niemann at 4.1, and everyone else is negative.

Price
Garvin (yet to reach)
Snell (hopefully soon)
Standridge: -0.6
Brazelton: -3.0
Niemann: 4.1
Townsend: never pitches
Ames: hasn't made it
Guerrieri: hasn't made it
Stanek: hasn't made it

[Sharky]

By comparison, Tampa Bay has taken 10 pitchers in the 1st round for a cumulative WAR of 27.5. Price is 28.1, Niemann at 4.1, and everyone else is negative.

Very interesting! Would never have guessed that.

[rhd]

By comparison, Tampa Bay has taken 10 pitchers in the 1st round for a cumulative WAR of 27.5. Price is 28.1, Niemann at 4.1, and everyone else is negative.

Price
Garvin (yet to reach)
Snell (hopefully soon)
Standridge: -0.6
Brazelton: -3.0
Niemann: 4.1
Townsend: never pitches
Ames: hasn't made it
Guerrieri: hasn't made it
Stanek: hasn't made it

Yes, this further illustrates my point. You usually come up empty w early round pitching prospects but you still want to draft them sometimes because you might get a David Price.

I guess the reason I posted this now as opposed to during draft season is because of the recent news that after finally pitching a few innings in the AFL Bundy is once again hurt. I keep hoping that at least some of the O's young pitchers become studs but lately it seems like they never do. What you hear a lot around here is "pitching and defense". Longtime O's fans remember the glory days and young guys like McNally, Palmer, Wally Bunker and later Mike Flanagan, Scott McGregor and Dennis Martinez. People say "we've gotta get back the young pitching" and that I think fuels the early round pitcher draftees to some extent. What noone seems to mention is that those great Oriole teams of the 60's-mid '80s also generally had great hitting. It's important not to strike out on 1st rounders, which is why I hate to see the O's keep picking pitchers. The few successful O's pitcher draftees in recent years have come from the later rounds, like Arrieta (5th) and Eric Bedard (6th).

[rhd]

And here are the WARs for the Rays' 1st round hitters. Again, I didnt include supplemental 1st rounders:

1996 - Paul Wilder - 0 WAR
1999 - Josh Hamilton - 28.1 WAR
2000 - Rocco Baldelli - 10.2 WAR
2002 - Melvin (B.J.) Upton - 14.9 WAR
2003 - Delmon Young - 2.5 WAR
2006 - Evan Longoria - 42.6
2008 - Tim Beckham - 0.0 WAR
2009 - Levon Washington - didnt sign but 0 WAR anyway
2010 - Josh Sale - 0 WAR
2011 - Mikie Mahtook - 1.2 WAR
2011 - Jake Hager - 0 WAR
2012 - Richie Shaffer - -0.1
2013 - Nick Ciuffo - 0 WAR
2014 - Casey Gillaspie - 0 WAR

Cumulative WAR = 96.9
That's 96.9 WAR to 27.5 WAR for 1st Rd pitchers!!! Actually, only 6 pitchers from Jason's list were non-supp 1st rd but still a dramatic difference (none of the supp 1st round pitchers contributed any WAR). 8 out of 14 hitters have made it to the big show so far, w Hager, Ciuffo and Gillaspie still possible.

Amazing that Mahtook already has half as much WAR in 105 AB as Delmon in 4108 AB!

[Hornsby]

Ouch, the Twins 1st rounders are equally horrible...leaving out Kohl Stewart and Jose Barrios who are still in the pipeline.


1994 Travis Miller Left-handed pitcher Kent State University

1995 Mark Redman Left-handed pitcher University of Oklahoma

1998 Ryan Mills Left-handed pitcher Arizona State University

2000 Adam Johnson Right-handed pitcher California State University, Fullerton

2000 Aaron Heilman* Right-handed pitcher University of Notre Dame

2004 Glen Perkins Left-handed pitcher University of Minnesota

2004 Steven Waldrop Right-handed pitcher Farragut High School

2004 Matthew Fox Right-handed pitcher University of Central Florida

2004 Jay Rainville Right-handed pitcher Bishop Hendricken High School

2005 Matt Garza Right-handed pitcher California State University, Fresno

2008 Carlos Gutiérrez Right-handed pitcher University of Miami

2008 Shooter Hunt Right-handed pitcher Tulane University

2009 Kyle Gibson Right-handed pitcher University of Missouri

2009 Matthew Bashore Left-handed pitcher Indiana University

2010 Alex Wimmers Right-handed pitcher Ohio State University

2011 Hudson Boyd Right-handed pitcher Bishop Verot High School

[TranaGreg]

Been meaning to research this from the Jays perspective since you posted this. The Jays have been very active with pitchers in the first round ... better results up here but obviously lots of misses as well ...

1990 – Steve Karsay
1991 – Jeff Ware
1993 – Chris Carpenter
1993 – Jeremy Lee
1993 – Mark Lukasiewicz
1995 – Roy Halladay -
1996 – Billy Koch
2000 – Dustin McGowan
2004 – David Purcey
2004 – Zach Jackson
2005 – Ricky Romero
2007 – Brett Cecil
2007 – Trystan Magnuson
2009 – Chad Jenkins
2009 – James Paxton
2010 – Deck McGuire
2010 – Aaron Sanchez
2010 – Noah Syndergaard
2010 – Asher Wojciechowski
2011 – Tyler Beede
2011 – Joe Musgrove
2011 – Kevin Comer
2012 – Marcus Stroman
2012 – Matt Smoral
2012 – Tyler Gonzales
2013 – Phil Bickford
2014 – Jeff Hoffman

A couple of Cy Young winners in Carpenter & Halladay, names like Karsay, Romero were respectable, and active pitchers who still have solid futures in Cecil, Sanchez, Syndergaard, & Stroman. And of course Hoffman turned into Tulo this year.