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This is an abridged version of my annual "Anatomy of an Auction" post. I wound up winning with a league record (easily) 113 pts and a record 15.5 pt margin - and first title since 2007!
Let's get right to the post-mortem:
FREEZES
I walked in this year with these keepers (actual worth in parentheses):
10 for 106
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1 (41)
SP Mike Leake 1-O (9)
RP K-Rod 2-S1 (18)
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1 (16)
4 for 29, were worth 84 for $55 profit
C Yadier Molina 20-S1 (9)
302 Josh Harrison 10-S1 (11)
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2 (43)
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2 (7)
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1 (20)
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1 (10)
6 for 77, were worth 100 for $23 profit
OVERALL 10 for 106, were worth 184 for $78 profit
WOW, did not expect that amount of profit and value going into auction!
...................................
AUCTION
NEED 13 PLAYERS FOR 154 UNITS
actual value in parentheses, then my Opening Day comment, then REVIEW is from now
OF ANDREW MCCUTCHEN 37 (28) - My system has me willing to go to 42 (or maybe a smidge more), so this was a pleasant 1st-round surprise to kick off the auction. Was told later about his knee "issues" that scared owners, but he homered with 4 RBI today. love this pick for this year and beyond; I don't need him to run at all (my keepers alone swiped 124 sacks last year). NEED 12 for 117
REVIEW: With the amount of inflation in our league, this is a good buy early - and perfect for a team walking in with 183 units of value already.
SS TROY TULOWITZKI 33 (16) - 2nd-rounder is the second player to go for under my target price (of 35). He can miss a couple of weeks and I'll still make a profit. Risky, sure, but Howie Kendrick went for 32 in this auction and Votto went for 35. I'm content, and I know I'll leave the auction with lots of star hitters. NEED 11 for 84
REVIEW: Didn't quite work as he was sent to AL (well, there's a twist later), but that value meter keeps ticking up, in retrospect.
OF JAY BRUCE 24 (15) - Remember I mentioned one "reach"? Thought I had him at 20, but a buzzer-beater 21 bid left me going up the ladder. A couple of rounds had gone by, and power was going at a higher premium than speed - odd, because another owner and I have cornered the market at steals almost, so I figured the remaining speed would go for a fortune. Bruce slots well with what by now is a crazy-high AVG team. NEED 10 for 60
REVIEW: Exactly the power I needed, and worth more to me with my high AVG hitters to lessen his damage there.
OF/UT CURTIS GRANDERSON 17 (21) - This is where it gets very messy. Somehow Grandyman is not even on my availables list, and the bidding is sluggish. I'm convinced he'd list around 20, and feel like I have to buy at this price. Turns out he's too pricey here by my own reckoning, AND he's my 6th OF - so OF AND UT is off the board, only an hour into the auction. Not a good place to be. Still, at a glance he looks like a slugger whose AVG I can handle with my high AVG squad overall. And several owners still have more than 100 units, and I know the game is soon going to get very bloody. NEED 9 for 43.
REVIEW: I got a bit lucky here - he even turned a profit! Offense was shaping up nicely.
C JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA 7 (1) - Sat out for a while, and got back in with a boring but sensible pick - a C with a bit of pop. NEED 8 for 36.
REVIEW: Ok, that didn't work.
2B JEDD GYORKO 12 (7) - There are absolutely zero reasonable SP prices - examples around this stage include Cashner 16, McCarthy 14, Lackey 12, Fiers 12, Garza 10, Gee 9, DeSclafani 7 - so I zag while others zig and keep taking palatable hitters. A healthy Gyorko could be very solid, so yes please. BUT now I'm also boxed in at middle INF as well at C and OF. More than an hour to go, and for my two last hitting slots I have to get a 1B and a 1B/3B. Quite confining. And oh, yes, I haven't bought a single pitcher yet (at this point it helped that I decided to simply not worry about it, and trade later. That helped me avoid a silly, massive overpay for an SP. or did it?). NEED 7 for 24.
REVIEW: Patience somewhat paid off with 2nd-half power surge. This works, actually.
SP AJ BURNETT 6 (8) - At this point the hitting well is as dry as the pitching, and I still only own 2 SPs. I have tended to overcorrect in recent years to never taking a gamble on any SP, leaving me with good ERA/Ratio but tending to lag in W and K. This year, I'll gamble a bit on the back end even as I try to overload offense to produce tradeable excess. Weary at this point, and not bragging on this buy. NEED 6 for 18.
REVIEW: Gamble paid off, though.
SP HYUN-JIN RYU 10-DL (0)/VANCE WORLEY (0) - Even the abbreviated season of Ryu at this point is miles ahead of any other SP out there, and I can see that I can't really buy much with my remaining dough anywhere. One rival suggested I may "Ryu" the day I made this pick. I said I already "Ryu" the price. But best available athlete here. Worley a crap-shoot replacement, but again I am willing to try to get lucky. Greinke and Ziegler offer a nice head start in ERA/Ratio. NEED 5 for 8.
REVIEW: "Ryu" indeed. 10 wasted bucks.
SP/RP RAFAEL MONTERO 2 (0) - I still had three pitching slots open, his name came up and - I dunno. Nice prospect but seems blocked. League filled with Mets lovers and - whatever. NEED 4 for 6.
REVIEW: April injury rendered him irrelevant (but useful, as we'll see).
1B TYLER MOORE 3 (-1) - Brutal. Every single 1B qualifier with a pulse went into the stratosphere. The worst "starting" 1B I have ever had. We have only limited ways to replace active players, but we told Tyler to rent, not buy. Coup de grace was some chucklehead bidding 2. NEED 3 for 3.
REVIEW: At least I saw it coming. He lasted a halfs-season.
RP JONATHAN BROXTON 1 (-2) - Ok, that's better. K-Rod + Broxton for 3 units. If K-Rod rocks again, can dump Broxton down the road. NEED 2 for 2.
REVIEW: Not better, and dumped indeed.
1B/3B KRIS NEGRON 1 (-5) - Kill me now. I always have 14 hitters better than this. NEED 1 for 1.
REVIEW: Good scouting report!
SP RUBBY DE LA ROSA 1 (5) - Could be radioactive in ARI, but I couldn't get my setup man RP targets and went all-in on "risky starter" play. DONE
REVIEW: 14 wins were HUGE, and as we'll see, he fit my staff perfectly.
So 23 players, worth 284
good, but not good enough to win with no moves!
..............................
8 KEY MOVES
April 30: Reserve RMontero, activate AJ Ramos (17). Seemed blocked by Cishek at time, but patience, my little kitties! Good example of why I like a volatile end-game P or two.
May 21: Waive Worley, claim Jorge de la Rosa (3). Looks minor, but another de la Rosa that fit like a glove.
July 2: I TRADE Puig, AJ Ramos, and farmhand Josh Bell for Clayton Kershaw 44 and Anthony Rizzo LAME DUCK. Turned out to be the very moment of Puig's peak value and Kershaw's bottom (had losing record, 3.18 ERA). Ramos had closer gig by then, and Bell may get 4 years with his new club eventually (5-5-10-15 after season of 131st MLB AB).
July 16: I TRADE DL'd Harrison for Aramis Ramirez 20 (and retiring). Not huge, but the offense - 11th in HR as of July 1 - is coming around at this point.
July 23: After being rebuffed in a Giolito for Bryce Harper LAME DUCK scenario, instead I TRADE Giolioto and a cheap Polanco and spare parts for Carlos Gonzalez LAME DUCK, Matt Kemp 26, and Ben Revere 30. Risky, as we only get FAAB back for guys lost to AL - and all 3 could be. But I'm in too deep to turn back now.
Aug 6: I had most FAAB with loss of Tulo and Revere, so I get..... Yoenis Cespedes!
Aug 6: I TRADE K-Rod, farmhand Rafael Tapia (Rockies OF) and spare parts for Aroldis Chapman, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy. Lose a sweet closer keeper, but get upgrade and more Ks plus AdGonz is yet another big bat.
Aug 13: I TRADE farmhand Ryan McMahon (Rockies 3B) for Jose Reyes. Felt like overkill, but I wasn't even in first place yet! Also had Daniel Castro at SS and no way to improve via FA or trade except this.
..................................
CATEGORY FINISHES
HR - 221, 1st by 6 (CarGo 26, Bruce 26, Granderson 25, McCutchen 23, Cespedes 17)
RBI - 889, 1st by 63 (McCutchen 96, Bruce 87, Granderson 69, Molina 61, CarGo 58)
R - 882, 2nd - 53 behind 1st & 64 ahead of 3rd (Granderson 97, McCutchen 91, Gordon 86, Bruce 72, Rizzo 51)
SB - 137, 3rd - 21 and 26 behind & 21 ahead of 4th (Gordon 58, Polanco 17, Granderson 11, Bruce 9, Harrison 9)
AVG - .2662, 4th - behind .278, .270, .268 & ahead of .265 (Gordon .331, Tulo .330, McCutchen .294, CarGo .282, Kemp .279)
W - 83, 1st by 2 (Greinke 19, Rubby 14, Kershaw 11, Leake 11, Burnett 9)
SV - 76, 1st by 5 (Ziegler 29, K-Rod 25, Ramos 11, Chapman 10)
ERA - 3.17, 1st by .22 (Kershaw 1.20, K-Rod 1.41, Greinke 1.66, Ziegler 1.85, Burnett 3.10)
Ratio - 1.150, 1st by .051 (Kershaw 0.731, K-Rod 0.783, Greinke 0.844, Ziegler 0.944, Leake 1.162)
Ks - 1176, 2nd - 170 behind 1st & 12 ahead of 3rd (Greinke 200, Kershaw 163, Rubby 150, Burnett 133, Leake 119)
.............
2016 outlook: see roster below, and take out the lame ducks...
Let's get right to the post-mortem:
FREEZES
I walked in this year with these keepers (actual worth in parentheses):
10 for 106
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1 (41)
SP Mike Leake 1-O (9)
RP K-Rod 2-S1 (18)
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1 (16)
4 for 29, were worth 84 for $55 profit
C Yadier Molina 20-S1 (9)
302 Josh Harrison 10-S1 (11)
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2 (43)
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2 (7)
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1 (20)
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1 (10)
6 for 77, were worth 100 for $23 profit
OVERALL 10 for 106, were worth 184 for $78 profit
WOW, did not expect that amount of profit and value going into auction!
...................................
AUCTION
NEED 13 PLAYERS FOR 154 UNITS
actual value in parentheses, then my Opening Day comment, then REVIEW is from now
OF ANDREW MCCUTCHEN 37 (28) - My system has me willing to go to 42 (or maybe a smidge more), so this was a pleasant 1st-round surprise to kick off the auction. Was told later about his knee "issues" that scared owners, but he homered with 4 RBI today. love this pick for this year and beyond; I don't need him to run at all (my keepers alone swiped 124 sacks last year). NEED 12 for 117
REVIEW: With the amount of inflation in our league, this is a good buy early - and perfect for a team walking in with 183 units of value already.
SS TROY TULOWITZKI 33 (16) - 2nd-rounder is the second player to go for under my target price (of 35). He can miss a couple of weeks and I'll still make a profit. Risky, sure, but Howie Kendrick went for 32 in this auction and Votto went for 35. I'm content, and I know I'll leave the auction with lots of star hitters. NEED 11 for 84
REVIEW: Didn't quite work as he was sent to AL (well, there's a twist later), but that value meter keeps ticking up, in retrospect.
OF JAY BRUCE 24 (15) - Remember I mentioned one "reach"? Thought I had him at 20, but a buzzer-beater 21 bid left me going up the ladder. A couple of rounds had gone by, and power was going at a higher premium than speed - odd, because another owner and I have cornered the market at steals almost, so I figured the remaining speed would go for a fortune. Bruce slots well with what by now is a crazy-high AVG team. NEED 10 for 60
REVIEW: Exactly the power I needed, and worth more to me with my high AVG hitters to lessen his damage there.
OF/UT CURTIS GRANDERSON 17 (21) - This is where it gets very messy. Somehow Grandyman is not even on my availables list, and the bidding is sluggish. I'm convinced he'd list around 20, and feel like I have to buy at this price. Turns out he's too pricey here by my own reckoning, AND he's my 6th OF - so OF AND UT is off the board, only an hour into the auction. Not a good place to be. Still, at a glance he looks like a slugger whose AVG I can handle with my high AVG squad overall. And several owners still have more than 100 units, and I know the game is soon going to get very bloody. NEED 9 for 43.
REVIEW: I got a bit lucky here - he even turned a profit! Offense was shaping up nicely.
C JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA 7 (1) - Sat out for a while, and got back in with a boring but sensible pick - a C with a bit of pop. NEED 8 for 36.
REVIEW: Ok, that didn't work.
2B JEDD GYORKO 12 (7) - There are absolutely zero reasonable SP prices - examples around this stage include Cashner 16, McCarthy 14, Lackey 12, Fiers 12, Garza 10, Gee 9, DeSclafani 7 - so I zag while others zig and keep taking palatable hitters. A healthy Gyorko could be very solid, so yes please. BUT now I'm also boxed in at middle INF as well at C and OF. More than an hour to go, and for my two last hitting slots I have to get a 1B and a 1B/3B. Quite confining. And oh, yes, I haven't bought a single pitcher yet (at this point it helped that I decided to simply not worry about it, and trade later. That helped me avoid a silly, massive overpay for an SP. or did it?). NEED 7 for 24.
REVIEW: Patience somewhat paid off with 2nd-half power surge. This works, actually.
SP AJ BURNETT 6 (8) - At this point the hitting well is as dry as the pitching, and I still only own 2 SPs. I have tended to overcorrect in recent years to never taking a gamble on any SP, leaving me with good ERA/Ratio but tending to lag in W and K. This year, I'll gamble a bit on the back end even as I try to overload offense to produce tradeable excess. Weary at this point, and not bragging on this buy. NEED 6 for 18.
REVIEW: Gamble paid off, though.
SP HYUN-JIN RYU 10-DL (0)/VANCE WORLEY (0) - Even the abbreviated season of Ryu at this point is miles ahead of any other SP out there, and I can see that I can't really buy much with my remaining dough anywhere. One rival suggested I may "Ryu" the day I made this pick. I said I already "Ryu" the price. But best available athlete here. Worley a crap-shoot replacement, but again I am willing to try to get lucky. Greinke and Ziegler offer a nice head start in ERA/Ratio. NEED 5 for 8.
REVIEW: "Ryu" indeed. 10 wasted bucks.
SP/RP RAFAEL MONTERO 2 (0) - I still had three pitching slots open, his name came up and - I dunno. Nice prospect but seems blocked. League filled with Mets lovers and - whatever. NEED 4 for 6.
REVIEW: April injury rendered him irrelevant (but useful, as we'll see).
1B TYLER MOORE 3 (-1) - Brutal. Every single 1B qualifier with a pulse went into the stratosphere. The worst "starting" 1B I have ever had. We have only limited ways to replace active players, but we told Tyler to rent, not buy. Coup de grace was some chucklehead bidding 2. NEED 3 for 3.
REVIEW: At least I saw it coming. He lasted a halfs-season.
RP JONATHAN BROXTON 1 (-2) - Ok, that's better. K-Rod + Broxton for 3 units. If K-Rod rocks again, can dump Broxton down the road. NEED 2 for 2.
REVIEW: Not better, and dumped indeed.
1B/3B KRIS NEGRON 1 (-5) - Kill me now. I always have 14 hitters better than this. NEED 1 for 1.
REVIEW: Good scouting report!
SP RUBBY DE LA ROSA 1 (5) - Could be radioactive in ARI, but I couldn't get my setup man RP targets and went all-in on "risky starter" play. DONE
REVIEW: 14 wins were HUGE, and as we'll see, he fit my staff perfectly.
So 23 players, worth 284
good, but not good enough to win with no moves!
..............................
8 KEY MOVES
April 30: Reserve RMontero, activate AJ Ramos (17). Seemed blocked by Cishek at time, but patience, my little kitties! Good example of why I like a volatile end-game P or two.
May 21: Waive Worley, claim Jorge de la Rosa (3). Looks minor, but another de la Rosa that fit like a glove.
July 2: I TRADE Puig, AJ Ramos, and farmhand Josh Bell for Clayton Kershaw 44 and Anthony Rizzo LAME DUCK. Turned out to be the very moment of Puig's peak value and Kershaw's bottom (had losing record, 3.18 ERA). Ramos had closer gig by then, and Bell may get 4 years with his new club eventually (5-5-10-15 after season of 131st MLB AB).
July 16: I TRADE DL'd Harrison for Aramis Ramirez 20 (and retiring). Not huge, but the offense - 11th in HR as of July 1 - is coming around at this point.
July 23: After being rebuffed in a Giolito for Bryce Harper LAME DUCK scenario, instead I TRADE Giolioto and a cheap Polanco and spare parts for Carlos Gonzalez LAME DUCK, Matt Kemp 26, and Ben Revere 30. Risky, as we only get FAAB back for guys lost to AL - and all 3 could be. But I'm in too deep to turn back now.
Aug 6: I had most FAAB with loss of Tulo and Revere, so I get..... Yoenis Cespedes!
Aug 6: I TRADE K-Rod, farmhand Rafael Tapia (Rockies OF) and spare parts for Aroldis Chapman, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jonathan Lucroy. Lose a sweet closer keeper, but get upgrade and more Ks plus AdGonz is yet another big bat.
Aug 13: I TRADE farmhand Ryan McMahon (Rockies 3B) for Jose Reyes. Felt like overkill, but I wasn't even in first place yet! Also had Daniel Castro at SS and no way to improve via FA or trade except this.
..................................
CATEGORY FINISHES
HR - 221, 1st by 6 (CarGo 26, Bruce 26, Granderson 25, McCutchen 23, Cespedes 17)
RBI - 889, 1st by 63 (McCutchen 96, Bruce 87, Granderson 69, Molina 61, CarGo 58)
R - 882, 2nd - 53 behind 1st & 64 ahead of 3rd (Granderson 97, McCutchen 91, Gordon 86, Bruce 72, Rizzo 51)
SB - 137, 3rd - 21 and 26 behind & 21 ahead of 4th (Gordon 58, Polanco 17, Granderson 11, Bruce 9, Harrison 9)
AVG - .2662, 4th - behind .278, .270, .268 & ahead of .265 (Gordon .331, Tulo .330, McCutchen .294, CarGo .282, Kemp .279)
W - 83, 1st by 2 (Greinke 19, Rubby 14, Kershaw 11, Leake 11, Burnett 9)
SV - 76, 1st by 5 (Ziegler 29, K-Rod 25, Ramos 11, Chapman 10)
ERA - 3.17, 1st by .22 (Kershaw 1.20, K-Rod 1.41, Greinke 1.66, Ziegler 1.85, Burnett 3.10)
Ratio - 1.150, 1st by .051 (Kershaw 0.731, K-Rod 0.783, Greinke 0.844, Ziegler 0.944, Leake 1.162)
Ks - 1176, 2nd - 170 behind 1st & 12 ahead of 3rd (Greinke 200, Kershaw 163, Rubby 150, Burnett 133, Leake 119)
.............
2016 outlook: see roster below, and take out the lame ducks...
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