Early Keeper Question

[onejayhawk]

I have geared up for a 2016 run. 16 team, big roster, MI,CI, 4 OF, 10 P.

These are the mandatory keepers:

Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B
Robinson Canó Sea - 2B
Andrew McCutchen Pit - OF

These are the other no brainers, with option cost:

Kole Calhoun LAA - OF (6)
José Fernández Mia - SP (8)
Matt Harvey NYM - SP (9)
Carlos Rodon ChC - SP (17)
Kelvin Herrera KC - RP (23)

I have a couple of close calls. Mandatory keepers count as three rounds:

Adrián Béltre Tex - 3B (costs the 4th round, which 3rd or 4th overall pick, after keepers) He might be right at value.
Jean Segura Mil - SS (5th round, probably about 12th overall, after keepers)

I need to pick 7 of the following. If the option round is locked I included it. Yelich costs most, call it redraft #125. Each of these players comes with at least a one year option. Lower ranked on Yahoo 2016 (Giolito) will come with two option years:

Jedd Gyorko SD - 2B,SS
Cory Spangenberg SD - 2B,3B
Christian Yelich Mia - OF (10)
Anthony Gose Det - OF
Ketel Marte Sea - 2B,SS

Nathan Karns TB - SP
Tyler Clippard NYM - RP
Hunter Strickland SF - RP
Edward Mujica Oak - RP

Danny Santana Min - SS,OF
J.P. Crawford Phi - SS
Trevor Story Col - SS
Devon Travis Tor - 2B
Carlos Carrasco Cle - SP,RP (11)
Lucas Giolito Was - SP (16)
Sean Newcomb LAA - SP

Thoughts?

J

[mjl]

my thoughts:

1) I have no idea what your structure actually means, so I'm just going to talk about players I like.
2) Beltre is pretty marginal, I wouldn't keep Segura.
3) Karns, Carrasco, Travis are definites. Yelich and Gyorko are mostly because I'm not thrilled about the rest of the list. I'd probably keep Crawford and Giolito from the rest mostly because I don't want to muck up my active roster with the others, although I could see an argument for Marte maybe over Gyorko.

[onejayhawk]

I can see a rotation of Harvey, Fernandez, Carrasco and Karns, and Rodon with Giolito in reserve. Your roster, before draft is

1B Goldschmidt
2B Cano
SS Gyorko/Marte
MI Travis
OF McCutchen
OF Calhoun
OF Yelich

SP Harvey
SP Fernandez
SP Carrasco
SP Karns
RP Herrera
P Rodon

BN Crawford SS
BN Giolito SP

I would need to draft a 3B, a CI, an OF and most of a bullpen. In this league, that is doable, particularly the bullpen.

J

[SlideRule]

Why is Herrera a definite? I mean, he's a good reliever and all, but he's eminently replaceable. I am assuming Davis is closer next year. Plenty of good-ratio RPs to not need to waste a keeper spot on Hererra and instead spend it on someone better like Travis or Carrasco or Karns. You like Hererra better than Clippard?

[onejayhawk]

Marte can bump Gyorko and fill SS for a year. The others come down to who I can keep on a list of 6 possibilities. If Carrasco and Travis are definite, that leaves four slots. That means four of
Yelich
Crawford,
Story
Karns
Giolito
Newcomb

Giolito has the advantage of a locked 2nd year option.

J

[onejayhawk]

I can see a rotation of Harvey, Fernandez, Carrasco and Karns, with Giolito in reserve. Your roster, before draft is

1B Goldschmidt
2B Cano
SS Gyorko
MI Travis
OF McCutchen
OF Calhoun
OF Yelich

SP Harvey
SP Fernandez
SP Carrasco
SP Karns
RP Herrera

BN Crawford SS

I would need to draft a 3B, a CI, an OF and most of a bullpen. In this league, that is doable, particularly the bullpen.

Why is Herrera a definite? I mean, he's a good reliever and all, but he's eminently replaceable. I am assuming Davis is closer next year. Plenty of good-ratio RPs to not need to waste a keeper spot on Hererra and instead spend it on someone better like Travis or Carrasco or Karns. You like Hererra better than Clippard?

Really low option cost and three option years. This leagues uses holds. Even if Davis is the closer, Herrera has solid value. Clippard would take one of the six slots. Herrera does not.

J

[onejayhawk]

Again, not sure I understand what is really happening here but I'd keep the four minor leaguers from that group. What is an "option cost"? What is a "locked 2nd year option"? What are the numbers following the players' names? What does it mean that "mandatory keepers count as three rounds"? What does "costs the 4th round, which 3rd or 4th overall pick, after keepers" mean? Are you saying that Beltre is worth the 3rd or 4th overall pick?

We have three unrestricted keepers, which we must take. Mine are all studs--Goldschmidt, Cano, McCutchen. After that everything is based on options. If a player is taken in the first 8 rounds, he can only be kept with one of these or with your first pick. Your first pick, technically the fourth round of the draft, serves as the option for any player. In this case, my first pick will be 3rd or 4th overall. I can spend the pick on Beltre and end any speculation.

In 2015 the first five picks were JUpton, CarGo, Kemp, Pujols and Cespedes.
In 2014 the first five were Joey Bats, Scherzer, Carlos Santana, Hamels, Jose Abreu

If I keep Beltre I give up the pick in a group similar to those. Usually there are about 3-4 no brainers that are cut due to numbers crunch. The guy with the worst record has the 1st pick. Last year he won and had to cut Pujols. This year it could happen again. The guy that picked Upton made the finals.

Typically over 200 players are kept. Call it 100 of the top 125, plus many prospects. For example, I kept Rodon and Giolito. Only a few of the top 80 will be in the draft. They go quickly. After about ten picks it levels a bit. RP is more available than SP. Power is always premium.

J

[mjl]

ok, I would no question cut Beltre then. If nothing else I can't imagine a situation where he isn't still available for you to repick if you really care. He's a .280 hitter with around 20 HR if you project to a full season.

[Gregg]

We have three unrestricted keepers, which we must take. Mine are all studs--Goldschmidt, Cano, McCutchen. After that everything is based on options. If a player is taken in the first 8 rounds, he can only be kept with one of these or with your first pick. Your first pick, technically the fourth round of the draft, serves as the option for any player. In this case, my first pick will be 3rd or 4th overall. I can spend the pick on Beltre and end any speculation.

In 2015 the first five picks were JUpton, CarGo, Kemp, Pujols and Cespedes.
In 2014 the first five were Joey Bats, Scherzer, Carlos Santana, Hamels, Jose Abreu

If I keep Beltre I give up the pick in a group similar to those. Usually there are about 3-4 no brainers that are cut due to numbers crunch. The guy with the worst record has the 1st pick. Last year he won and had to cut Pujols. This year it could happen again. The guy that picked Upton made the finals.

Typically over 200 players are kept. Call it 100 of the top 125, plus many prospects. For example, I kept Rodon and Giolito. Only a few of the top 80 will be in the draft. They go quickly. After about ten picks it levels a bit. RP is more available than SP. Power is always premium.

J

No way do I keep Beltre given this.

[onejayhawk]

That's where I was at. If I was picking late in the round, it might be different. As you say, I can probably get Beltre back if I want him. Segura, 16 picks later, is also a no go unless something changes this winter. Segura's option, round 5, would be about #90 in a redraft league.

Options I will exercise are Calhoun (round 6), Fernandez (8) and Harvey (9). Next year Fern has to be an unrestricted keeper, but Harvey has one more option. Rounds 10-17 are mostly for WW pickups, which is the bulk of my list.

J