Chicken or the Egg? Home Field Advantage for Playoffs

[Sharky]

Can any of our statistically minded friends help answer this question?

Home field advantage in the playoffs seems to confer a real advantage and improve a team's odds of winning or advancing. But home field advantage results from having a better record. So is it cause or effect? Does home field advantage itself matter? Or is it simply a reflection / result of being a better team?

Thanks!! I assume some regression analysis can answer the question. But I haven't got easy access to the data or ability & time to run the analysis.

[rhd]

Can any of our statistically minded friends help answer this question?

Home field advantage in the playoffs seems to confer a real advantage and improve a team's odds of winning or advancing. But home field advantage results from having a better record. So is it cause or effect? Does home field advantage itself matter? Or is it simply a reflection / result of being a better team?

Thanks!! I assume some regression analysis can answer the question. But I haven't got easy access to the data or ability & time to run the analysis.

Actually, I read an article awhile ago that said that the home field advantage is much less in the post-season than in the regular season. IIRC HF advantage is about 55% or so in regular season but only about 51%-52% in post-season. Still a slight advantage but there arent enough post-season games for this to show up in any 1 post-season. So it may not make much difference. I can try and find the article, if you like (Hardball Times, I believe).

That said, your premise might be correct (correlation w/o causation). I dont know. But I think it may be mostly insignificant either way.