RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects (Special "Deaccat" Edition)

[rhd]

Profar is far outside the limits, but where would he be now. After the injuries, is he still a #1 prospect type?

J

Thanx for response, J.

Profar is still very desirable but I wouldnt put him anywhere near #1 overall. He's missed so much time, I dont know exactly where I'd put him. I guess he'd be similar in wild card status tp Hector Olivera, w similar health concerns and a bit more upside. Olivera is #30 on the list now so Profar would probably be in the 20-30 range.

[wannabegriffey]

Hey RHD

So this 2b guy...Colin Walsh...came to the A's from St.Louis and hit pretty big in 2015. BIG like 124 walks, 40 doubles, 17 sb's, even chipped in with 13 home runs.

His history is strong walk rates and good contact (.290 or better b.a. in 3 of the last 4 seasons). He'll be 25 in 2016. Is his defense good enough ? I play on base % roto so those walks are very attractive...

[rhd]

Hey RHD

So this 2b guy...Colin Walsh...came to the A's from St.Louis and hit pretty big in 2015. BIG like 124 walks, 40 doubles, 17 sb's, even chipped in with 13 home runs.

His history is strong walk rates and good contact (.290 or better b.a. in 3 of the last 4 seasons). He'll be 25 in 2016. Is his defense good enough ? I play on base % roto so those walks are very attractive...

Thanx for the response, wannabegriffey.

Dont know much about Walsh. Pretty old for AA. Stats are good, not great, altho he certainly can draw a walk. Has never been in BA's League top 20 or Team top 30. The only report I saw on him was from 2012, which said that he has the athleticism to play 2B. Not on my list.

[whalewang]

Alen Hanson fell out of BA's team top 10. Will that push him out of your top 100 going forward?

[wannabegriffey]

Adam Walker has lead his league in hr/rbi three years running. Takes enough walks, maybe strikes out too much but not on your list. I guess you do not see him getting regular at bats in the bigs...

[rhd]

Alen Hanson fell out of BA's team top 10. Will that push him out of your top 100 going forward?

Thanx for the response, whalewang.

Yes, he's fallen to #130 now. But what really did it for me was the comment in the BA chat that a lot of scouts see him as a UT player now.

[rhd]

Adam Walker has lead his league in hr/rbi three years running. Takes enough walks, maybe strikes out too much but not on your list. I guess you do not see him getting regular at bats in the bigs...

Walker is another story. He's supposed to have some of the greatest raw power in the minors so the HRs are legit. But he strikes out a ton. K rate in 2015 was 34.8% which is red flag territory even for me. BA's never ranked him in their Twins top 10. His report says he's athletic and even has some speed so he maybe can remain at corner OF. The K's really scare me tho. Definitely on my list but not all that close to the top 150.

[rhd]

FYI, today Fangraphs has the text of an article that says basically that Shohei Otani currently is the 6th-best pitcher in the world. The original article is from the neifi.com site, altho I couldnt find it there so here's the link to the FG article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-b...-in-the-world/.

Note that the 3rd chart (best peak projections SPs 24 y/o and under) has another Japan Leagues pitcher, Shintaro Fujinami. He's not in my top 150 yet because I dont expect him to come to MLB, if ever, for a long time because he's under team control for at least another 6 years. Otani also is under team control for at least another 6 years but Otani is supposed to have a deal where he can demand to be posted at any time. I would expect he'll make this demand in the next 1-3 years. And he's already expressed his desire to eventually pitch in MLB. That's why he's on the list.

[rhd]

Otani would elicit massive, massive bidding if we were back in the old bidding system and he got posted. Hell, not only did the kid have great years pitching as a 19 and 20 year old, he had an OPS of .842 in 212 ABs!

Yeah, currently he's a part-time 2-way player. This supposedly was another agreed upon item when he signed that he's allowed to hit when he's not pitching. This is another item for contemplation when he comes over to MLB: whether he'll demand to continue hitting and how this will affect his value and his negotiations. Altho he had a .842 OPS in 2014, this year was not so good as he OPSed only .628 in 109 ABs.

[rhd]

The Hiroshima Carp will post Kenta Maeda. I'm super intrigued by this guy.

Here are two really great articles about him:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/10/31/9640472/japanese-pitcher-kenta-maeda-what-can-we-expect-scouting-report

http://irfast.blogspot.com/2013/03/k....html?spref=tw (from 2013)


I think there's less to like for fantasy purposes than for real life purposes, though. I'm not sure he'll be a massive strikeout guy here but I think he has some nice potential. I think he'll be able to maintain decent ratios, though. We'll see.

I've moved him up on my list. When he signs, I'll probably move him up a little more. Previously, he was considered to be a back-end SP in the MLB, but now some think he could be as good as a #3 starter as his changeup has improved (see http://www.baseballamerica.com/inter...e-kenta-maeda/ - subscription-only). I expect he'll get the $20 mil max bid from several teams.

[onejayhawk]

I have two questions. What did you think of Fangraphs KATOH projections generally? What's your timetable for preseason?

Thanks for all you do. Best wishes for the New Year.

J

[rhd]

I have two questions. What did you think of Fangraphs KATOH projections generally? What's your timetable for preseason?

Thanks for all you do. Best wishes for the New Year.

J

Thanx for the response, J.

Sorry for the late response, but my computer went kaput and it probably will be another week or so until I get a new one.

I dont pay much attention to KATOH. Not a knock, I just dont pay attention to it. I dont think much of prospect projections generally. I consider that much more of a crapshoot even than prospecting generally.

I plan to have my preseason Top 150 list up soon after BA finishes their team Top 10s, which should be by the end of this month or so. Let me know if you need something earlier than that.

[onejayhawk]

What's your take on the Jose Reyes/Trevor Story situation? How will it affect his ranking?

J

[rhd]

What's your take on the Jose Reyes/Trevor Story situation? How will it affect his ranking?

J

Thanx for the response, J.

I'm not too excited about Story's prospects for 2016. First, BA ranks him 8th in the Rockies' system and probably wont be in their top 100. Second, Reyes may not be very good any more but he's being paid a lot of money and is signed thru 2017. And nobody wants him so he'll be very difficult to trade. So, it probably will take an injury for Story to get a chance soon and even if Reyes gets injured, which is very possible, Cristhian Adames might be the fill in for 2016. Because of his power/speed potential, I still have him ranked pretty high at #56 (probably too high).

[joncarlos]

Whither Dan Vogelbach?