Axford for Jon Gray?

[overkill94]

12-team NL-only keeper league

Just got offered:
John Axford ($10 through 2017)
for
Jon Gray ($3 through 2017 assuming he gets called up this year)

Sitting in 2nd but with almost no chance of catching 1st. At this point I'm a little worried about dropping to 3rd even though I still have a 15 point cushion. Been clawing my way up the saves ladder after trading for Papelbon and picking up Motte (left the draft with only Rosenthal).

There are a few things that are keeping me from automatically clicking accept:
- will Axford get dealt and become a setup guy?
- does Gray have the upside to overcome the Coors factor? He's been pretty dominant of late in AAA
- is there any chance Axford lands a closing gig in the offseason? (I think he's a FA after this year)

[chancellor]

I'd do it, but that's premised on:

- I don't think Ax will get traded. Only team that might take a shot on him would be the Cards.
- I just don't see Gray succeeding at Coors.
- very low chance Ax lands a closing gig unless Colorado re-signs him

[revo]

Nah, unless you'll get his AL stats if he's traded. Clearly the Axford owner is spooked by this report:

FOX Sports' Jon Morosi reports that the Tigers are among the clubs that have inquired on John Axford.
Axford is having a surprisingly good season in Colorado with a 2.36 ERA and 16 saves. It's not a given at this point that the disappointing Tigers will be buyers at the trade deadline, but they could use some bullpen help if they do decide to make upgrades. Jul 19 - 3:11 PM

[overkill94]

We don't grandfather so Axford would be worthless if he's traded to the AL