Harper for Giolito go-for-it deal?

[Judge Jude]

I'm pretty much all in already (see roster below - added Kershaw, Rizzo, Aramis recently) and the big chip in the block right now is lame duck Harper.

and the big rebuilder catch available is my farmhand Lucas Giolito - who would be 5-S2 in the year AFTER he pitches his 51st MLB inning, then 5-S1, 10-L2, 15-L1 and out if he pans out.

I made basically this offer (plus throw-in Tyler Moore 3-S2 and a 2nd-rd April pick), and was rebuffed for now.

HQ projected final standings after moves (I had 9 All-Stars, Harper would be 10, and no one else had more than 3) is me winning 104 to 96.5 to 83.5 to 78.

So only one team in the margin of error, barring wacky results.

Thing is, the 96 and 83 teams are the ones just ahead of me for now, and they are running top 2 in all the power categories. One of them has little to offer to a dumper, and the other does but what he really needs is a stud SP and the market doesn't seem to have one.

I also have a cheap Polanco 5, but I don't feel a burning need to increase this offer (I could argue it's too much, but if I dial it back he could just take a little less elsewhere out of spite I suppose).

I tend to the "slash and burn, flags fly forever, any means necessary" camp, but this could be one instance where I resist. I am forecast to place in top 2 in every category except HR and RBI, and Harper could net me maybe 5 hitting pts all told. So I want, but to me the market tips heavily in my favor and I want to stand my ground....

[virgonomic]

HQ projected final standings after moves (I had 9 All-Stars, Harper would be 10, and no one else had more than 3) is me winning 104 to 96.5 to 83.5 to 78.

So only one team in the margin of error, barring wacky results.

One key injury could turn things sideways. Foot on the throat. Get another piece if it's there.

[Judge Jude]

fair point. he has precious little else to offer, though. pretty much all keepers or dead weight.

I think he's overplaying his hand. another team or two may surrender in the next week. I will start mining their rosters, and if I can get a decent return for other pieces, I could do that. within these farm rules, and this being later July and not mid-May, he's offering less of a blue chip now.

if my main rival had Corey Seager and needed offense, I'd be tossing in free lawn care for a year. but the needs and wants of the dumper and rivals are terribly mismatched.

[chancellor]

Looks like you've read the field. A public offer of Giolito would generate some interest I'd expect.

[Gregg]

I'm pretty much all in already (see roster below - added Kershaw, Rizzo, Aramis recently) and the big chip in the block right now is lame duck Harper.

and the big rebuilder catch available is my farmhand Lucas Giolito - who would be 5-S2 in the year AFTER he pitches his 51st MLB inning, then 5-S1, 10-L2, 15-L1 and out if he pans out.

I made basically this offer (plus throw-in Tyler Moore 3-S2 and a 2nd-rd April pick), and was rebuffed for now.

HQ projected final standings after moves (I had 9 All-Stars, Harper would be 10, and no one else had more than 3) is me winning 104 to 96.5 to 83.5 to 78.

So only one team in the margin of error, barring wacky results.

Thing is, the 96 and 83 teams are the ones just ahead of me for now, and they are running top 2 in all the power categories. One of them has little to offer to a dumper, and the other does but what he really needs is a stud SP and the market doesn't seem to have one.

I also have a cheap Polanco 5, but I don't feel a burning need to increase this offer (I could argue it's too much, but if I dial it back he could just take a little less elsewhere out of spite I suppose).

I tend to the "slash and burn, flags fly forever, any means necessary" camp, but this could be one instance where I resist. I am forecast to place in top 2 in every category except HR and RBI, and Harper could net me maybe 5 hitting pts all told. So I want, but to me the market tips heavily in my favor and I want to stand my ground....

If I read this right, you end up with 104 points if you stand pat and have no injuries. You mention that you are just behind the player with 83. That means you are at least 14 points behind first place. This seems like a lot. if you trust HQ projections you win going away. I am thinking you may be overreacting to the seemingly large mountain to climb. If correct you are really only insuring against injury. Each day or week that passes risk that matters goes down. On top of that you really do not to win by more that 8 points.

All this to say, I would not increase the offer. In fact I might pull the trade off the table.

[Judge Jude]

"That means you are at least 14 points behind first place."

no, currently I am 3rd in a 91-87-82-79 race. but adding Kershaw will jet me up in pitching, and Rizzo helps the offense (and Harper would help more there). we have a Thurs deadline each week, so this weekend I'll look more closely at what's out there and send out some feelers to fence-sitters. One guy in particular is tough to deal with but loves him some Giolito. I'll see what's in his cupboard...

[joncarlos]

So, if I was in 1st and projected to win by 7.5, I might be tempted to take my foot off the gas a little. No way would I ever take my foot off the gas if I wasn't actually in 1st place yet. No matter what the projections say.

[Judge Jude]

well, offering Giolito for Harper is not taking the foot off the gas

the question is if adding more is pushing my foot onto the pavement

[chancellor]

well, offering Giolito for Harper is not taking the foot off the gas

the question is if adding more is pushing my foot onto the pavement

At this point, yes. It'd be different if the Harper owner were your only option. And I'd think Giolito would command a pretty hefty ransom if multiple owners get in on the bidding.

[overkill94]

Seems like a more than fair offer - a keeper like Giolito would fetch more than Harper in my league

[Judge Jude]

Very astute farm guy who has ex-farmhands Bryant, ARussell, Soler, Lamb, Rendon, CMartinez, Wacha, AWood, Teheran on his MLB roster and Urias, Glasnow, Shipley, and two recent June 1st rders in the wings is the biggest Giolito fan.

he's currently 10th, and while he's clearly underachieved (Kemp, CarGo, Hamels, Teheran, AWood etc) and doesn't rush to dump, he may be "in that place."

HQ projects Harper for $32 rest of season.

he's got an overpriced Votto 35, projected to $25 finish. not a keeper unless a huge surge, so tradeable.

CarGo (yeah, COL one) is lame duck. risky because he could go to AL, though I would get $20 for FAAB that only can be used for AL arrivals. so easily could land me the best AL arrival in return (yeah, if there is one of note).

but if CarGo feels like almost a throw-in, it could work. he's got CRuiz at $10, he's old and can't see as keeper but projects to $8 and my 2nd C is Salty (.120 and now on DL). only FOUR NL Cs are available in FA and Maldonado is busiest. none project above $0 value, so getting Votto and CRuiz alone for Giolito puts me at virtually same the projected offensive upgrade as Harper. and CarGo has mashed the last 3 weeks.

no reason he can't toss me a reserved AReed as well at $18; worthless to him but a little Ziggy insurance for me.

if that deal got done, I could still move Polanco 5 (or 10 in 2016 and 15 in 2017) and another farm chip like Kolek or Tapia for Harper as well. or would I even need to bother at that point?

#beastmode

[overkill94]

I seriously doubt Ruiz is an $8 player this year - he's been awful and losing PT to Rupp. I guess it's worth it if you get Votto AND CarGo (especially if that's all this guy has to give) but I'd be more focused on upgrading your SP and 2nd catcher than focusing on CI or OF.

[Judge Jude]

thanks for the reply.

all the peripherals are in place for Ruiz last 31 days (yes, small sample size, but .312 xBA and a much longer track record of success than failure).

as for SP, I'm already projected to finish 1st in ERA and 2nd in Ratio, K, and W.
I'm easily 2nd in ERA and Ratio right now, with only 2 starts from Kershaw so far - I trail the magic beans team of Lorenzen, Bolsinger, plus Niese only for his last 7 good starts, ticking Rosenthal, etc. I'll also be actual 2nd in K in about 2-3 weeks. W, of course, always a big wild card and I'll monitor that.

also trying for a deal that includes a lame duck Lucroy (sneaky peripherals may may it feel like he's giving little there), plus he has overpriced Goldy (if 45 is overpriced), AdGonz 36, Chapman and Kimbrel (AL worries?), etc.

[Judge Jude]

ok, got an offer of (with HQ rest of season estimates in parentheses)
Votto 26
CarGo 20
Revere 29
CRuiz 6

for
Giolito
GPolanco 14
CRobinson 4
TMoore 0
C replacement -1

notes:
- Polanco can be 5 in 2016 and out, or 10 in 2016 with 15 in 2017 option, so giving more up than just LGio.
- to update CarGo concerns, I'd only climb to 2nd in FAAB if he goes to AL, so possible getting him adds very little.

thoughts? better than just the Harper for Giolito angle?

[Judge Jude]

geesh, the Harper owner wants Giolito AND Polanco AND farmhands Jon Gray and Tyler Kolek AND a June 2016 pick (which if I struggle next year could be a top 4 pick easy).

So the Votto offer - that's about 1,000 times better, right?

waiting to hear from the guy who has Goldschmidt 45 and AdGonz 36, among others......