2K17: Billy Hamilton

[revo]

With a four-bagger yesterday, he's up to 40 SBs through 75 games. That's an 86 SB pace for the season, which would be the most in MLB since the Henderson/Coleman heyday of the 1980s.

How many do you think he ends up with?

[TranaGreg]

I say he goes crazy in Sept & ends up with 101.

[Gregg]

He still has to get on base. So I went with 80-89. I do not expect him to have a significant increase in that area.

[james33]

I'll go 100. He improves his OBP as the year goes on, realizes 100 is in spitting distance, and gets it.

[joncarlos]

Worst hitter in the majors. Steals another five bags in the midst of a 1-50 run at the plate, gets demoted, out of baseball by the end of 2016.

Except he's a 2-win player with his glove alone. And the Reds are going nowhere this year. There's no reason to think they don't keep running him out there at least this season. And then what are their other options in 2016? Their whole org is a little short on CFs.

[Moonlight J]

I can't find my earlier work, but I found that SB totals decline later in the season as legs tire over the final weeks. That's why I have him in the 70's somewhere

[madducks]

I can't find my earlier work, but I found that SB totals decline later in the season as legs tire over the final weeks. That's why I have him in the 70's somewhere

This. A stolen base total of 80+ is sacred ground reserved for the legends of base stealing. Maybe Hamilton gets there in future years if he ever learns how to hit.

[TranaGreg]

I say he goes crazy in Sept & ends up with 101.

I just realized my finger slipped on this one, I meant to say 61.

[Gregg]

In 2014 he had 56 sbs in in 563 abs. He was caught 23 times. He batted .250.

YTD he has 51 sbs in 352 abs. He has been caught 7 times. He is batting .222.

Projecting his .222 ave to 553 abs he ends up with 80 sbs and 11 cs.

He may not have gotten better at hitting but his ability to steal is getting better.

His walk rate is about the same. Strangely his strikeouts are on pace to be better by about 19 or 20%.

[luckyheel]

In 2014 he had 56 sbs in in 563 abs. He was caught 23 times. He batted .250.

YTD he has 51 sbs in 352 abs. He has been caught 7 times. He is batting .222.

Projecting his .222 ave to 553 abs he ends up with 80 sbs and 11 cs.

He may not have gotten better at hitting but his ability to steal is getting better.

His walk rate is about the same. Strangely his strikeouts are on pace to be better by about 19 or 20%.

Interesting...he is walking the same, striking out less...one would have to assume it means he's been unlucky this year with BABIP, and he is 40 points below his 2014 BABIP But if you look at his advanced stats, there are no clear outliers as to why his BA is so much lower. His ground ball rate is ~1.5% lower and his fly ball rate is about 1.5% higher which essentially is a 3% change from ground ball to fly ball...that could account for it since he has essentially no power, so his fly balls are likely going to be caught. But then you look at his infield hit % and it's gone up 2%. So, even though he's hitting less ground balls, he is 2% better in turning infield ground balls into hits.

This really is a strange statistical phenomenon with him...based on BB and K rates alone, you would think he would at least maintain the average from last year...what could it be that is driving it down?

[Gregg]

Hamilton does not make very much hard contact, puts the ball into the air too much, and is generally just a shitty hitter. Not all ground balls are the same, nor are all fly balls. It seems that Hamilton makes such weak contact so often that he ends up making outs at a higher rate than the average hitter.
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That seems like it is the answer to the lower ba. Hard to argue with 51 sbs (and more to come). for 15 bucks. I just need to make sure I draft a very high BA lead off hitter to counter balance him.

[james33]

Interesting...he is walking the same, striking out less...one would have to assume it means he's been unlucky this year with BABIP, and he is 40 points below his 2014 BABIP But if you look at his advanced stats, there are no clear outliers as to why his BA is so much lower. His ground ball rate is ~1.5% lower and his fly ball rate is about 1.5% higher which essentially is a 3% change from ground ball to fly ball...that could account for it since he has essentially no power, so his fly balls are likely going to be caught. But then you look at his infield hit % and it's gone up 2%. So, even though he's hitting less ground balls, he is 2% better in turning infield ground balls into hits.

This really is a strange statistical phenomenon with him...based on BB and K rates alone, you would think he would at least maintain the average from last year...what could it be that is driving it down?

No idea - Baseball Reference says lower IF/FB than last year too...and higher LD rate.

Hamilton BABIP: .260
Dee Gordon BABIP: .388

[revo]

For as shitty a hitter as he is, he has a 17 SB lead over the next best base-stealer and almost 3x as many as the 10th place guy. So in a 14-16 team league, that difference between just #1 and #2 in SBs could mean as many as 7-to-10 roto points.

For his owners, you just have to hold your nose and hope for a game where he gets on-base a few times and steals 2-to-3 bases.

[Judge Jude]

He's also using up a precious OF slot and dragging down your AVG. an odd duck

[Lucky]

That seems like it is the answer to the lower ba. Hard to argue with 51 sbs (and more to come). for 15 bucks. I just need to make sure I draft a very high BA lead off hitter to counter balance him.

Better get Nap Lajoie.