2k11: Pedro Alvarez

[joncarlos]

Oooooh, the hype machine is starting to shift into overdrive for this one. I thought he'd be a nice sleeper that I could snag a round or two ahead of where he was expected to go. But now I'm not so sure.

2010 stats: 347 AB, .256-16-64-42r-0sb, 9.6% walk rate, 34.3% K rate, .341 BABIP, 1.15 G/F, 14.8% LD rate.

The good news:

Projected out to 600 ABs, that line looks like .256-27-110-72r. He wasn't overwhelmed as a rookie and he'll "only" be 24 this season (remember, he's a college player, not as young as you might think, but still young enough to improve).

He hit .306-6-17 in September/October after hitting just .152 (with 22 Ks in 46 ABs) in June when he was first called up. His K rate for Sept/Oct was "just" 25% which is perfectly reasonable.

Clint Hurdle may not be the manager to lead the Pirates to 100 wins, but he's a very good hitting coach. Think about what Cito Gaston did for Jose Bautista.

I like the walk rate - almost 10% as a rookie means he isn't hopeless up there.

The bad news:

You have to parse an already small sample size even smaller to see good things like his September K rate. Yes, it's there, but we're talking about 120 PAs. Looking at the whole season, a 34% K rate is in Mark Reynolds territory.

His LD% and K rates don't really portend great things for his AVG, no matter what he did in September. He also hit a ton of infield pop-ups which means that even though his FB% looks better than his G/F due to the lack of line drives, there's no good way to slice his power that looks like a 40+ HR guy this year. That 17.6% HR rate looks pretty high, even in a park that suits him well.

Plus, the Pirates are looking better offensively with Walker, Tabata and McCutchen, but they're still not going to be mistaken for the '27 Yankees any time soon.

Projection:

Bill James has a conservative estimate, very similar to the 600-AB numbers I posted above (537 AB, .277-27-103-78r-4sb).

I think he'll hit for a lower average for that but otherwise the numbers are close. If he stays healthy he could crack 30 HR but I think he slides just under. I'd go with something like .255-29-97-72r-2sb.

Ranking:

I was pretty shocked by how early Alvarez went in Mock 1 (Pick numbers listed):

Longoria #9
Wright #16
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A-Rod #27
Zim #30
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Alvarez #48
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Beltre #69
M Young #77
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Aramis #100
Sandoval #104
Reynolds #115
McGeehee #116

[DJBeasties]

good analysis, jc.

[DJBeasties]

from rotoworld:

Pirates GM Neal Huntington has confirmed reports that Pedro Alvarez is currently overweight.
A report earlier Friday indicated that Alvarez had gained at least 15 pounds and was now up to over 240.

Huntington says the third baseman is not that far from his target weight. He shouldn't have a problem getting back to playing shape, but it speaks to Alvarez's lack of dedication more than anything else. Alvarez has massive potential if he doesn't eat his way into Kung-Fu Panda territory.

Source: Rob Biertempfel on Twitter

[Sour Masher]

I think a little too much weight is given to weight. We seem to only be concerned about it when a player is underperforming, like Sandoval did last year. We don't seem to mind that Prince Fielder outweighs Sandoval by 20 or so pounds at the same height. No one mentions Billy Butler, who is shorter than Alvarez, tipping the scales at 240.

[cavebird]

I think a little too much weight is given to weight. We seem to only be concerned about it when a player is underperforming, like Sandoval did last year. We don't seem to mind that Prince Fielder outweighs Sandoval by 20 or so pounds at the same height. No one mentions Billy Butler, who is shorter than Alvarez, tipping the scales at 240.

And then there is Miguel Cabrera who never slowed down despite ending up with my body type. (Why can't I hit? I was born on the same day (different year) as Musial and Griffey, Jr., and am left-handed, but nope, nada, nothing.)

[joncarlos]

And then there is Miguel Cabrera who never slowed down despite ending up with my body type. (Why can't I hit? I was born on the same day (different year) as Musial and Griffey, Jr., and am left-handed, but nope, nada, nothing.)

But were you born in Donora, PA?

[MagSeven]

But were you born in Donora, PA?

I was but not on the same day as either of them. And I can't hit worth a darn.

[DJBeasties]

MagSeven = cavebird?

[DMT]

Thus far, he's been miserable and not much evidence for optimism moving forward. Are people targeting this guy as a buy-low candidate?

[joncarlos]

Thus far, he's been miserable and not much evidence for optimism moving forward. Are people targeting this guy as a buy-low candidate?

Where's the power? 7% walk rate and 33% K rate aren't too different from what we expected. But he has 1 HR and 4 doubles. And his G/F went from 1.1 to 1.7. His LD% is a ridiculous 11%. Amazingly his BABIP isn't that bad at .294 but he isn't putting the ball in play enough or hitting enough HRs.

I do think he'll bounce back but I think it's more than luck, he needs to fix his mechanics. So there might be another month of pain before the bounceback

[Hammer]

I think he might be ticketed for AAA shortly to refine his mechanics and to get some confidence back.

[Sour Masher]

Thus far, he's been miserable and not much evidence for optimism moving forward. Are people targeting this guy as a buy-low candidate?

It depends on how low you can buy him. I've coveted Alvarez for awhile, and I've bugged the owner who has him about a trade for a long time. I even offered a fairly cheap Beltre for him in the preseason. I'm obviously glad the guy said no. At this point, I don't want him anymore as he needs to be extended next year and while I still think he will probably develop into a solid power hitter who should have good value for as long as he stays at 3b, I don't think he'll end up showing enough for long enough this year to let me know how long he should be extended. I could see him having a solid second half, but at this point he's just too much of an X-factor to bet heavily on. I'd still take him though, as a speculative play, if the owner in my league was selling low enough, but he is still pretty high on him despite his struggles.

[DMT]

It depends on how low you can buy him. I've coveted Alvarez for awhile, and I've bugged the owner who has him about a trade for a long time. I even offered a fairly cheap Beltre for him in the preseason. I'm obviously glad the guy said no. At this point, I don't want him anymore as he needs to be extended next year and while I still think he will probably develop into a solid power hitter who should have good value for as long as he stays at 3b, I don't think he'll end up showing enough for long enough this year to let me know how long he should be extended. I could see him having a solid second half, but at this point he's just too much of an X-factor to bet heavily on. I'd still take him though, as a speculative play, if the owner in my league was selling low enough, but he is still pretty high on him despite his struggles.

He was actually dropped in my non-RJ league (12 team mixed). I have Gordon at 3B and not sure how long he'll hold up. I too tried to trade for him prior to this season but his former owner is a tweaker (e.g., his 'best keeper' now a FA).