Cuban hitters - the last 20 years

Have any Cuban hitters become bonafide studs within the last 20 years?

Many start off very well, but seem to slow down and not really reach that "stud" type of hitter. They become productive, but not superstars. Cespedes comes to mind.

Maybe Abreu will be one.

[chancellor]

Too early to tell on Puig and Abreu. But I think Abreu will be - he has pretty good plate discipline to go with his power.

[revo]

Jose Canseco?

[joncarlos]

Jose Canseco?

That was my answer too. I mean, before Cespedes, how many of them were there in the last 20 years? Cespedes has a career 116 OPS+ and cost 36mil. That's pretty damn good - probably in line or better with expectations.

I'm not sure Yuni Betancourt or Yunel Escobar were ever expected to be superstars.

[chancellor]

Jose Canseco?

Good point, I figured he meant the players that previously played in Cuba.

[heyelander]

Why would what Cubans have done in the past have any bearing on what different ones will do in the future? That's like hedging your bets about what a player from Arkansas will do based on past successes of those from Arkansas.

they do that though, don't they? Whenever you read about a HS draft prospect from Washington it questions his experience vs kids from CA or FL who are able to play year round. Or whatever freaky state doesn't have HS baseball? Individuals are individuals true enough, but training, level of competition, coaching, style of play, skills emphasis, etc could all be local issues.

[heyelander]

I just chalk that up to lazy scouting / journalism. I suppose there's something to be said for analyzing training, level of competition, coaching, style of play, skills emphasis, etc. but unless something bears itself out statistically, it's just noise. Being from Cuba doesn't make a pitcher more like Luis Tiant or less like Danys Baez or a hitter more like Kendrys Morales or less like Alex Sanchez. It's like when Japanese players are rumored to be coming to the US --- inevitably lazy journalists just compare them to Dice-K or Ichiro or whatever.

Whether Yasiel Puig is a good player or not has little to do with whether, for example, Yoan Moncada will also be good.

Isn't a lot our knowledge of these guys based on a ton of this noise and laziness though too? They don't have a ton of statistics to go off of, and scouting up to this point has been sketchy, no?

I don't think I would use past experience with other players as a starting point in evaluating new signees, but I think I would want to analyses where scouting of past guys broke down and make sure I wasn't expecting different things based on the same processes.

[joncarlos]

Why would what Cubans have done in the past have any bearing on what different ones will do in the future? That's like hedging your bets about what a player from Arkansas will do based on past successes of those from Arkansas.

Comps have value. You want to know the future by comparing Puig or Cespedes to a guy who has had similar development time, played a similar amount of games, faced similar competition, been exposed to a similar coaching environment, etc. Most of those guys are going to be Cuban. Sure, maybe there's a guy who had a similar experience in Venezuela, or Curacao, or Montana. Who knows?

[madducks]

LOL - is Hobbesmonkey a nom de plume for our very own Mithrandir? Welcome back, Mith!

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=521523

Mith outed by the Cubans?

[nullnor]

what's the PED situation in Cuba? do they test the players?

[revo]

Mith outed by the Cubans?

The Cubans are at it again - first JFK, now Mith!

And again, ElD nails someone on another message board!

[Pogues]

Good point, I figured he meant the players that previously played in Cuba.

Not to mention, Canseco is a bit outside of the 20 year thing. He came up in 1988, I believe?

[revo]

Not to mention, Canseco is a bit outside of the 20 year thing. He came up in 1988, I believe?

1985. But he was playing as late as 2001.

[DMT]

LOL - is Hobbesmonkey a nom de plume for our very own Mithrandir? Welcome back, Mith!

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=521523

Hahaha...someone should post that Rush sucks in the thread as a litmus test.

[The Dane]

Comps have value. You want to know the future by comparing Puig or Cespedes to a guy who has had similar development time, played a similar amount of games, faced similar competition, been exposed to a similar coaching environment, etc. Most of those guys are going to be Cuban. Sure, maybe there's a guy who had a similar experience in Venezuela, or Curacao, or Montana. Who knows?

Yes. We need context to understand the true value of a player's surface stats. I do believe that maybe we tend to overstate its value, but understanding the environment in which a player generates his stats greatly helps us know how those stats MAY translate in the majors. Knowing that the Japanese teams are roughly like good AAA teams, with less reliance on power, really helps us.