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4th/5th outfielder skills and replacement levels

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  • 4th/5th outfielder skills and replacement levels

    This is something I've noticed has changed a bit this year and I wanted to make mention of it and see if anyone else had seen the same thing.

    A few years ago, the typical FA/WW replacement players that I could find for my leagues (deeper leagues - 12 team NL, 18-team mixed, etc) were all empty AVG guys. Call it the Orlando Palmeiro/Mark Sweeney era. When your starting OF got hurt, the guy you'd be getting as a replacement would most likely be an empty .280 hitter.

    After that, we moved into the Joey Gathright era, where the most common thing you'd find was a guy who would steal a couple of bases in a week but wouldn't give you anything else.

    Now, it seems like we're moving into the Andruw Jones/Marcus Thames era, where the guys sitting on the WW are the guys who only play once or twice a week but have power as their most prominent skill.

    Back when the replacements were Orlando Palmiero types, I used to worry a little bit less about AVG, figuring that I'd get a slight boost if I played some FAs. I'm starting to wonder if the trend isn't shifting a bit, where you should focus on speed and AVG and assume you're most likely to get power from your fill-in players.

    This obviously doesn't apply to shallow leagues, where you could probably pick up a speed OR a power OR an empty AVG guy to replace whatever you need.

    And even in deeper leagues, you have to take the most productive fill-in, regardless of categories. But if you can plan a little bit for what you might get, there might be an opportunity to hedge a bit in the other directions when building your team.

  • #2
    As I have continued to play, my leagues are all of the deep variety (16-18 team mixed or 10-12 team NL) and I took a look to see whats out there.


    NL
    Dobbs
    Renteria
    Denorfia
    Miles

    Mixed
    rowand
    Hanahan
    Harris
    Nix
    Langerhans

    All non-descript garbage. I am stashing 2 futures per roster because things are so bad.
    After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

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    • #3
      This make me wonder if fantasy league BA averages have dropped because of how we roster power.

      I am not sure I can go back more than a year or two to check that.

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      • #4
        My experience in deeper leagues is that everyone, unless a team is loaded with cheap keepers, it is going to start the season with some less than fulltime players. And sure, getting a few HR or SB or a slight BA bump from them is nice, but what they contribute now pales in comparison to what you need to get from their replacements, because if you are going to remain competitive, you are going to have to gradually replace most of them with free agents who play more, and you have all year to balance out the early season stats.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Weapon1 View Post
          My experience in deeper leagues is that everyone, unless a team is loaded with cheap keepers, it is going to start the season with some less than fulltime players.
          In deep leagues, coming out of the gate with a team of full-time players is the single biggest factor in building a competitive offense. I've run the numbers for the past 10 years in our league, and in almost every single case, the top 3-4 finishers in total offense correlate *directly* with the total number of team ABs. The top 3-4 teams often have 1,000 or more total ABs than the next tier over the course of a season. And it is usually the same group of 3-4 owners who have figured this out and routinely draft 500 cheap ABs from guys like Johnny Damon and pass on prospects, unproven sophomores, or anybody not projected for a full year of ABs. (That's what the RSRV draft is for, geez!) The especially savvy owners also focus on FT players during the first 1-3 rounds of the RSRV draft at the expense of getting prospects. Personally, if I don't come out of the draft with a complete roster of full-time players, I trade and spend FAAB money early and often on absolutely ANYBODY who looks like they may land a FT gig and don't stop until I'm getting FT at bats from every position.

          Which brings me back to the original topic. As with Hammer the week-to-week options in our league are simply terrible, power vs. speed be damned:

          Patterson, Corey CF TOR
          Lillibridge, Brent 2B CHW
          McCoy, Mike LF TOR
          Wells, Casper RF DET
          McDonald, Darnell RF BOS
          Milledge, Lastings LF CHW

          The only hope in our league is to monitor depth charts and AAA news in hopes of finding and nabbing the next FT player one step ahead of your opponents. Or more typically, a player emerges with a new FT job mid-week, in which case many owners are going to place bids. In that case I'll stop at nothing to acquire said player especially early in the year and even if I don't have a specific positional or category need. A full-time job is worth its weight in gold.

          (Of course there are obvious cases where a FT job is not good enough or even harmful, e.g. a middle infielder hitting an empty .218 over 500 ABs. I'm talking about anybody who is within at least spitting distance of being "average" for his position.)

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          • #6
            You hit it right on the head Senor. Its all about he at-bats in an only or deep mixed league.
            After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

            Comment

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