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When I started doing this exercise more than a decade ago, we tended to have our auction early in the cycle and there were a lot more relative newcomers to the game - so it was intended to help explain how I approach this process since I began in 1984.
This is a late auction, and the site is filled with veterans who don't need any help from me. But I do tend to be willing to "paint outside the lines" - sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't. And this was no walk in the park today.
32nd-year league, last new owners arrived in 2002. half the owners go back to the 1980s and two of us to the beginning. owner ages range from about 47 to 73, median close to 60. for many, this is the only fantasy league they play in. No owner had missed this in-person auction in more than a decade, but the Easter delay caused havoc - so we had three substitutes. That created unique challenges as we didn't know their rhythms at all.
I walked in with these keepers:
10 for 106
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Mike Leake 1-O
RP K-Rod 2-S1
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1
C Yadier Molina 20-S1
302 Josh Harrison 10-S1
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1
Goals: get another solid SP for around 20-25. consider Addison Reed if price is right. focus on power, as AVG and SB already set.
how did it go? Well, I didn't buy a single pitcher in the first three HOURS. My system of player values is such that I try not to really, really reach more than once an auction. I'll take what the auction gives me, and be willing to deal later. In this case, I'll have no choice.
NEED 13 PLAYERS FOR 154 UNITS
OF ANDREW MCCUTCHEN 37 - My system has me willing to go to 42 (or maybe a smidge more), so this was a pleasant 1st-round surprise to kick off the auction. Was told later about his knee "issues" that scared owners, but he homered with 4 RBI today. love this pick for this year and beyond; I don't need him to run at all (my keepers alone swiped 124 sacks last year). NEED 12 for 117
SS TROY TULOWITZKI 33 - 2nd-rounder is the second player to go for under my target price (of 35). He can miss a couple of weeks and I'll still make a profit. Risky, sure, but Howie Kendrick went for 32 in this auction and Votto went for 35. I'm content, and I know I'll leave the auction with lots of star hitters. NEED 11 for 84
OF JAY BRUCE 24 - Remember I mentioned one "reach"? Had him at 20, but a buzzer-beater 21 bid left me going up the ladder. A couple of rounds had gone by, and power was going at a higher premium than speed - odd, because another owner and I have cornered the market at steals almost, so I figured the remaining speed would go for a fortune. Bruce slots well with what by now is a crazy-high AVG team. NEED 10 for 60
OF/UT CURTIS GRANDERSON 17 - This is where it gets very messy. Somehow Grandyman is not even on my availables list, and the bidding is sluggish. I'm convinced he'd list around 20, and feel like I have to buy at this price. Turns out he's too pricey here by my own reckoning, AND he's my 6th OF - so OF AND UT is off the board, only an hour into the auction. Not a good place to be. Still, at a glance he looks like a slugger whose AVG I can handle with my high AVG squad overall. And several owners still have more than 100 units, and I know the game is soon going to get very bloody. NEED 9 for 43.
C JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA 7 - Sat out for a while, and got back in with a boring but sensible pick - a C with a bit of pop. NEED 8 for 36.
2B JEDD GYORKO 12 - There are absolutely zero reasonable SP prices - examples around this stage include Cashner 16, McCarthy 14, Lackey 12, Fiers 12, Garza 10, Gee 9, DeSclafani 7 - so I zag while others zig and keep taking palatable hitters. A healthy Gyorko could be very solid, so yes please. BUT now I'm also boxed in at middle INF as well at C and OF. More than an hour to go, and for my two last hitting slots I have to get a 1B and a 1B/3B. Quite confining. And oh, yes, I haven't bought a single pitcher yet (at this point it helped that I decided to simply not worry about it, and trade later. That helped me avoid a silly, massive overpay for an SP. or did it?). NEED 7 for 24.
SP AJ BURNETT 6 - At this point the hitting well is as dry as the pitching, and I still only own 2 SPs. I have tended to overcorrect in recent years to never taking a gamble on any SP, leaving me with good ERA/Ratio but tending to lag in W and K. This year, I'll gamble a bit on the back end even as I try to overload offense to produce tradeable excess. Weary at this point, and not bragging on this buy. NEED 6 for 18.
SP HYUN-JIN RYU 10-DL/VANCE WORLEY - Even the abbreviated season of Ryu at this point is miles ahead of any other SP out there, and I can see that I can't really buy much with my remaining dough anywhere. One rival suggested I may "Ryu" the day I made this pick. I said I already "Ryu" the price. But best available athlete here. Worley a crap-shoot replacement, but again I am willing to try to get lucky. Greinke and Ziegler offer a nice head start in ERA/Ratio. NEED 5 for 8.
SP/RP RAFAEL MONTERO 2 - I still had three pitching slots open, his name came up and - I dunno. Nice prospect but seems blocked. League filled with Mets lovers and - whatever. NEED 4 for 6.
1B TYLER MOORE 3 - Brutal. Every single 1B qualifier with a pulse went into the stratosphere. The worst "starting" 1B I have ever had. Limited ways to replace active players, but we told Tyler to rent, not buy. Coup de grace was some chucklehead bidding 2. NEED 3 for 3.
RP JONATHAN BROXTON 1 - Ok, that's better. K-Rod + Broxton for 3 units. If K-Rod rocks again, can dump Broxton down the road. NEED 2 for 2.
1B/3B KRIS NEGRON 1 - Kill me now. I always have 14 hitters better than this. NEED 1 for 1.
SP RUBBY DE LA ROSA 1 - Could be radioactive in ARI, but I couldn't get my setup man RP targets and went all-in on "risky starter" play. DONE
THE SQUAD
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Hyun-Jin Ryu 10-S2-DL/Vance Worley
SP AJ Burnett 6-S2
SP Mike Leake 1-O
SP Rubby de la Rosa 1-S2
RP K-Rod 2-S1
RP Jonathan Broxton 1-S2
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1
RP/SP Rafael Montero 2-S2
C Yadier Molina 20-S1
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 7-S2
1B Tyler Moore 3-S2
3B Josh Harrison 10-S1
13 Kris Negron 1-S2
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2
SS Troy Tulowitzki 33-S2
2S Jedd Gyorko 12-S12
OF Andrew McCutchen 37-S2
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2
OF Jay Bruce 24-S2
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1
UT Curtis Granderson 17-S2
Have at it, fellas!
This is a late auction, and the site is filled with veterans who don't need any help from me. But I do tend to be willing to "paint outside the lines" - sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn't. And this was no walk in the park today.
32nd-year league, last new owners arrived in 2002. half the owners go back to the 1980s and two of us to the beginning. owner ages range from about 47 to 73, median close to 60. for many, this is the only fantasy league they play in. No owner had missed this in-person auction in more than a decade, but the Easter delay caused havoc - so we had three substitutes. That created unique challenges as we didn't know their rhythms at all.
I walked in with these keepers:
10 for 106
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Mike Leake 1-O
RP K-Rod 2-S1
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1
C Yadier Molina 20-S1
302 Josh Harrison 10-S1
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1
Goals: get another solid SP for around 20-25. consider Addison Reed if price is right. focus on power, as AVG and SB already set.
how did it go? Well, I didn't buy a single pitcher in the first three HOURS. My system of player values is such that I try not to really, really reach more than once an auction. I'll take what the auction gives me, and be willing to deal later. In this case, I'll have no choice.
NEED 13 PLAYERS FOR 154 UNITS
OF ANDREW MCCUTCHEN 37 - My system has me willing to go to 42 (or maybe a smidge more), so this was a pleasant 1st-round surprise to kick off the auction. Was told later about his knee "issues" that scared owners, but he homered with 4 RBI today. love this pick for this year and beyond; I don't need him to run at all (my keepers alone swiped 124 sacks last year). NEED 12 for 117
SS TROY TULOWITZKI 33 - 2nd-rounder is the second player to go for under my target price (of 35). He can miss a couple of weeks and I'll still make a profit. Risky, sure, but Howie Kendrick went for 32 in this auction and Votto went for 35. I'm content, and I know I'll leave the auction with lots of star hitters. NEED 11 for 84
OF JAY BRUCE 24 - Remember I mentioned one "reach"? Had him at 20, but a buzzer-beater 21 bid left me going up the ladder. A couple of rounds had gone by, and power was going at a higher premium than speed - odd, because another owner and I have cornered the market at steals almost, so I figured the remaining speed would go for a fortune. Bruce slots well with what by now is a crazy-high AVG team. NEED 10 for 60
OF/UT CURTIS GRANDERSON 17 - This is where it gets very messy. Somehow Grandyman is not even on my availables list, and the bidding is sluggish. I'm convinced he'd list around 20, and feel like I have to buy at this price. Turns out he's too pricey here by my own reckoning, AND he's my 6th OF - so OF AND UT is off the board, only an hour into the auction. Not a good place to be. Still, at a glance he looks like a slugger whose AVG I can handle with my high AVG squad overall. And several owners still have more than 100 units, and I know the game is soon going to get very bloody. NEED 9 for 43.
C JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA 7 - Sat out for a while, and got back in with a boring but sensible pick - a C with a bit of pop. NEED 8 for 36.
2B JEDD GYORKO 12 - There are absolutely zero reasonable SP prices - examples around this stage include Cashner 16, McCarthy 14, Lackey 12, Fiers 12, Garza 10, Gee 9, DeSclafani 7 - so I zag while others zig and keep taking palatable hitters. A healthy Gyorko could be very solid, so yes please. BUT now I'm also boxed in at middle INF as well at C and OF. More than an hour to go, and for my two last hitting slots I have to get a 1B and a 1B/3B. Quite confining. And oh, yes, I haven't bought a single pitcher yet (at this point it helped that I decided to simply not worry about it, and trade later. That helped me avoid a silly, massive overpay for an SP. or did it?). NEED 7 for 24.
SP AJ BURNETT 6 - At this point the hitting well is as dry as the pitching, and I still only own 2 SPs. I have tended to overcorrect in recent years to never taking a gamble on any SP, leaving me with good ERA/Ratio but tending to lag in W and K. This year, I'll gamble a bit on the back end even as I try to overload offense to produce tradeable excess. Weary at this point, and not bragging on this buy. NEED 6 for 18.
SP HYUN-JIN RYU 10-DL/VANCE WORLEY - Even the abbreviated season of Ryu at this point is miles ahead of any other SP out there, and I can see that I can't really buy much with my remaining dough anywhere. One rival suggested I may "Ryu" the day I made this pick. I said I already "Ryu" the price. But best available athlete here. Worley a crap-shoot replacement, but again I am willing to try to get lucky. Greinke and Ziegler offer a nice head start in ERA/Ratio. NEED 5 for 8.
SP/RP RAFAEL MONTERO 2 - I still had three pitching slots open, his name came up and - I dunno. Nice prospect but seems blocked. League filled with Mets lovers and - whatever. NEED 4 for 6.
1B TYLER MOORE 3 - Brutal. Every single 1B qualifier with a pulse went into the stratosphere. The worst "starting" 1B I have ever had. Limited ways to replace active players, but we told Tyler to rent, not buy. Coup de grace was some chucklehead bidding 2. NEED 3 for 3.
RP JONATHAN BROXTON 1 - Ok, that's better. K-Rod + Broxton for 3 units. If K-Rod rocks again, can dump Broxton down the road. NEED 2 for 2.
1B/3B KRIS NEGRON 1 - Kill me now. I always have 14 hitters better than this. NEED 1 for 1.
SP RUBBY DE LA ROSA 1 - Could be radioactive in ARI, but I couldn't get my setup man RP targets and went all-in on "risky starter" play. DONE
THE SQUAD
SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Hyun-Jin Ryu 10-S2-DL/Vance Worley
SP AJ Burnett 6-S2
SP Mike Leake 1-O
SP Rubby de la Rosa 1-S2
RP K-Rod 2-S1
RP Jonathan Broxton 1-S2
RP Brad Ziegler 1-S1
RP/SP Rafael Montero 2-S2
C Yadier Molina 20-S1
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 7-S2
1B Tyler Moore 3-S2
3B Josh Harrison 10-S1
13 Kris Negron 1-S2
2B Dee Gordon 15-L2
SS Troy Tulowitzki 33-S2
2S Jedd Gyorko 12-S12
OF Andrew McCutchen 37-S2
OF Yasiel Puig 10-L2
OF Jay Bruce 24-S2
OF Gregory Polanco 5-S1
OF Angel Pagan 17-S1
UT Curtis Granderson 17-S2
Have at it, fellas!
- Wonderboy
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