my 32nd annual freeze list is due Monday morning - advice?

[Judge Jude]

Hey, guys,

Have been swamped at work for months and less confident than usual about having kept up re my freeze list options. candidates here with comments (can keep up to 11, NL-only 12-team 5x5 with above-average inflation because farmhands are 5-S2, not 10, and clock doesn't start until season after 131st MLB AB or 51st MLB IP):

SP Zack Greinke 25 - keep in this environment unless some arm woes
SP Mike Leake 1 - easy keep, but do I go 6-L2 with 2016 option for 11-L1 (no penalty if he's not kept in 2016)
SP Jon Gray 5 - farmhand, but if he makes team, I'd have to freeze. sorry, kid. would go cheaper at auction, right?

RP K-Rod 2 - yes please
RP Ziegler 1 - I think yes? Reed a bit shaky and Ziegler was very good last yr until he hurt arm at midseason
RP Giles 10 - apparently back is stiff and Papelbon still there, so no, I assume
RP Ottavino 10 - great peripherals and Hawkins had a pet dinosaur as a kid, but no, correct?
RP Quackenbush 10 - saw the Padres thread that he's not the No 2, even, so no way

C YMolina 20 - below projected inflated value last year, got hurt. got rest, got older, bad spring. toss?
C HSanchez 2 - made team but can't picture it even with Posey doing more 1B time
302 Harrison 10 - yes, even with possible regression
2B Gordon 10 - of course. but do I go 15-L2, with that 20-L1 option?
2B Panik 10 - even in this league, feels like a - yeah, panic move

OF Puig 5 - actually will be 10-L2. for that price, he can be a prima donna if he likes.
OF GPolanco 5 - nice price!
OF Pagan 17 - earned that last year even in 300 AB. I like if not in traction already, right?

toughest choice? ideas? talk me out of a blunder?

I rank 3rd or 4th in freeze list projections, good but not great - and that often matters, I realize.

[Hornsby]

Grey got sent down, so you won't have to worry about him.

I'd keep Giles and K-Rod...Papas will eventually go away, and Giles is good enough to help in the meantime.

Gordon, yes...extend 2 years. he's still cheap at 20 for 60 steals.

Pagan is a no-go for me...surgically repaired back now barking again? Cut bait...

[chancellor]

SP Zack Greinke 25 - Keep. Nice staff anchor at solid price
SP Mike Leake 1 - Keep, don't extend. I see him as about a $5-8 pitcher. Take the profit for this year.
SP Jon Gray 5 - I don't know if he'd go cheaper, but I couldn't keep a Rockies pitcher without some sort of a track record.
RP K-Rod 2 - Keep.
RP Ziegler 1 -Keep.
RP Giles 10 - 10 is steep, but I think he'll heal up fine and the Phils will find a way to dump Papelbon. Hardest choice here, IMO. I'd keep.
RP Ottavino 10 - Nope. Hawkins is a dinosaur. But if you like him, I think you can get him for less at auction anyway.
RP Quackenbush 10 - Nope. Given the Padre information - which I think will change quickly - he's a great potential cheap MR option.

C YMolina 20 - I'd keep - he's solid at this price, IMO.
C HSanchez 2 - Nope.
3B Harrison 10 - Keep
2B Gordon 10 - of course. Extend to 15 for sure.
2B Panik 10 - Nope
OF Puig 5 - Keep at 10 L2. Get commish drunk and find out way to extend for another year.
OF GPolanco 5 - Keep.
OF Pagan 17 - Meh. He'd be your 11th keeper. Had just under 400 ABs last year and earned 16 by my calcs. He's an OK keep. Not sure if I would, but if OFs and/or speed will be scarce, you probably should.

[Judge Jude]

wow, terrific analysis, Chancellor. I feel better already!

and surprised that more Chance/Horns sentiment to keep Giles than Pagan. interesting.
can't go any longer with Puig, alas.....

[The Dane]

Ah, I love this format. The simple elegance of a 12-team NL only. Here's my take...

These are my definites:
SP Zack Greinke 25 - You'll need more than just him at the top, but this is a good price.
SP Mike Leake 1 - I'm not high on Leake, but you can't get better for $1.
RP K-Rod 2 - Easy
RP Giles 10 - For these two it's all about skills-not-roles. They WILL get saves, and even if it's not enough for you to win the category...
RP Ottavino 10 - ...they'll keep you in the hunt while supplying 150 innings of golden peripherals. With the saves upside, easily worth $22 total for relievers.
302 Harrison 10 - Easy
2B Gordon 10 - I rarely extend, so I'd say only go to 15, at the highest.
OF Puig 5 - Stud for $10
OF GPolanco 5 - Easy

That leave two of this bunch:
C YMolina 20 - I'm down on Molina this year, but this isn't a bad price
C HSanchez 2 - decent $2 catcher, I suppose, but no great shakes.
2B Panik 10 - No. Toss him back and get him for that, or less. In some SF-based leagues, he goes for $25+! Madness. Get him cheap or give him to someone else.
OF Pagan 17 - Even as a Giants fan, the injuries are too much for more than a token bid imo. Let someone else gamble.
RP Ziegler 1 - No, you can get similar arms with fewer questions for that same buck

So, if I had to decide now, I'd go with the two catchers and that's 11.

[Judge Jude]

WOW

love the wisdom offered and will digest!

I feel like the Jimmy Stewart character near the end of "It's a Wonderful Life" when friends bail his ass out

#eeaw

[revo]

For those scoring at home, here is JJ's 1st fantasy team lineup:

The JJ Starbucks, '83
C - Alan Ashby
1B - Chris Chambliss
2B - Doug Flynn
SS - Hubie Brooks
3B - Phil Garner
MI - Glenn Hubbard
CI - Bob Horner
OF - Paul Householder
OF - Ruppert Jones
OF - Ken Landreaux
OF - Lee Mazzilli
DH - Biff Pocaroba

P - John Montefusco
P - Dick Ruthven
P - Craig Swan
P - Rick Rhoden
P - Atlee Hammaker
P - Cecilo Guante
P - Sid Monge
RP - Gary Lavelle
RP - Kent Tekulve

[Judge Jude]

not quite, but my 1984 debut and pennant-winning squad did feature 3B Graig Nettles, who debuted before the Pilots/Brewers, Expos/Nationals, Padres, or Royals ever existed.

and Tekulve did earn a ring with my team.

[Sharky]

Revo, that was pretty funny. hubie brooks and Atlee Hammaker. Wow, blasts from the past.

JJ, good options overall. Would suggest you follow the general consensus but will offer a few specific suggestions:
I wouldn't extend Leake. Bank the profit.
I would drop all three closers in waiting (Giles, Ottavino and Quackenbush). No brainer for me. Get them back at auction for 10 or less if you like. Let them go otherwise. It's not a 4x4 league.
I paid more for Molina in our league but have some buyer's remorse. Toss.
If you don't extend Gordon is it final year? If so I would absolutely extend him. There is some downside risk but also upside (he could even end up playing SS, and could certainly be a difference maker SB). I think he will surprise.

[The Dane]

Revo, that was pretty funny. hubie brooks and Atlee Hammaker. Wow, blasts from the past.
I would drop all three closers in waiting (Giles, Ottavino and Quackenbush). No brainer for me. Get them back at auction for 10 or less if you like. Let them go otherwise. It's not a 4x4 league.

In the two 12-team NL-only auctions I've been in so far, Giles went for $14 and $11, and Ottavino went for $12 and $1 (a keeper). I do NOT think you get Giles or Ottavino for less than $10 in your format. The Papelbon and Hawkins owners will likely be in for at least that. Giles strikes out a ton and Ottavino is behind Hawkins, who was resilient as all hell last year, even with lousy peripherals, but has been terrible this spring. One or two blown saves and Ottavino is the Man. Giles has a tougher hurdle to overcome, because barring Papelbon injury or trade, he isn't sniffing the 9th, but they are actively shopping Papelbon and you gotta think he gets moved, but even if he isn't, Giles could earn $10 from the 8th inning all year.

I like Quackenbush, but I take him out because his path to saves is more circuitous, and that pen has a lot of options, so they won't need to depend on him for every pressure (read: vulture) situation.

I don't think tossing them back is a terrible bet either, but those two are probably the two closers-in-waiting that are worth the most. They're a nice pair, and maybe, just maybe, you could get them back for less. I'm just not so sure about that. I'd rather have them than Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, John Axford, Jonathan Broxton, Jim Johnson, Brad Zeigler, Jason Motte, Sam LeCure, AJ Ramos, or Jordan Walden. The only closers-in waiting I would put anywhere near their level are Sergio Romo, Casey Janssen and Tony Watson. Romo has to wait for a Casilla collapse that may never happen; Janssen is behind Storen who is pretty good until the postseason, which is a ways away; and Watson (who is awesome) is behind Melancon (who is more awesome). Honestly, if I were to pick two NL middle relievers with saves upside and good ratios, they'd be Giles and Ottavino, regardless of price.

Keep in mind, I rarely pay for saves. I'd rather have Giles for $10 than Papelbon for $22. But maybe that's not you.

[Gregg]

Yikes. I seem to have a different take on this all together. For what its worth I filter this trough a deep NL only 5x5 12 team with 15 keepers and a deep reserve/prospect roster.

SP Zack Greinke 25 - Yes great price.
SP Mike Leake 1 - Yes.
SP Jon Gray 5 - No Colorado pitcher that is not on the big club. Playing for this year use the $5 elsewhere.

RP K-Rod 2 -yes
RP Ziegler 1 - No had micro surgery to repair knee. 35 years old. I can find something better in the end game.
RP Giles 10 - -No cutting along with Ottavino and Quackenbush. Would rather have the 30 bucks back in auction. I would rebid Giles with new contract up to $10.
RP Ottavino 10 - No I want the extra money. As a Hawkins owner I got Ottavino for 7 in our auction and that was because someone realized I had Hawkins and bid me up a couple of bucks. I like him but you can get him back cheaper.
RP Quackenbush 10 - saw the Padres thread that he's not the No 2, even, so no way- Agreed put him back.

C YMolina 20 - I am keeping Molina at $20. He came back 15lbs lighter and worked out hard in the off season. 32 is not exactly old for a Molina. The hrs are nice, but I like the BA he brings to the catcher spot. 3 straight years of over .300 before injury last year. Even if he can't get back to that he will contirbute in 4 categories.
C HSanchez 2 - Nope. I can find somebody better for this spot, or someone about the same for a buck in the end game.
302 Harrison 10 -Yes
2B Gordon 10 - of course. but do I go 15-L2, with that 20-L1 option? -I would probably go just one year, but wouldn't fault you for going two.
2B Panik 10-No with Gordon you don't need Panik at 10. He probably goes for a few bucks less. He can be a fall back if you can't get a better one at auction.

OF Puig 5 - actually will be 10-L2. for that price, he can be a prima donna if he likes. Yes.
OF GPolanco 5 - nice price!-Yes
OF Pagan 17 - He hurt his back sleeping on a mattress that was too soft. His back went into spasms. He hurt his back SLEEPING!! I do not want to pay $17 for that.

Take the money saved and go get some solid players at auction. You have a nice base of cheap players that affords you to get some cream of the crop as well as some lower tier players that will help you more than some of these gambles.

Good luck!

[Hornsby]

Just a thought on the Giles/Paps issue...I would be shocked if Giles isn't the closer by the All-Star break, no matter if Papelbon is dealt or not. Paps has the following clause in his deal :

2016 option guaranteed with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 games finished in 2014-15 .

I don't think that there's any way that the Phils take a chance that the option vests...the easy out is to say that they're looking toward the future and slide Giles in as closer. It can be contested by the MLBPA, but I'd say it's certainly worth the chance.

[Judge Jude]

this could be the "no thanks to closers-in-waiting" version


8 for 88

SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Mike Leake 1-O

RP K-Rod 2-S1

C YMolina 20-S1
302 Harrison 10-S1
2B Gordon 15-L2

OF Puig 10-L2
OF GPolanco 5-S1

[Gregg]

this could be the "no thanks to closers-in-waiting" version


8 for 88

SP Zack Greinke 25-S1
SP Mike Leake 1-O

RP K-Rod 2-S1

C YMolina 20-S1
302 Harrison 10-S1
2B Gordon 15-L2

OF Puig 10-L2
OF GPolanco 5-S1

I might be a bit biased, but I like this and the extra $54 dollars better than the original posted roster.

[chancellor]

I have no heartburn about tossing Giles and Pagan back in, but I'd keep Ziegler at 1. He'll only miss a couple of weeks, and there's nothing wrong with his arm and he's had no issues with the knee rehab. Addison Reed is hardly a lock to keep the job.