NL-Only 12team 4x4 Keeper League (Roark $1 or Marco Gonzales $1?)

[YourPalChrisMal]

NL-Only 12team 4x4 Keeper League (about 25% inflation)...

I have 1 keeper slot left that I could fill. It appears Tanner Roark and Marco Gonzales are both probably the #6 starters waiting for someone to get hurt... However, Gonzales has pitched very well this Spring (small sample size, but 3 games, 10IP only 1 ER), and has seemingly outpitched Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez. At the same time...yes, spring stats don't matter, but Roark has pitched poorly in all 3 games this Spring.

I have them both for $1. Which is more likely to return value this year? Roark or Gonzales?

[joncarlos]

Have to roll with "spring stats don't matter" even though I worry the demotion is in Roark's head.

[chancellor]

More likely...Roark. No matter what, the Nats will keep him up in a swingman/long relief role. If Marco loses out, StL may demote him to make sure he gets work and is ready immediately in case Waino's arm blows up or Carlos Martinez simply blows up. I think it's fait accompli that Jaime Garcia will get hurt.

But, dang, for a buck...I'd sure be really tempted to bet on Marco's upside.

[YourPalChrisMal]

If you go to Google and type in "Marco Gonzales", and select "News" you can see a number of articles within the last 48 hours gushing about his performance, and changes in his mechanics that really made him that much more effective with his pitches in the early going. John Lackey has seemingly taken him under his wing. I've got to stop reading.

Really torn on this huge life-altering decision that I need to make by Friday at 5:30pm... My head is telling me Roark, but my gut is saying Gonzales.

[Gregg]

If you go to Google and type in "Marco Gonzales", and select "News" you can see a number of articles within the last 48 hours gushing about his performance, and changes in his mechanics that really made him that much more effective with his pitches in the early going. John Lackey has seemingly taken him under his wing. I've got to stop reading.

Really torn on this huge life-altering decision that I need to make by Friday at 5:30pm... My head is telling me Roark, but my gut is saying Gonzales.

You really can't pick wrong. You are talking about a $1 pitcher.

Gonzales is the easy pick for me. I'd gamble a bit as St. Louis seems to know a bit about baseball. I would rather gamble on the starter or potential starter than the MR who are always available in the end game. Roark is not starting, Gonzales probably. Easy choice.