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For the last couple of weeks, I have been operating under the assumption that there would be a lot of upper/mid-tier SP talent in this year's auction for my 16 team mixed points league. However, our league keepers are due in a few days, and a series of recent trades and keeper announcements have surprised me with the reality that many of the arms I thought would be tossed back in the auction are being kept.
These are all pitchers acquired in last year's auction at a reasonable cost, but not at real bargain prices. For years, this league, as a whole, has generally NOT kept SPs in this category. Most in this league instead chose to keep hitters in that value range, and roll the dice on really cheap SP keepers with upside and question marks rather than commit auction dollars to nearly at cost sort of pricey SPs. I have generally capitalized on this, and snagged reasonably priced mid-tier arms like Ian Kennedy, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, James Shields, etc. But it looks like that won't be an option for me this year. Maybe this is all in response to my success the last couple of years capitalizing on the value of slightly below value mid-tier pitching, or pricey but undervalued top tier pitching, IDK. Whatever caused this, the auction is going to be thinner on SPs than it has been in a long time.
So my question is, how should I respond to this market change? Should I spend even more than I planned to land the one true ace left--Scherzer? Should I change course on a strategy that has served me very well for many years in this league (two titles in the last 4 years)--spending more on high end SPs than the rest of the league, and go after the value that will now arise in the hitters in the auction? The problem with this strategy for me is that, anticipating that there would be a lot of SP talent in the auction, I've traded most of my SP keepers for hitter keepers. I've traded pricey but below value arms--Felix, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester--for hitters so that now, almost all of my starting hitter spots are filled (we keep 15 players). But maybe I should still try to land cheap hitters and then try to trade them to teams who overspent on pitching? What would you do in your league if everyone decided to zag when you thought they would zig, and you are left needing the one thing everyone has decided to keep?
These are all pitchers acquired in last year's auction at a reasonable cost, but not at real bargain prices. For years, this league, as a whole, has generally NOT kept SPs in this category. Most in this league instead chose to keep hitters in that value range, and roll the dice on really cheap SP keepers with upside and question marks rather than commit auction dollars to nearly at cost sort of pricey SPs. I have generally capitalized on this, and snagged reasonably priced mid-tier arms like Ian Kennedy, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, James Shields, etc. But it looks like that won't be an option for me this year. Maybe this is all in response to my success the last couple of years capitalizing on the value of slightly below value mid-tier pitching, or pricey but undervalued top tier pitching, IDK. Whatever caused this, the auction is going to be thinner on SPs than it has been in a long time.
So my question is, how should I respond to this market change? Should I spend even more than I planned to land the one true ace left--Scherzer? Should I change course on a strategy that has served me very well for many years in this league (two titles in the last 4 years)--spending more on high end SPs than the rest of the league, and go after the value that will now arise in the hitters in the auction? The problem with this strategy for me is that, anticipating that there would be a lot of SP talent in the auction, I've traded most of my SP keepers for hitter keepers. I've traded pricey but below value arms--Felix, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester--for hitters so that now, almost all of my starting hitter spots are filled (we keep 15 players). But maybe I should still try to land cheap hitters and then try to trade them to teams who overspent on pitching? What would you do in your league if everyone decided to zag when you thought they would zig, and you are left needing the one thing everyone has decided to keep?
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