elementary question

ok. for as long as i've been playing fantasy baseball (both h2h and roto) one would think that i have all of the basics down.

in a sense, perhaps i have been to embarrassed to ask this in a public setting, but i am refocusing this season and am curious.....

after using FanGraphs to chart my upcoming draft, how do i reconcile the negative draft values for players. i know it's not something as simple as adding a positive dollar value to all so that the worst players have a minimum $1 value because that would make some players astronomical in their perceived value.

i guess, in short, how do you all value negative dollar players? do you ever bid more than $1 for them and if so, how do you justify that from a strictly metrics perspective? i get that you assign a value to a player not only from a metrics perspective, but also from a team need/personal desire to have said player on your team. for instance, both Haren and Odorizzi have ~ a -$1 value associated with them (67% batting split with "standard" pitching categories of W, K, WHIP, ERA, S). is it simply personal preference for these guys and how you personally would bid on them. not that i hope that i have to draft them, but i would think that they would perform better than Wada from the Cubs @ $3.

just curious for your thoughts and any insight you can provide.

[Hobbesmonkey]

I can't help you because while I understand that fantasy players like to number crunch out the wazoo...project players values, etc. and for many it is indeed fun, I do none of that.

I keep the players that are at the prices I like for them and I draft the players I want or feel will produce a quality season. I don't focus on their projected, relative, or any other perceived or calculated worth. I always felt that it was silly for someone to value a player for "X" dollars and then refuse to go over that price to get him. Bottom line is getting a team that YOU feel will give you the chance to win and paying for the players you want. I think trying to get maximum profit at the auction is folly indeed and doesn't necessarily lead to a better team.

[james33]

Great question. I see the negative pitching values as well, which reflects largely the negative impact on ERA and WHIP that a bad SP can have.

I don't add a positive dollar value to everyone to get the 276th player (12 teams x 23 players/team in my leagues) up to $1 from a negative. But I do assign roughly the bottom 25 guys (242-276) a $1 value, but with a sort order so I know who I like best. Sometimes this method results in me moving a -$3 player up to $1, and sometimes a $2 down to $1. Not sure how logical that is, as clearly the $2 player is better than the -$3 player. But because everyone else has slightly different lists, so about half of my bottom 25 end up not getting auctioned, the $2 player can go for $1. And because of this, I never end up with the 276th best player on my list, even though he is assigned a $1 value in my spreadsheet.

What I've found over the years as well is that other owners are using different sources, and aren't as anti-bad SP as I am. So what ends up happening is that I end up getting solid MR for $1 rather than bad SP. So I've learned to be sure to buy 5 SP for $5+.

[madducks]

I can't help you because while I understand that fantasy players like to number crunch out the wazoo...project players values, etc. and for many it is indeed fun, I do none of that.

I keep the players that are at the prices I like for them and I draft the players I want or feel will produce a quality season. I don't focus on their projected, relative, or any other perceived or calculated worth. I always felt that it was silly for someone to value a player for "X" dollars and then refuse to go over that price to get him. Bottom line is getting a team that YOU feel will give you the chance to win and paying for the players you want. I think trying to get maximum profit at the auction is folly indeed and doesn't necessarily lead to a better team.

Sounds like my strategy. You can prepare for an auction but you can never plan for one.

[redbroyer]

I can't help you because while I understand that fantasy players like to number crunch out the wazoo...project players values, etc. and for many it is indeed fun, I do none of that.

I keep the players that are at the prices I like for them and I draft the players I want or feel will produce a quality season. I don't focus on their projected, relative, or any other perceived or calculated worth. I always felt that it was silly for someone to value a player for "X" dollars and then refuse to go over that price to get him. Bottom line is getting a team that YOU feel will give you the chance to win and paying for the players you want. I think trying to get maximum profit at the auction is folly indeed and doesn't necessarily lead to a better team.

understood, and i agree. i just like to get a feel where most people are likely to stop or at least, become hesitant on bidding higher. i understand the strategy of bidding to a "9" as some are not happy with eclipsing the "10" mark and see it as being too expensive (i.e. $19 vs. $20, etc). i also know that some use a strategy of "shock and awe" where a bid will jump $20 to $30 and catch people off guard, even when the player is worth every bit of $35 (i.e. jumping from $10 to $33 on Kershaw). i get that auctions are fluid and you have to go with who you want and eschew the linear model of a hard dollar value. i am just wanting to use this perceived hard value as a means of attempting to figure out where people are most likely to stop/slow.

[redbroyer]

Great question. I see the negative pitching values as well, which reflects largely the negative impact on ERA and WHIP that a bad SP can have.

I don't add a positive dollar value to everyone to get the 276th player (12 teams x 23 players/team in my leagues) up to $1 from a negative. But I do assign roughly the bottom 25 guys (242-276) a $1 value, but with a sort order so I know who I like best. Sometimes this method results in me moving a -$3 player up to $1, and sometimes a $2 down to $1. Not sure how logical that is, as clearly the $2 player is better than the -$3 player. But because everyone else has slightly different lists, so about half of my bottom 25 end up not getting auctioned, the $2 player can go for $1. And because of this, I never end up with the 276th best player on my list, even though he is assigned a $1 value in my spreadsheet.

What I've found over the years as well is that other owners are using different sources, and aren't as anti-bad SP as I am. So what ends up happening is that I end up getting solid MR for $1 rather than bad SP. So I've learned to be sure to buy 5 SP for $5+.

makes sense that it's more of a negative impact on your team than a positive one. i appreciate the response. your final statement is how i got Betances for $1 last season and am keeping him for this one.