Four keepers to decide on

[Erik]

10-team hybrid league. We draft from 16 teams, some AL, some NL, but there are also ways in which we can roster players not from those 16 teams. So value-wise it ends up being like a 16-team mixed league.

5x5 with OBP and net steals. Our cap is $75, so I've included the actual salary along with the "translation" to what it would be in a $260 cap. There are no long-term contracts; all keeper decisions are on a year-to-year basis. To keep someone you have to pay him 150% of his previous year's salary or $1, whichever is greater.

Each year, the pool of 16 teams is different (we vote on which ones we want to use), but we can keep players whose teams were booted from the pool. Those are marked with an asterisk; I would not be able to redraft them unless they were called in the one round in which we nominate players from teams not in the pool (yes, we have a lot of odd rules).

We have a huge turnover in pool teams this year and SP will be deep. Most other positions will have plenty of options, with the possible exception of closer (I expect only 12 of them to be available, but one team always punts saves and another will be keeping several at bargain prices.)

We can keep up to 6. Two I am sure of:

OF Puig $1.50 (translation: $5)
P Hamels $3 (translation: $11)*

I need four more from this list. I am leaning toward Frazier, Trumbo and Sanchez, but am not wedded to them, and have no idea on the last spot. Any prospects, I would have to keep on my bench until they arrived or I cut them. We have a 9-person bench that can include any combination of major leaguers and minor leaguers.

1B/OF Trumbo $3.50 (translation: $12)*
3B/1B Frazier $3.75 (translation: $13)*
3B Asche $1.25 (translation: $4)*
3B M. Franco $1 (translation: $4)*
3B Gallo $1 (translation: $4)*
2B Refsnyder $1 (translation: $4)*
SS C. Seager $1 (translation: $4)
OF Crisp $3.50 (translation: $12)*
OF Piscotty $1 (translation: $4)
OF Revere $3.75 (translation: $13)*
P Duffy $1 (translation: $4)
P Giles $1 (translation: $4)*
P C. Martinez $1.50 (translation: $5)
P H. Owens $1 (translation: $4)*
P Porcello $1.50 (translation: $5)*
P An. Sanchez $3.50 (translation: $12)
P A. Simon $1.25 (translation: $4)
P Stephenson $1 (translation: $4)*
P Uehara $2.25 (translation: $8)*

So, what do you all think?

[DMT]

I'd go with Frazier, Trumbo, Revere, and Uehara.

[joncarlos]

Frazier, Revere and Koji for sure. I really don't like Trumbo in an OBP league. I would keep Seager or Gallo over Stephenson if I went prospect. Maybe even over Franco. How strong is the SP pool? If it sucks, Porcello or Duffy might be interesting, but you said it's deep so I'll assume it doesn't suck. I kinda like Giles too, but I am not sure what you will have in terms of interesting closer candidates.

So I guess I'd go with Trumbo anyway, along with Frazier, Revere and Koji.

[Gregg]

Frazier, Revere and Koji for sure. I really don't like Trumbo in an OBP league. I would keep Seager or Gallo over Stephenson if I went prospect. Maybe even over Franco. How strong is the SP pool? If it sucks, Porcello or Duffy might be interesting, but you said it's deep so I'll assume it doesn't suck. I kinda like Giles too, but I am not sure what you will have in terms of interesting closer candidates.

So I guess I'd go with Trumbo anyway, along with Frazier, Revere and Koji.

Ha, I was thinking along these same lines when I first read his post. I want to keep Duffy on the list but really can't over Trumbo.

[james33]

1) Frazier - great at that price even if he steals less

2) Uehara - elite closer

3) Seager - a lot of upside for future

4) Trumbo instead of Revere since it is OBP; Trumbo takes a lot more walks than Revere does; Revere is more valuable in BA leagues IMO.

By the way, I like your league's strange rules - makes everyone have to think a little more independently/creatively

[DMT]

Trumbo doesn't lose any value with the switch to OBA because his BA blows too. But his power is still well above average and by the looks of it, prospects aren't that highly valued in the league.

[joncarlos]

How is he going to be a full time player? I can't see it, barring injury.

You don't think they're going to 1) keep Tomas at 3B well beyond the point of insanity and/or 2) make Trumbo and Tomas the everyday corner outfielders, Peralta and Inciarte and the corpse of Cody Ross be damned? I think they have an irrational amount of capital invested in those two, and they're going to suck anyway, so they'll try very hard to prove they're right.

[Erik]

Our keepers aren't due until 4/4 (auction is on 4/12), so I have some more time to see how any position battle involving Trumbo might shake out. Everything I've seen indicates he will start in RF, but I don't spend as much time looking for stuff as some of you guys do.

Interesting that none of you picked Sanchez, but now that I think about it, I ought to be able to get him back in the auction for around the same price. This league discounts heavily not only for players starting the season on the DL (which is how I got Hamels for $2 last year), but also for players with an injury history, as Sanchez does. And, as I said before, SP is deep, the only big-time ace being kept is Kershaw.

Do Revere's steals outweigh his deficiency in OBP and his extreme deficiency in HR/RBI at that price? I'm on the fence about that. Hamilton and Gordon will be kept, so there won't be that many "pure steals" guys in the auction.

Prospects have a weird dynamic in this league. They are routinely used as chips for in-season trades, and are routinely scooped up in FAAB by those who are dumping (as was the case with me last year). But since there are only 6 keepers per team, most owners are not willing to keep a prospect if he is not close to contributing in the majors. Therefore, I usually don't pay attention to those who are definitely more than a year away.

I was on the fence about Uehara because of his age and how he wore down at the end of last year, but there will not be many elite closers in the auction. Holland, Chapman, Robertson and Melancon will be kept, Jansen will probably be kept despite his injury, and the Braves were dumped from the pool so Kimbrel won't be available unless nominated in our oddball round.

By the way, I like your league's strange rules - makes everyone have to think a little more independently/creatively

I do too. They used to be even stranger. The league dates back to the mid-80s (and has no original members left!), before Roto was widely codified, so the founders made their own rules from scratch. (e.g., we used to have H/IP and K-BB instead of WHIP and K, because up until the mid-90s the commish calculated the stats each week by hand and faxed stats and standings to everyone, and WHIP was too much of a pain to calculate.) Over time, we have modified some of them to be more in line with standard Roto, but we left the more enjoyable quirky ones. Because we don't know who is going to be nominated in the round where players from non-pool teams are called, and we don't know how many bench players will be rostered in the auction (the $75 cap covers starters and bench, and you can buy 0-9 bench players in the auction, filling in the rest via in-season FAAB if you buy less than 9), you can't plug in a formula that spits out valuations. That forces you to improvise. Most of us are writers so we like that.

Thanks, all!

[Lucky]

Revere and Uehara for sure. I would avoid Trumbo, and look elsewhere for those dingers. He is slower than I am, even moreso now that he broke his foot. He can't beat out a ground rule double.

I would even think about Crisp. They have moved him to LF to keep him healthier, and they know they have to use his speed on the basepaths to create offense this year. There should be a good bit of profit there, and with Revere you should be in good shape in SBs. (Yes, I know this is the ultra-minority position, but I am used to that.)

And probably Frazier.

[Erik]

You don't think they're going to 1) keep Tomas at 3B well beyond the point of insanity and/or 2) make Trumbo and Tomas the everyday corner outfielders, Peralta and Inciarte and the corpse of Cody Ross be damned? I think they have an irrational amount of capital invested in those two, and they're going to suck anyway, so they'll try very hard to prove they're right.

For whatever it's worth, Rotoworld thinks if Tomas can't hack it at 3B and Lamb starts there, Tomas will go to LF and Peralta will lose out, not Trumbo.

Yasmany Tomas went 2-for-3 with a pair of singles in a losing effort against the Giants in Cactus League action on Sunday.
Tomas was again getting the start at third base in this one, and will see his first action in right field during Monday's game. If he is ultimately moved to left field, that would make Jake Lamb the starting third baseman and sap all potential fantasy value away from David Peralta who would be relegated to the bench.

[Erik]

Now for another aspect of our odd league.

If you keep less than 6 players, you can participate in a "waiver draft" before the auction that allows you to plug anyone who wasn't kept off another owner's roster. Order is reverse of the previous year's standings. Last year's basement-dweller is definitely participating and will have the first pick. If I kept 5 instead of 6, I would have the second pick.

I made my keeper projections for the other teams, and they are not 100% certain, but barring any trades, here are some guys who would be available if my projections were totally accurate:

C Mesoraco $1 (translation: $4; his owner also has LuCroy $3 ($11) and one of them will be available as we only start 1 C)
1B Freeman $6.50 (translation: $23)
2B Odor $1 (translation: $4)
SS A. Escobar $1 (translation: $4)
SS H. Ramirez $6.50 (translation: $23)
SS Segura $2.25 (translation: $8)
OF L. Cain $3 (translation: $11)
OF N. Cruz $6.50 (translation: $23)
OF Kemp $6 (translation: $21)
P G. Gonzalez $5.25 (translation: $18)
P Lynn $2 (translation: $7)
P Papelbon $2 (translation: $7)

Should I keep 5 instead of 6 and target someone from this list? Would you cut Uehara based on what we know about his injury?

[joncarlos]

Now for another aspect of our odd league.

If you keep less than 6 players, you can participate in a "waiver draft" before the auction that allows you to plug anyone who wasn't kept off another owner's roster. Order is reverse of the previous year's standings. Last year's basement-dweller is definitely participating and will have the first pick. If I kept 5 instead of 6, I would have the second pick.

I made my keeper projections for the other teams, and they are not 100% certain, but barring any trades, here are some guys who would be available if my projections were totally accurate:

C Mesoraco $1 (translation: $4; his owner also has LuCroy $3 ($11) and one of them will be available as we only start 1 C)
1B Freeman $6.50 (translation: $23)
2B Odor $1 (translation: $4)
SS A. Escobar $1 (translation: $4)
SS H. Ramirez $6.50 (translation: $23)
SS Segura $2.25 (translation: $8)
OF L. Cain $3 (translation: $11)
OF N. Cruz $6.50 (translation: $23)
OF Kemp $6 (translation: $21)
P G. Gonzalez $5.25 (translation: $18)
P Lynn $2 (translation: $7)
P Papelbon $2 (translation: $7)

Should I keep 5 instead of 6 and target someone from this list? Would you cut Uehara based on what we know about his injury?

It's only a hammy, so I'd still keep Koji. But I think I like a lot of these guys more than Revere. Do you think the last place owner picks Mesoraco? I worry about the concussion issues and the OBP but I might still take him if he was there. Otherwise I like Freeman (really nice in OBP league), Gio, Segura or Lynn.

[Erik]

Do you think the last place owner picks Mesoraco?

I think they might pick Hanley as one of them is a Red Sox fan. Mesoraco (or LuCroy, if the guy who has both keeps Mesoraco) is possible; they did take Ramos in the waiver draft last year.

Freeman could be kept, but his owner has been historically averse to keeping guys at $5 or more and also has a $6.50 Harper.

[Erik]

I kept Puig, Hamels, Frazier and Trumbo. Uehara's age and hammy concern me and we do not have the Red Sox in the pool this year so I cannot draft Mujica as a hedge.

This means I have two picks in our waiver draft: the 2nd overall and the 8th overall.

Here are the best values that will be available in the waiver draft. (From my original list 2 posts up, Lynn, Papelbon and Mesoraco were kept. I was expecting Feliz and Jansen to be kept, but they weren't.)

Who should I target?

C Gattis $2.75 (translation: $10)
C S. Perez $2.25 (translation: $8)
C Ramos $1.50 (translation: $5)
1B Cron $1 (translation: $4)
1B Freeman $6.50 (translation: $23)
2B Odor $1 (translation: $4)
SS A. Escobar $1 (translation: $4)
SS H. Ramirez $6.50 (translation: $23)
SS Segura $2.25 (translation: $8)
3B Castellanos $1.50 (translation: $5)
3B A. Rodriguez $1 (translation: $4)
OF L. Cain $3 (translation: $11)
OF C. Crawford $1.25 (translation: $4)
OF Cruz $6.50 (translation: $23)
OF R. Davis $1.25 (translation: $4)
OF Kemp $6 (translation: $21)
SP G. Gonzalez $5.25 (translation: $18)
SP S. Greene $1 (translation: $4)
SP Leake $1 (translation: $4)
SP Odorizzi $1.50 (translation: $5)
SP Pineda $3 (translation: $11)
RP Casilla $3.50 (translation: $12)
RP Clippard $1 (translation: $4)
RP Feliz $1 (translation: $4)
RP Jansen $2.25 (translation: $8)

[joncarlos]

Jansen looks like a really good option there. So does Segura. Gattis also jumps out, and after that, maybe Odorizzi, Hanley, Rajai, Castellanos, Clippard, and LoCain.