NL-only keepers

[joncarlos]

12 teams, $260, 14 hitters (but 2 UT and 1 C), 9 pitchers. Crazy high inflation on hitters. Pitchers go pretty high too but not nearly as crazy.

Can keep up to 10.

Almost definite:
1 OF Giancarlo Stanton 15 x
2 SP Clayton Kershaw 40 s2
3 SP Zack Wheeler 5 s2
4 RP Trevor Rosenthal 7 x
5 OF Marlon Byrd 3 opt (no extension)
6 SS Chris Owings 1 opt (was probably going to extend 1 year to 6)

And then 4 from this list:
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2
SS Jhonny Peralta 16 s2
1B Adrian Gonzalez 41 s2
OF Carl Crawford 19 s2
OF Jon Jay 6 s2
OF David Peralta 7 s2
SP Jake Peavy 17 s2
RP Tony Watson 1 s2
OF Andre Ethier 14 s2

I think right now I'd be leaning towards Rollins, IPK and Jhonny Peralta, even though that's 3 shortstops. Given the speed situation in the NL I was thinking maybe Crawford?

[Gregg]

Shouldn't you be able to trade Kennedy and Peralta for an upgrade?

[joncarlos]

So far the only teams who want to trade are teams with 10 keepers better than those two. The other teams are less on the ball, though I'm certainly trying.

[Gregg]

Given that I would go in with 3 SS and let them find out the shortage at auction day. Given the difference in talent between the 3 you should be able to make a trade that helps right after the auction.

Crawford at $19 is bit scary. Might keep Jay for the cost savings.

[The Dane]

Yeah, I think JPeralta and Kennedy jump out at me as the best of the bunch. Crawford and Rollins are borderline to me, but inflation is as extreme as you say, then they're solid plays. DPeralta is also someone to consider, and also Watson, but they're a tier below.

[james33]

I agree w your almost definite list, including extension decisions.

Here's how I'd rank the rest, tiered.

1) SS Jhonny Peralta 16 s2 - no brainer; power from the SS position, and he went for $18 uninflated in LABR.

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2) SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2 - just $1 or $2 above his uninflated value; well worth keeping.

I wouldn't worry about having too many SS; injuries happen, and you have two UT spots. Also, at any given time, there's a chance that one of your 3 SS will be hurt. Or, another team loses their only SS and you can trade with them in season.

3) SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2 - also just $1 or $2 above his uninflated value, so well worth keeping.

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4) OF David Peralta 7 s2 - seems quite keepable at this price; he'd be my 4th today. Even if he doesn't end up in the opening day starting lineup, I think he'll continue to hit and will get plenty of at bats; he's probably 1st man up in case of injury at 1B/3B/LF/RF, and he did even get some PT at CF last year as well.

5) OF Carl Crawford 19 s2 - not a bad alternative but slightly too expensive for my taste. Sometimes these old guys don't go for quite as much inflated value as the younger guys.

6) OF Jon Jay 6 s2 - he keeps managing to get more PT, outproduce what people think each year, but, because of this, you might be able to get him back for $7 or so if you really want him.

I don't think you can go wrong with any of the above OF.
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7) RP Tony Watson 1 s2 - you could do worse as a $1 pitcher, but I prefer to grab a new $1 pitcher. If that $1 pitcher becomes a closer somehow, he's worth more if he starts off with a new contract.

8) OF Andre Ethier 14 s2 - I'd dump him if you need to make decision before he ends up traded. There's a chance that as a starter somewhere he could be worth $18, but not enuf to hold onto just in case he is traded to right situation. But if he gets traded to the right situation before your keeper decision, he might be your 4th keeper.
-----------------------------------------------
9) 1B Adrian Gonzalez 41 s2 - from what you describe of inflation, he might go for this at auction, but $41 still seems way too high to keep.

10) SP Jake Peavy 17 s2 - overpriced, I'd dump him.

[chancellor]

Jhonny P
~
Kennedy
Rollins
~
Jay
D. Peralta
~
Crawford
Watson
AGonz
~
Don't bother

[whalewang]

I prefer Rollins over Jhonny Peralta. I fear a healthy dose of regression for both of these guys though. Kennedy does too much damage to my WHiP for me to keep him at that price. I like the rest of the questionable keepers even less. I might keep Watson though but James33 makes a good point about him. In the end keep Rollins and maybe Watson and keep both of those UTL slots open for a flexible draft.

[axman]

I agree with Chancellor. Tough call on Jay vs. Peralta. Would lean Jay.

Jhonny P
~
Kennedy
Rollins
~
Jay
D. Peralta
~
Crawford
Watson
AGonz
~
Don't bother

[joncarlos]

Thanks everyone for the great feedback! I finally managed to make a trade, flipping Jhonny Peralta for a $14 Matt Carpenter. Given that I think I'll probably keep Owings and Rollins, and I think I like Kennedy enough to make him my 2nd SP. Which basically leaves me with 1 spot let:

Planning to keep these 9:
OF Giancarlo Stanton 15 x
3B Matt Carpenter 14 g16
SP Clayton Kershaw 40 s2
SP Zack Wheeler 5 s2
RP Trevor Rosenthal 7 x
OF Marlon Byrd 3 opt (no extension)
SS Chris Owings 1 opt (will extend to 6)
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2

That's 9 guys for 124.

Then 1 of these guys:
OF Jon Jay 6 s2
OF Carl Crawford 19 s2
OF David Peralta 7 s2
RP Tony Watson 1 s2

Peralta had 329ab last year and went .286-8-36-40r-6sb. He had 2 steals in 223pa at Double-A so I am not confident the speed comes back. Tomas is likely to end up in the outfield but maybe AZ makes a trade. Steamer has him at .271-7-4sb. FG projects 315pa. He went for 9 in LABR.

Jay had 413ab last year and went .303-3-46-52r-6sb. He stole 10 bases in 628pa in 2013 so I'm guessing 6 in 400 is about his usual pace. Bourjos may be healthier this year and Heyward can technically play CF if the Cards want to go with more of Grichuk and Piscotty. Steamer has him at .277-5-6sb. FG projects 420pa. He went for 10 in LABR.

Crawford had 343ab last year and went .300-8-46-56r-23sb. He is sort of expected to play most every day and hit leadoff, though Rollins and even Kendrick can also bat leadoff and Ethier and SVS need to find their ABs. FG projects 465pa, steamer says .273-9-17sb. He went for 17 in LABR.

Watson went for 2 in LABR despite his amazing year last year.

What does that 10 bucks by me? In Crawford there's a little more upside that he finds 550 PAs if he's somehow healthy, and he'll give me 10-15 more steals. Or I could use that $10 to upgrade something like a $10 Coghlan to a $20 Aoki at auction. Maybe there's a better way to spend the money instead of on upgrading Jay to Crawford before the auction starts.

[Sharky]

Thanks everyone for the great feedback! I finally managed to make a trade, flipping Jhonny Peralta for a $14 Matt Carpenter. Given that I think I'll probably keep Owings and Rollins, and I think I like Kennedy enough to make him my 2nd SP. Which basically leaves me with 1 spot let:

Planning to keep these 9:
OF Giancarlo Stanton 15 x
3B Matt Carpenter 14 g16
SP Clayton Kershaw 40 s2
SP Zack Wheeler 5 s2
RP Trevor Rosenthal 7 x
OF Marlon Byrd 3 opt (no extension)
SS Chris Owings 1 opt (will extend to 6)
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2

That's 9 guys for 124.

Then 1 of these guys:
OF Jon Jay 6 s2
OF Carl Crawford 19 s2
OF David Peralta 7 s2
RP Tony Watson 1 s2

Peralta had 329ab last year and went .286-8-36-40r-6sb. He had 2 steals in 223pa at Double-A so I am not confident the speed comes back. Tomas is likely to end up in the outfield but maybe AZ makes a trade. Steamer has him at .271-7-4sb. FG projects 315pa. He went for 9 in LABR.

Jay had 413ab last year and went .303-3-46-52r-6sb. He stole 10 bases in 628pa in 2013 so I'm guessing 6 in 400 is about his usual pace. Bourjos may be healthier this year and Heyward can technically play CF if the Cards want to go with more of Grichuk and Piscotty. Steamer has him at .277-5-6sb. FG projects 420pa. He went for 10 in LABR.

Crawford had 343ab last year and went .300-8-46-56r-23sb. He is sort of expected to play most every day and hit leadoff, though Rollins and even Kendrick can also bat leadoff and Ethier and SVS need to find their ABs. FG projects 465pa, steamer says .273-9-17sb. He went for 17 in LABR.

Watson went for 2 in LABR despite his amazing year last year.

What does that 10 bucks by me? In Crawford there's a little more upside that he finds 550 PAs if he's somehow healthy, and he'll give me 10-15 more steals. Or I could use that $10 to upgrade something like a $10 Coghlan to a $20 Aoki at auction. Maybe there's a better way to spend the money instead of on upgrading Jay to Crawford before the auction starts.

Good squad, JC. As to your last pick, I think it's Jay or Crawford. Peralta may not play enough. And while Watson is great, he won't help enough in your league (and you can get him back for $5 at most, I suspect). I lean slightly to Crawford over Jay, as his upside is higher (particularly for SB, which you don't seem to have much of).

[Gregg]

Thanks everyone for the great feedback! I finally managed to make a trade, flipping Jhonny Peralta for a $14 Matt Carpenter. Given that I think I'll probably keep Owings and Rollins, and I think I like Kennedy enough to make him my 2nd SP. Which basically leaves me with 1 spot let:

Planning to keep these 9:
OF Giancarlo Stanton 15 x
3B Matt Carpenter 14 g16
SP Clayton Kershaw 40 s2
SP Zack Wheeler 5 s2
RP Trevor Rosenthal 7 x
OF Marlon Byrd 3 opt (no extension)
SS Chris Owings 1 opt (will extend to 6)
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2

That's 9 guys for 124.

Then 1 of these guys:
OF Jon Jay 6 s2
OF Carl Crawford 19 s2
OF David Peralta 7 s2
RP Tony Watson 1 s2

Peralta had 329ab last year and went .286-8-36-40r-6sb. He had 2 steals in 223pa at Double-A so I am not confident the speed comes back. Tomas is likely to end up in the outfield but maybe AZ makes a trade. Steamer has him at .271-7-4sb. FG projects 315pa. He went for 9 in LABR.

Jay had 413ab last year and went .303-3-46-52r-6sb. He stole 10 bases in 628pa in 2013 so I'm guessing 6 in 400 is about his usual pace. Bourjos may be healthier this year and Heyward can technically play CF if the Cards want to go with more of Grichuk and Piscotty. Steamer has him at .277-5-6sb. FG projects 420pa. He went for 10 in LABR.

Crawford had 343ab last year and went .300-8-46-56r-23sb. He is sort of expected to play most every day and hit leadoff, though Rollins and even Kendrick can also bat leadoff and Ethier and SVS need to find their ABs. FG projects 465pa, steamer says .273-9-17sb. He went for 17 in LABR.

Watson went for 2 in LABR despite his amazing year last year.

What does that 10 bucks by me? In Crawford there's a little more upside that he finds 550 PAs if he's somehow healthy, and he'll give me 10-15 more steals. Or I could use that $10 to upgrade something like a $10 Coghlan to a $20 Aoki at auction. Maybe there's a better way to spend the money instead of on upgrading Jay to Crawford before the auction starts.

Your comment about Crawford is why I picked Jay as the keeper. If you throw Crawford back you can spend the money on other options or maybe get Crawford back at a slight discount (or at least a new contract). With Jay you make some profit so it is not a wasted roster spot.

[joncarlos]

All right! We're finally getting somewhere. I flipped Wheeler and Crawford/AGonz/Watson to a team that was light on keepers for Todd Frazier. Now I don't have to worry about the cluster that is NL 1B this year.

OF Giancarlo Stanton 15 x
3B Matt Carpenter 14 g16
SP Clayton Kershaw 40 s2
1B/3B Todd Frazier 5 opt (will extend to 10 or 15)
RP Trevor Rosenthal 7 x
OF Marlon Byrd 3 opt
SS Chris Owings 1 opt (will extend to 6)
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2

OF Jon Jay 6 s2 or OF David Peralta 7 s2

[Moonlight J]

And then 4 from this list:
SS Jimmy Rollins 20 s2
SP Ian Kennedy 14 s2
SS Jhonny Peralta 16 s2
1B Adrian Gonzalez 41 s2
OF Carl Crawford 19 s2
OF Jon Jay 6 s2
OF David Peralta 7 s2
SP Jake Peavy 17 s2
RP Tony Watson 1 s2
OF Andre Ethier 14 s2

Those would be my 4

[james33]

I'd go Peralta.

I simply see more competition for Cardinal 1B/3B/OF atbats than I do for Arizona at bats.

Arizona CI/OF
Safe PT (3): Goldy, Trumbo, Pollock
Competing for PT (4): Tomas, Peralta, Lamb, Ross

St. Louis CI/OF
Safe PT (4): Holliday, Carpenter, Heyward, Adams
Competing for PT (4): Jay, Bourjos, Grichuk, Piscotty

Were they both full time players, stats-wise, they seem similar to me. Peralta a touch more HR, Jay a touch more SB. Peralta might hit earlier in the lineup, leading to more R/RBI, while Jay may often hit 8th when he plays.