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This isn't as scientific as it could be, but a few weeks ago, I took the ADP from the NFBC drafts, and extrapolated dollar values for an NL-only league, based on how dollar values had gone in the past (i.e., the 10th highest ADP from NFBC received the 10th highest dollar value from past autions in my spreadsheet).
My ADP is a bit outdated; I grabbed it a few weeks ago so it isn't a perfect analysis, and of course auction dynamics/timing can influence the ultimate price, but I'd still love your thoughts. Below are the biggest differences by position from NFBC a few weeks ago vs last night's NL LABR auction.
C: Montero $15 went for more than Rosario $12.
1B: The lesser (#12-#14 by rank) 1B went for more than I thought they would: Lind $17, Morse $16, Howard $15. I thought they'd be $5 below Morneau ($18).
3B: Pedro Alvarez $23, Kris Bryant $16.
2B: Jose Peraza (last year, played Hi A and AA) went for $10. Maybe he'll be opening day starter? I'm skeptical. Also, Kolten Wong $25 closer to Gordon $26 than Murphy $18.
SS: Segura $25, Baez $11. Similar ADP. I'm not a fan of Baez at all, fear he'll K too much to stay in the bigs, but for $12?
OF: Ozuna $25 went for more than Kemp $23.
SP: Bumgarner $24 went for same as Harvey $24 and just one more than Zimmerman $23, rather than being close to Scherzer $32. Also, Latos went for just $9. SP is deep this year in NL-only.
RP: No huge surprises - Jansen and Reed went for less, but injury / likelihood of losing job are factors.
My ADP is a bit outdated; I grabbed it a few weeks ago so it isn't a perfect analysis, and of course auction dynamics/timing can influence the ultimate price, but I'd still love your thoughts. Below are the biggest differences by position from NFBC a few weeks ago vs last night's NL LABR auction.
C: Montero $15 went for more than Rosario $12.
1B: The lesser (#12-#14 by rank) 1B went for more than I thought they would: Lind $17, Morse $16, Howard $15. I thought they'd be $5 below Morneau ($18).
3B: Pedro Alvarez $23, Kris Bryant $16.
2B: Jose Peraza (last year, played Hi A and AA) went for $10. Maybe he'll be opening day starter? I'm skeptical. Also, Kolten Wong $25 closer to Gordon $26 than Murphy $18.
SS: Segura $25, Baez $11. Similar ADP. I'm not a fan of Baez at all, fear he'll K too much to stay in the bigs, but for $12?
OF: Ozuna $25 went for more than Kemp $23.
SP: Bumgarner $24 went for same as Harvey $24 and just one more than Zimmerman $23, rather than being close to Scherzer $32. Also, Latos went for just $9. SP is deep this year in NL-only.
RP: No huge surprises - Jansen and Reed went for less, but injury / likelihood of losing job are factors.
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