Here's why I don't think very much of ADP...

I spent some time this morning looking at ADP, and I was surprised by some of the players ranked higher and some ranked lower.There seemed to be a whole lot of "flavor of the month" picks and rookie speculation, while some boring but proven performers fell down the rankings. A lot of this could be explained by recency bias.

But what dawned on me, and caused me to lose a little faith in the process is the fact that...14 out of every 15 of these picks are made by guys who lost their leagues.

And besides, who wants to have an "average" draft?

[Judge Jude]

I think you're misunderstanding the point of ADP as a tool. It's not to tell YOU where to draft players; it's to tell you where the marketplace is tending to draft players.

If you think a player would be good value in the 10th round, but he's tended to go in the 6th or so, then you know he'll almost certainly not last to you. But if that same player is going around the 14th round, then you know you might even be able to wait until Rd 12 to get him, thus effectively getting players you see as a good 10th round choices in both the 10th and the 12th rounds.

[cardboardbox]

speaking of ADP, where is it on CBS this year?

[bryanbutler]

agree with JJ. i hadn't done a straight draft in probably 15 years until real mock 1 last year. i took ADP as an indicator of where i should take players, and had a crappy draft. this year i used it more in the way that JJ describes, and ended up with a much better draft.

then yu darvish needed TJ ><.

[Moonlight J]

Also, understand that ADP is mostly driven by the NFBC format where people have to draft balanced rosters because you cannot trade during the season. C

[Lucky]

Well that all makes sense

I now see how how it can be great way to spot guys who will be potential bargains

Getting three or four guys a couple of rounds early is like getting an extra pick in a higher round

Thanks for the explanation and tips

[The Dane]

I only do auctions and I find ADP incredibly valuable, again, not for telling me where I should target a player, but where everyone else will be targeting him. It really helps me grab late-round guys I'm high on, and toss out players that will go for more than they should.

Because prices vary so widely between leagues, an average price is less valuable (to me anyway) than a draft list like ADP.

[Hobbesmonkey]

Do the other owners in your leagues actually pay attention to ADP so that it might benefit you?

I believe the other owners in my league pay no attention to ADP lists, so the value of these lists is pretty much nil for me.

[mgwiz22]

Also, understand that ADP is mostly driven by the NFBC format where people have to draft balanced rosters because you cannot trade during the season. C

I think you always have to have a balanced roster. Getting somebody in order to trade them is too hit and miss.

[The Dane]

Do the other owners in your leagues actually pay attention to ADP so that it might benefit you?

I believe the other owners in my league pay no attention to ADP lists, so the value of these lists is pretty much nil for me.

ADP isn't something the owners in your league follow because they read it. ADP just shows the trends, what people think of so-and-so player. So, if you notice that Nolan Arenado is going WAY higher than you value him at, perhaps that means you toss him out early and watch your leaguemates bid him way up. On other hand, maybe you are high on Arenado, but notice that he is going much lower than you would expect, well, that would mean that you could probably land him a little cheaper than your high bid. Of course, it doesn't work all the time and it only takes one other owner to bid you up to full value, but it is a very handy tool on the whole.

[Hobbesmonkey]

ADP isn't something the owners in your league follow because they read it. ADP just shows the trends, what people think of so-and-so player. So, if you notice that Nolan Arenado is going WAY higher than you value him at, perhaps that means you toss him out early and watch your leaguemates bid him way up. On other hand, maybe you are high on Arenado, but notice that he is going much lower than you would expect, well, that would mean that you could probably land him a little cheaper than your high bid. Of course, it doesn't work all the time and it only takes one other owner to bid you up to full value, but it is a very handy tool on the whole.

But again doesn't that rely on your league mates actually following the same trend? I guess I don't place much value on ADP trends because it relies on my league mates to feel the same way and that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the 20+ years I have been in my league I have never once even looked at ADP with any degree of seriousness. Mileage of course varies

[The Dane]

But again doesn't that rely on your league mates actually following the same trend? I guess I don't place much value on ADP trends because it relies on my league mates to feel the same way and that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the 20+ years I have been in my league I have never once even looked at ADP with any degree of seriousness. Mileage of course varies

I guess I'm not explaining myself well. The guys whose drafts make up the ADP aren't drafting using the ADP as a guide, they are using EVERYTHING ELSE as their guide. Their drafts reflect what people have read and watched and extrapolated and how all that shows up in a draft setting. Assuming the owners in your league DON'T look at ADP, then they are drafting off the same information that many of the ADP drafters used, and are probably more likely to follow the trends you see when you look at ADP.

ADP is simply an educated guess as to how players will be valued in your league. It's not perfect, nothing is, but it's very handy to know what people may be thinking.

For what it's worth, I have one league where I'm sure maybe me and one or two other owners even know what ADP is. In this league, ADP really works to show me what they might be thinking. It's also an early draft (the 21st this year) which makes it even MORE valuable for that league. In my later drafts (April 10 and 12), it's of less utility.

[heyelander]

yeah, you're putting the cart before the horse here Hobbesmonkey. ADP is reflecting where people are drafting, not driving or telling people where to draft. Of course there are individual outliers in your league that can screw up any plan, if it's a local league, the home team's guys may go earlier than expected... man crushes get drafted earlier, etc, but it tells you what the general consensus is on guys and you can find your own outliers.

[Hobbesmonkey]

I guess I'm not explaining myself well. The guys whose drafts make up the ADP aren't drafting using the ADP as a guide, they are using EVERYTHING ELSE as their guide. Their drafts reflect what people have read and watched and extrapolated and how all that shows up in a draft setting. Assuming the owners in your league DON'T look at ADP, then they are drafting off the same information that many of the ADP drafters used, and are probably more likely to follow the trends you see when you look at ADP.

ADP is simply an educated guess as to how players will be valued in your league. It's not perfect, nothing is, but it's very handy to know what people may be thinking.
For what it's worth, I have one league where I'm sure maybe me and one or two other owners even know what ADP is. In this league, ADP really works to show me what they might be thinking. It's also an early draft (the 21st this year) which makes it even MORE valuable for that league. In my later drafts (April 10 and 12), it's of less utility.

Thanks Dane!

[Hobbesmonkey]

yeah, you're putting the cart before the horse here Hobbesmonkey. ADP is reflecting where people are drafting, not driving or telling people where to draft. Of course there are individual outliers in your league that can screw up any plan, if it's a local league, the home team's guys may go earlier than expected... man crushes get drafted earlier, etc, but it tells you what the general consensus is on guys and you can find your own outliers.

I guess it depends on how much you think your league-mates line up with the hundreds or thousands of other drafters that go into ADP, right?