Greetings....and a quick question

greetings all! as another season of fantasy baseball approaches, i am sure we are all geared up for the excitement that a new season holds.

i am in the process of determining my keepers and believe that i have nailed down a good portion of them at this point. the question i would like to pose is regarding a trade that has been proposed.

our format: 12 team mixed 5x5 roto (obp, HR, R, RBI, SB) x (W, S, ERA, WHIP, K)
teams consist of: 14 positional players and 9 (non specific) pitchers with a budget of $260

the proposed trade is as follows.

i give:
SP Justin Verlander (cost if kept: $6)

i receive:
SP Kevin Gausman (cost if kept: $4)


as this is the keeper stage, the rest of my roster is essentially inconsequential ( i will post that question in another topic for discussion ). i will say that of the pitchers i am keeping, my closest projected ace is Garrett Richards. i am trying to determine which of the two will provide a greater return with the least amount of risk as i plan on attempting to gain an ace type in the draft (a significant amount will be available as many are at insane contracts that are prohibitive from year to year).


my arguments for keeping each pitcher:
i believe Gausman is the better option as he is only 24, Duquette seems to think he will break out this season, and his salary is more palatable should he indeed break out and i need to retain him for 2016.

i believe Verlander is the better player as he has a proven track record save 2013 and 2014. he believes his 2014 season was lost due to the core surgery performed at the beginning of the season. he has the potential for greater strikeout numbers and a proven offense supports him. his manager and bullpen catcher both appear impressed with his pitching precamp and thusfar.


my arguments against each player:
Gausman is still an unproven talent that struggled last season.

Verlander has struggled over the past couple of seasons. He is also older and a serious arm injury is more likely to occur with him at his advanced age and the number of innings on his arm.


thoughts?

[joncarlos]

How do keepers work? Can you keep either JV or Gausman indefinitely at those prices? Keep them for 3 years? Keep them 2 and then you have to extend them?

I heart JV and I would have a hard time dealing him at such a low point, but I agree that Gausman has really nice future value at this point.

[redbroyer]

ugh...and here i thought i did well explaining the league mechanics, and yet....i failed again. lol

salaries go up $5 each season a player is kept. unless he is traded during the offseason, then his salary only goes up $3. so in this scenario both players are at a $1 salary from last season, but i can keep Gausman at $4 since i would be bringing him in via trade (his 2016 salary would be $9). the number of years a player can be kept is only limited by how much you want to keep him at.

[mgwiz22]

I wouldn't make the deal. You seem to like Verlander, he is at a good price and isn't old. Gausman might turn into a great pitcher but odds are he doesn't.

[kldub4life]

I think thi comes down to what you believe Gausman's career is going to look like.

Personally I dont see him being an elite K guy and honestly who was the last Roto top tier SP in Baltimore, Mussina?

Verlander may trule be over the hill but I like his chances of producing an elite caliber season than Gausmans.

[The Dane]

I'd do it for sure. The time to bail out on JV was a while back. Fortunately, your trading partner didn't get that memo.

I agree. Sell on Verlander while you can. I don't think either pitcher will have an elite season next year, but Gausman has a greater upside.

[Sour Masher]

I agree. Sell on Verlander while you can. I don't think either pitcher will have an elite season next year, but Gausman has a greater upside.

So you guys don't think it is even remotely possible that Verlander's stomach injury last year was part of the issue? I know ST best shape of my life noise is next to worthless to listen to, but is it possible that a rededicated and healthy JV rebounds at all? Even if he never regains his former stuff, couldn't he adjust to his new stuff at least a little better than he did last year?

As far as this decision, it is a tough call--choosing between who appears to be a has been, and a guy who hasn't been anything yet in the majors. Long term, I'd go Gausman, but for just this year, I'm not sure yet. If JV looks good this spring, I might buy into enough of a rebound to be at least better than Gausman.

[Sour Masher]

I think the likelihood of an aging pitcher with a gazillion miles on his arm and the reddest of red flags in terms of velocity, etc. regaining his former glory is smaller than the likelihood that an extremely highly touted prospect coming off of an impressive rookie showing makes the next step. Sure, anything's possible, but I know who'd I'd gamble on.

Interestingly, Steamer has them both projected for just about the same performance. Given that, I'd go with youth.

You are probably right. I just hope that someone believes in him enough to bid him up in my auction. At a cheap enough price, the possibility of him rebounding even partially is too tempting to pass up. But I hate taking such risks. My favorite feeling in an auction is when injury prone stars like Cargo and Tulo, or former glory guys like JV get bid up well past the point I'd consider them at. Luckily, my league chases upside, so they always do. That also means guys like Gausman don't end up on my team either, if they are in the auction, but that leaves lots of value in the boring, reliable middle.

[revo]

So you guys don't think it is even remotely possible that Verlander's stomach injury last year was part of the issue? I know ST best shape of my life noise is next to worthless to listen to, but is it possible that a rededicated and healthy JV rebounds at all? Even if he never regains his former stuff, couldn't he adjust to his new stuff at least a little better than he did last year?

As far as this decision, it is a tough call--choosing between who appears to be a has been, and a guy who hasn't been anything yet in the majors. Long term, I'd go Gausman, but for just this year, I'm not sure yet. If JV looks good this spring, I might buy into enough of a rebound to be at least better than Gausman.

It's possible Verlander rebounds, but the larger problem for fantasy owners is twofold:
- it's likely you're going to have him in your starting lineup; and,
- if you do and he doesn't improve, since he throws so many innings he could literally sink your team's chances of having a competitive pitching unit (and hence, being competitive at all). 210 innings of a 1.40 WHIP is devastating in today's ultra-low WHIP environment.

I'd take my chances on Gausman. I wouldn't touch Verlander with a 10-ft. pole.

[rhd]

I think there are good arguments either way, but I would not make this trade.

[redbroyer]

ok, so i didn't pull the trigger on the Gausman deal. we had some league issues and (in short) the trade offer was messed up as our rosters were jacked by CBS.

i am planning on offering him another trade though. after looking at some other posts on here, i think i already know the answer, but i'll ask anyway.

Verlander for Salazar is pretty much a no brainer, right? Same salary would apply. each are $1 currently and i would basically be trading a $6 Verlander for a $4 Salazar. our salary goes up $5 each year kept unless they are traded in the offseason, then it only goes up $3.

the other thought i was having is Verlander for Boegarts. Boegarts would cost me $11 for 2015 and i'm a little skeptical based on last year, but SS is so thin.....

[redbroyer]

in this instance, i would be making the offer. do you believe there is a better option of the two?

Verlander for Salazar (Keep Salazar @ $4)
Verlander for Boegarts (Keep Boegarts @ $11)

[redbroyer]

i fired the offer away for Salazar. if he balks, then i'll go after Bogaerts. thanks for the feedback again.

[redbroyer]

well, he accepted. so i now have Danny Salazar on my roster for $4. for some reason i have become enamored with Tribe pitching lately....

[redbroyer]

thanks for your thoughts and feedback. i appreciate your help!

i am hoping that the trend continues. i selected Cliff Lee the year he broke out and i got Kluber last season. hopefully Salazar continues the tradition. i'm also thinking about going after Bauer too.