DeGrom or Carrasco for Felix

[Sour Masher]

I have an offer of a $5 DeGrom or a $5 Carrasco for my $69 Felix Hernandez in my 14 team $400 cap, 15 keeper points league. I know the salary seems really high on Felix, but the point system really favors the top tier aces, and Felix would likely go for more in the auction this year. With so many keepers and the larger cap, it creates a stars and scrubs auction. One or two elites each year (top of 1st round types) have gone triple digits in years past, and mid tier guys are often at good values. For this reason, I like the price certainty on Felix, and both the guys offered have big upside, but could bust.

I know the salaries are hard to convert, but basically I am asking if you would keep a slightly undervalued superstar or trade for one of these better valued up and comers. I believe in Carrasco's talent more than deGrom's, but both of their ability to stay healthy for a full season concerns me. I feel both are better values, but maybe not better for me since I have a defending championship team with a lot of value and the cap room to keep the pricey ace. If I do the deal, my plan would be to use the money to land Scherzer. He could easily go for over $70 though.

[Gregg]

So the question at hand is Scherzer plus Carrasco better than Felix and who ever else you can buy for about 6 or 7 bucks. On the surface it seems like maybe you should make that trade. But if you make the trade you are committed to buy Scherzer no matter the cost.

You did mention "easily go over $70 bucks". What does that look like in a worse case scenario 75, 80, 90, 100? It makes a huge difference.

What years are these contracts in? This is also kind of important in making the determination. If DeGrom and Carrasco are one and done and Felix is in year one, I don't do the trade reverse that and I might.

[joncarlos]

So what would it cost to get a DeGrom type back? Or someone even remotely comparable or maybe it's better to say someone with the potential to be comparable? Let's say you go DeGrom for 5 and Scherzer for 100. Compare that to Felix at 69 and Drew Hutchinson at what? If a Hutchinson type is going to go for 20 or 30 then maybe the DeGrom/Scherzer side is better. Or if you want more of a sure thing what would it cost for Felix and a legit #2 like Cobb or Smyly?

[Sour Masher]

Their contracts are all the same--they can be kept this year at their cost, and extended next year, or kept next year at the same cost.

As far as auction prices, it is tough to say. Their seems to have been a market corrrection on SPs last year. Two year's ago, a team decided to spend all of his auction money landing the top two aces--Felix and Verlander. That team paid $102 and $100 respectively for Verlander and Felix. Well, that team failed because it had no hitters and Verlander didn't live up to his contract, so maybe the league adjusted to realize not to overspend on aces? Last year, the same two pitchers were again the top two available, and both Felix and Verlander went for $69 instead of over $100. So, my desire to keep Felix is based on my fear that things will revert back to overpaying the aces, because of our point system that favors them.

But maybe last year is the new normal? This year, the auction is deep in pitching in the 2nd and 3rd tier--Greinke, Lester, Shields, Gio, Kennedy, Sanchez, Weaver, are all out there. But we favor Ks over wins a good bit, so Scherzer stands out at the one true ace available. I guess if he does get bid up to 100, I could fall back and land Greinke or Lester. They would both go for $50 or so.

A deGrom type is generally where the value is in my league. Occasionally, there is a bidding war on a favorite sleeper like a Carrasco, that bids him up to something silly (last year it was Smyly getting bid up to $23), but for the most part that type of guy--deGrom, Hutch--goes for $10-15.

I guess my struggle is that I really don't know if Scherzer will go for $70 or $100. I really want a true ace. If I knew Scherzer was going to go for under $80, I'd jump on this deal. But maybe I should risk it and be okay with missing out on Scherzer if it comes to that, spending the $50 or so for a second tier "ace" and spending more on hitting as a back up plan?

[Gregg]

Seems to me based on the above that you should hang on to Felix. Let the others bid up Scherzer.

[DMT]

I guess my struggle is that I really don't know if Scherzer will go for $70 or $100. I really want a true ace. If I knew Scherzer was going to go for under $80, I'd jump on this deal. But maybe I should risk it and be okay with missing out on Scherzer if it comes to that, spending the $50 or so for a second tier "ace" and spending more on hitting as a back up plan?

I think there is too great of a chance for Scherzer to cost much more than Felix to do the deal.

[Sour Masher]

I think there is too great of a chance for Scherzer to cost much more than Felix to do the deal.

And I do want the true high K ace, but do any of those second tier pitches stand out enough to risk it? I mean, it isn't like there isn't other pitching in the auction. I could lose out on Scherzer and still get Lester or Greinke or Shields, etc. They would all be cheaper than Felix for sure. So, another way to look at this is, is Felix and an end game $1 speculative SP better than Greinke or Lester and Carrasco or DeGrom?

Also, El D prefers Carrasco to DeGrom. I suspect that is the consensus, but interestingly, despite the love fest for Carrasco, most projections seem to have DeGrom a tad bit ahead.

[DMT]

And I do want the true high K ace, but do any of those second tier pitches stand out enough to risk it? I mean, it isn't like there isn't other pitching in the auction. I could lose out on Scherzer and still get Lester or Greinke or Shields, etc. They would all be cheaper than Felix for sure. So, another way to look at this is, is Felix and an end game $1 speculative SP better than Greinke or Lester and Carrasco or DeGrom?

Also, El D prefers Carrasco to DeGrom. I suspect that is the consensus, but interestingly, despite the love fest for Carrasco, most projections seem to have DeGrom a tad bit ahead.

It depends on who the $1 end-gamer would be, but yea if those are the two options you're deciding between, I'd agree that Greinke or Lester and Carrasco are better. Here's the thing though, what if Scherzer does get bid up to $100? Do you really think the guys who bid over $90 for him but lost out aren't going to push Greinke and Lester up to around $70?

[Sour Masher]

I, too, like the "rotation anchor" strategy but I'd ignore it for the time being. There are adequate replacements in the next tier. It appears like your league goes nuts for the top tier starters and I think you should zig when others are zagging --- nab a cheap Carrasco or DeGrom and use the rest of your $70 to nab perhaps even two guys from the next tier. My answer to your question would be no --- Felix plus a $1 end-gamer is not better than Greinke or Lester plus Carrasco or DeGrom. Not only that but I bet the Felix side is more expensive.

You are right about Greinke/Lester and Carrasco or DeGrom being cheaper. The big reason this league goes bonkers for the top tier aces is the Ks thing in my league. We lowered wins down a lot and upped Ks. The net movement points wise wasn't really all that huge, but it has done wonders to normalize the elites. Now that they are not so dependent on whimsical win totals, you really know what you are getting with a guy like Kershaw or Felix or Scherzer, barring a big regression.

The DeGrom owner is eager for a deal. The Carrasco owner is iffy, so if I want him, I better pounce soon..

[Sour Masher]

It depends on who the $1 end-gamer would be, but yea if those are the two options you're deciding between, I'd agree that Greinke or Lester and Carrasco are better. Here's the thing though, what if Scherzer does get bid up to $100? Do you really think the guys who bid over $90 for him but lost out aren't going to push Greinke and Lester up to around $70?

No, you are right, one of those 2nd tier guys will get bid up as the must have plan B for someone, but not all of them will. If I am not myopic with who my plan B has to be, I am sure I'll get some at a fair price. If not Greinke or Lester, than certainly Gio or Shields, or Kennedy or Sanchez, or I take a risk and land Cliff Lee, or shudder at the thought, Verlander. Now that I type out those latter names, it makes me want to keep Felix again. Big question marks in that 3rd group, but probably big value too if one hits.

[DMT]

No, you are right, one of those 2nd tier guys will get bid up as the must have plan B for someone, but not all of them will. If I am not myopic with who my plan B has to be, I am sure I'll get some at a fair price. If not Greinke or Lester, than certainly Gio or Shields, or Kennedy or Sanchez, or I take a risk and land Cliff Lee, or shudder at the thought, Verlander. Now that I type out those latter names, it makes me want to keep Felix again. Big question marks in that 3rd group, but probably big value too if one hits.

Right, if there are only a few options, they will surely be bid up. I generally eschew paying top dollar for pitchers myself--hadn't paid even $20 for a pitcher in three years--and I decided to keep Felix this year at $36 in my 12-team mixed ($260 cap) because Scherzer is the only top SP available and there will be at least two teams desperate to land him. And I disagree with what seems to be the conventional wisdom that the overall shift towards dominant pitching makes them less valuable. Since everyone's pitching is going to be better, I believe that the top starters become even more valuable because of their reliability, and Felix is as reliable as they come. Coincidentally I also have Carrasco at $5.

[Gregg]

And I do want the true high K ace, but do any of those second tier pitches stand out enough to risk it? I mean, it isn't like there isn't other pitching in the auction. I could lose out on Scherzer and still get Lester or Greinke or Shields, etc. They would all be cheaper than Felix for sure. So, another way to look at this is, is Felix and an end game $1 speculative SP better than Greinke or Lester and Carrasco or DeGrom?

Also, El D prefers Carrasco to DeGrom. I suspect that is the consensus, but interestingly, despite the love fest for Carrasco, most projections seem to have DeGrom a tad bit ahead.

Yeah, but we really are not talking about an end game $1 player to add to Felix. We are a talking about the price of a $5 replacement plus the potential difference between what Scherzer goes for and the cost of Felix. If Scherzer goes for $75 that is 6 bucks added to the $5 replacement. So rather than a $1 pitcher to add to Felix you are really able to afford an $11 pitcher.

So it is Felix plus what you can get for 11 bucks vs. Carrasco/DeGrom and Scherzer. Given the high value of K's I am keeping Felix and bidding an $11 pitcher rather than getting into a bidding war for Scherzer.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, but we really are not talking about an end game $1 player to add to Felix. We are a talking about the price of a $5 replacement plus the potential difference between what Scherzer goes for and the cost of Felix. If Scherzer goes for $75 that is 6 bucks added to the $5 replacement. So rather than a $1 pitcher to add to Felix you are really able to afford an $11 pitcher.

So it is Felix plus what you can get for 11 bucks vs. Carrasco/DeGrom and Scherzer. Given the high value of K's I am keeping Felix and bidding an $11 pitcher rather than getting into a bidding war for Scherzer.

Yes, that is the math if the feeling is I have to land Scherzer to justify trading Felix. Scherzer's price uncertainty is an X factor. And this discussion and further thought lead me to believe I should definitely keep Felix if my mind set is that I have to have Scherzer if I trade Felix. I would be shocked if Scherzer goes for under $70. More likely, he goes for over $80.

However, the math is different if the feeling is I can lose out on Felix and Scherzer and just go with one or more of the lesser guys like Lester/Greinke on down, to go with Carrasco or DeGrom, and come out ahead by doing so. I am certain, based on past prices for 2nd tier arms, that I can land at least one of Lester or Greinke for under $65. So, the combined cost of Greinke or Lester and Carrasco or DeGrom would be $70 or under, which is the cost of Felix and a $1 pitcher.

[The Dane]

And I disagree with what seems to be the conventional wisdom that the overall shift towards dominant pitching makes them less valuable. Since everyone's pitching is going to be better, I believe that the top starters become even more valuable because of their reliability, and Felix is as reliable as they come. Coincidentally I also have Carrasco at $5.

I really hear what you are saying, but the breadth of good pitching has perhaps lessened the efficacy of the very-popular Ace+cheapies staff construction. This is all guesswork at this point, until we see what our auctions look like, but pitching is better and so that means that some owners, smartly or not, WILL pay more for those stats. If their model tells them that so-and-so pitcher could earn $13 and they get him for $10 (even though some owners, like me and you, likely would never go past $4 for him) they'll see it as a win, and it certainly isn't a loss, but those extra dollars have to come from somewhere. Will this mean that fewer dollars will be spent on hitters? Maybe. Top-flight pitchers? Possibly. I don't really know. Maybe many owners will go for Two Aces+cheapies, or eschew the ace altogether and just have a whole staff of mid-level guys. The pricing of pitching will change this season, I can feel it. I'm just not sure where the exploitable market inefficiencies will be.

And... I'm also a Carrasco owner, for $2, in the RJEL... and he's available.

[The Dane]

I've been thinking a bunch about this, too. I think there is excess value at the bottom ranks but the eye-popping stats from the elite guys will press their prices much higher. Therefore, I was thinking that targeting the middle and lower tiers would bring about the most value in the long run.

What do you think?

I am thinking this as well, but I'm also caught in this dilemma: It is what I WANT to happen, because the late-game is often my strongest part of the draft. So, I have to guard against my own confirmation bias. I'm doubting myself. You and I have similar drafting predilections and so you are probably going through the same mental reimagining over and over.

What I am sure of is that it will take more good pitching (regardless of what it costs) to have a top-three pitching staff. That said, closers are still volatile, and middle relievers are still inconsistent from year to year, so we are really talking about starters. So, our 1-5 or 1-6 starting staff will have to be of a better overall quality than in had to be in the past. Will that come with having an ace and an improved mid- and bottom-tier, or will we need two aces? I'm not sure. Mixed leagues only have to consider the league-wide changes, but NLs could see massive changes... or no changes at all. Maybe the regular owner (not the people on here, by and large) just goes on with business as usual.

Honestly, I am extremely excited for my drafts this year. These are fun changes and the owners who see what's coming better than anyone else, will be the ones who have more fun this season.