Draft/Auction preparation.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Okay, so I have been involved in rotisserie/fantasy baseball since 1991 when Byron and the rest of us started Boxscore Hungry Freaks or what some people refer to as the RD staff league. Over the next 25 years I participated in probably 100+ leagues and for the most part have been very successful. Competitive at the very least.

However, I have never been one to spend weeks in preparation before draft day. I use one set of projections every year and one program to track rosters on draft day.

The only time I refer to anything else is during the reserves draft for minor league players.

I guess my question is, how much do all these projections, mock drafts, add and the like really help you.

I'm notdiminishing their worth, it's just that I would like to know what is the difference they make in your success.

[Lucky]

For someone with your experience, I don't think they help. Every auction is different, so you have to adapt to changes in the room as you go.

I do very few drafts. The past few years, I have played in one of the drafts with guys who have blogs for the different networks, magazines, sites, etc. Since that is my only experience, that is the only time I mock draft. Plus, it is national league, and I don't know those players as well.

As for values, people get hung up one whether someone should be $26 or $28. There's no difference, because no set of projections can ever be that precise. The best you can do is put players into tiers, and decide who you like best in those tiers.

So, for less-experienced players, projections can help value players, and mock auctions/drafts can help you be smoother on the big day. But for vets like you, I think they would not be the best use of your time.

[TranaGreg]

for the most part I agree with Lucky - the one area they do help me is with valuing guys that I don't know a lot about. I am typically an AL guy so know less about NL guys ... I've overlooked a few young guys in the past & seeing them come up early in mocks helps draw my attention to them. The other element with setting up & reviewing my worksheets is simply becoming so familiar with them that when a guy's name is called at auction I usually don't need to check to see what positions he's eligible at, or his valuation - I already know.

[swampdragon]

I think that it would be fun to do an auction where each team is given a legal pad, some pencils and a list of unranked players in MLB - like a yahoo list or similar
and then just start the auction

[Lucky]

I think that it would be fun to do an auction where each team is given a legal pad, some pencils and a list of unranked players in MLB - like a yahoo list or similar
and then just start the auction

That does sound like great fun, although it would be a lot more difficult now than when I was a youngster.

[Gregg]

One of the things that I like about projections, mock drafts, etc is to gauge what is the popular flavor of the year. This helps me to know what to expect at the auction. I find this more helpful with mid to low tier players.

[Lucky]

One of the things that I like about projections, mock drafts, etc is to gauge what is the popular flavor of the year. This helps me to know what to expect at the auction. I find this more helpful with mid to low tier players.

How do you find that information to be the most useful?

[Gregg]

How do you find that information to be the most useful?

Well for starters I sometimes think I have found a sleeper that I can target for dollar days only to find out that people are very aware of the player and it will cost me more. In the past I have been surprised by this and either lost out on a player or paid too much.

Last year in my NL only I made this mistake with Jordy Mercer (paid too much).

While this is not a mid tier player, I like Heyward way too much this year. In our NL only league I almost traded for him. He is not a keeper at his price and should be back in the auction. It was seeing where he went in some drafts that stopped me from making the offer.

[chancellor]

I find the value of my prep work to give me better ideas, as Gregg noted, who I might have over/under valued, but most importantly, just to drill values into my head so I can respond pretty quickly to trends I see at the auction.

[Pogues]

I don't know how much more it helps, but I find running numbers strangely meditative. Last year it seemed to help a ton, as I had a pretty good season.

[The Dane]

GitH, we have similar levels of experience, but I use more than one set of projections. I read whatever I can get my hands on. I find ADP extremely helpful (even though I only do auctions), especially in leagues where I don't know many of the owners personally; it does a great job of showing me which direction the wind of sentiment may be blowing for a particular player. If I see a player I like going much later than I expect, I know that's someone to target. If someone I don't like is going much earlier, I know he's someone I'm tossing. ADP is no substitute for good projections, but it is a nice glimpse into what may well happen at your draft. THAT is good information. Again, I don't use it much in the leagues where I know everyone and what they tend to do, but it's handy in others.

One thing I may do differently is how we use projections. I tend to use them only as conflict to my own assessment (or knowledge about a player for whom I have no assessment, which isn't (m)any in an NL only). For example, say I think Jake Arrieta's surge last year was a fluke, but I read a source that says he's a new ace-level pitcher. If it's a source I respect, I note it. If I hear this same message a few more times, I may change my mind about Arrieta, at which point I can erase whatever notes I took, because my mind is changed. I do this with everything I read and hear. I go into the draft with a list of available players in rough order of what I believe they'll go for in the draft. I'm lucky in that I have a pretty good memory for these things, so once I type a note by their names, I usually don't need to print that note. I spend the whole draft looking around the room at the other owners and not very much looking at my lists, as it is my goal to not really need them.

[SlideRule]

My prep (and philosophy) for my primary league - a long-standing 10-team AL only - nearly exactly matches that of ElD's as described above. Preparation => endgame acumen and familiarity. Tiers, not exact values. Targets and "avoids."

[Lucky]

The approach described in the last two posts is how I was able, for many years, to go into with nothing but a single, letter-sized piece of paper. I'd like to go back to that, instead of being dependent on a computer to keep up with everything.