Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
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Baseball Prospectus Annual 2015 - a quick review
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"Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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Originally posted by bryanbutler View Postare you using something more than is in the normal databases (like what is in sean lahman's)? like every pitch from pitchf/x or something? if not, then you don't need a data warehouse and SQL - pulling an individual player's stats out of a simple csv text file takes a few seconds - the files are only a few MB. doing the regression is straightforward and should be fast. i'm still not seeing the difficulty. yes, a month or two, to dot the i's and cross the t's, but i would think BP would be willing to invest that in order to improve the quality of their product..."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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I'm not suggesting that developing a modern projection system is a gargantuan intellectual exercise. A number of people have done it. It is what one of my old professors called "straightforward but non-trivial." The devil is in the details. Though many people have done it, they have pretty much all done it over the course of a year or more, and there is good reason for that. Then once the first revision is complete you are constantly going back to address the simplifying assumptions and leaps of logic that you made to get there. A projection system is always a living document (or code base, if you will).
No, it doesn't take months to run the code once it's written. That takes hours. But testing and revising the code--eliminating bugs, adding features, improving underlying assumptions--is what takes time."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostIt's not because Silver was some genius and the people who followed him are ignoramuses.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
No, it doesn't take months to run the code once it's written. That takes hours. But testing and revising the code--eliminating bugs, adding features, improving underlying assumptions--is what takes time.
i fully agree that the devil is in the details and you'll always be tweaking. again, i was just flabbergasted by what seemed an incredible inefficiency in actually running PECOTA. it seems what you meant is that they are tweaking the algorithm during that period. apologies for misunderstanding what you were saying.
ETA: but i still don't think it's that complex ."Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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Originally posted by bryanbutler View PostETA: but i still don't think it's that complex .
in practice, it's the modifiers that make the difference (those devilish details), along with the estimate of the PA (for those with any uncertainty about it). those are the details that mike (and others) tweak to get right, that those of us sitting on the sidelines probably aren't capable of. if we were, we'd be doing it, after all.
so, again, apologies mike - i didn't mean to make light of the effort you and others put into getting projections as good as you can."Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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