NL-only Starting Pitcher Depth: what to do?

[james33]

With Scherzer, Lester, Shields joining Kershaw, MadBum, Strasburg, Cueto, Greinke, Wainwright, Hamels, Zimmerman, it seems deeper than I've ever seen.

I count 28 good SP, maybe 30 if you count 2 of (Bailey/Liriano/Cain).

Any guesses on how this will play out at auction? Wait a bit on SP, let everyone else bid up the first few aces is my thought.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Is it a keeper league or redraft

[james33]

Is it a keeper league or redraft

I'm in two NL-only keeper leagues, no redraft leagues. One league had a bunch of expiring ace contracts (Strasburg / Cueto / Wainwright / Kershaw / Greinke / Zimmerman) who are available at auction, in addition to the last year AL guys, so starting pitching looks like a redraft (re-auction) league. The other league has more kept aces, but I'm guessing at least half the owners are feeling good about their keeper aces already and so probably are planning to spend the most money on a hitter.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'm agreeing with Chris. Wait through the biggest names and get a guy like grienke. Unless one of the big guys is going undervalue

[Gregg]

I have a theory that the first or second throw goes a few dollars cheaper than normal (whatever normal is). If the ace that you want comes out in the first two picks I would probably grab them.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I have a theory that the first or second throw goes a few dollars cheaper than normal (whatever normal is). If the ace that you want comes out in the first two picks I would probably grab them.

Ill keep that in mind when we do our auction!!

[The Dane]

That's what I'd do. I'd wait out the first couple (unless it's someone you really, really want) and strike later on. Throw out guys you don't want with your first couple throws. Maybe ID a couple second tier guys like Greinke and Shields to land hopefully at a discount a little ways into the auction.

This is certainly a viable strategy, and one I may consider myself, if I find I am in that situation. However, I think enough top-tier arms moved in to actually change the paradigm. Perhaps, as was the case in the past, a second-tier arm like Greinke is not enough to anchor a competitive pitching staff. If your best pitcher is the 15th best pitcher (and it's a 12-team NL), you are really going to need to fill the rest of your staff in with above-average starters, which will cost. For example, if you pay $40 for Kershaw, you can save and take a few $1-$5 starters late and still compete. Maybe, if you get Greinke for $30 (which feels like a bargain after the $40 Kershaw), you may not have the same luxury and will have to pay for $10-$12 mid-tier starters to field a competitive staff. What you save on Greinke, you lose on the back end.

Just a thought. I still haven't figured out how all these great starters are going to change things. In one league, I have a $28 Kershaw (last year's draft was right after his injury and I got him on the cheap; Greinke went for $35), so I KNOW I'm going to budget in another top starter and I'll grab him early.

[The Dane]

Interesting food for thought.

My thinking was something like this - perhaps Kershaw goes for $45 in an NL only. The other top tier guys will go for $40-ish (just making numbers up, obviously). The second tier guys might go for $25. So you can land two of them for only $5 more than one Kershaw. Not sure if my math works out or is realistic, but I think that if you call out a few elite guys early you have successfully eliminated some competition for your second tier guys, particularly if the early buyers think the way you are: namely, that since they have a Kershaw in tow they can wait until close to the end game to fill their staff with $5 mediocrities or speculative plays.

Solid planning, no doubt. I think Kershaw's price takes a small hit, maybe a buck or two. I think, when pushed to top-dollar $45 (or whatever), more owners will fold thinking there are more options. Also, because new arrivals always get a little price bump (remember when all those suckers paid $20+ for Cahill?) a few of Kershaw's dollars could get sprinkled in there on those guys. I don't think most people will change their budgets to compensate, so we'll see much cheaper plays in the mid to low tiers. Usually, grabbing aces is a game of musical chairs, but not this year. There are enough to go around, and then some. This will make people think differently.

[james33]

Great discussion, guys.

Group A) Super-Aces: Kershaw/MadBum/Strasburg/Scherzer (tho Kershaw really on his own tier)

Group B) Still-Legit #1 SP on an NL-only Staff (The Dane used Greinke as an example here). Established, have pitched well more than one year: Cueto-Greinke-Wainwright-Lester-Hamels-Zimmerman

Group C) Nearly 20 more SP in this group - mostly young but I'd include Cliff Lee here. 4 Padres. 3 Mets. So many choices.

I'm hoping there's a chance that someone in group A (but not Kershaw) goes for a Group B price. Seems like someone from Group C will go for a low price somehow.

[The Dane]

Great discussion, guys.
I'm hoping there's a chance that someone in group A (but not Kershaw) goes for a Group B price. Seems like someone from Group C will go for a low price somehow.

I think Strasburg would be your best bet, but for him to go for less than a Group B guy is silly. Kershaw is top dollar. MadBum is coming off that postseason impossibility, and Scherzer has that New Ace smell to NLers. None of those guys are bargains, in my opinion. I think it's more likely some Group B guys go for Group A money.

Where do you put Shields? I think possibly Teheran could go in Group B.

[NL Only]

I've had past success with a duo anchor of cheaper ace-like or ace-light SPs in NL Only. Undervalued, pre break-out, injury risk or post-injury types. I tried not to spend more than $35 for both.
This year I hope everyone spends on an ace...but I expect some Group B & C will go cheaper because most will recognize the need to spend maybe even more than the typical $180 or so (out of $260) to lock up scarce offense. But then someone will gobble up some of the relative pitching deals, even at higher prices, expecting to trade and/or do well with some cheap position players.
All of this makes me think that Stars and Scrubs will be popular this year.

[Gregg]

Great discussion, guys.

Group A) Super-Aces: Kershaw/MadBum/Strasburg/Scherzer (tho Kershaw really on his own tier)

Group B) Still-Legit #1 SP on an NL-only Staff (The Dane used Greinke as an example here). Established, have pitched well more than one year: Cueto-Greinke-Wainwright-Lester-Hamels-Zimmerman

Group C) Nearly 20 more SP in this group - mostly young but I'd include Cliff Lee here. 4 Padres. 3 Mets. So many choices.

I'm hoping there's a chance that someone in group A (but not Kershaw) goes for a Group B price. Seems like someone from Group C will go for a low price somehow.

I don't think there is any chance of that happening. Before the influx of talent into the NL I traded my $22 Revere for a $40 Kershaw. The owner also had a $20 Cueto. I did this because if I am going to overpay, I want to overpay for the best. Greinke, Cueto, Kershaw, Stasburg Wainwright, Teheran, Ross, Hamels, Zimmerman will all be kept.

I expect Scherzer to go $35 plus, MadBum $32 plus, Lester $30. Given the money and need that are in this auction. It would not surprise me to see Scherzer hit $40, MadBum high 30's and Lester mid 30's.

At this I only need 1 or two pitchers. I have spent $86 on 8 pitchers That may drop to $79 depending on the starter status of Gee (probably drops anyway). I have $74 bucks left for offense. I like to trade and the auction is only one part of this game. At what price do you think I would jump in for these 3 to fill in between my $40 Kershaw and $10 Ross?

[The Dane]

I hear you, Gregg, however I must ask: Where is all this extra money spent on top starters going to come from? (I don't really know, myself, that's why I ask.) My quick look says that there is possibly $120 more quality pitching in the NL this year. In a standard NL league, that's $10 per team, which is a good deal of budget. Where are 12 owners going to scrounge up $10 each? If owners don't really change their budgets, then it will come from the middle and lower tiers of pitching and the Group C guys will go for considerably less than they should ($5 Cliff Lee anyone?) or all of the prices for top starters will be a little bit less than they would normally be and a $35 Scherzer goes for $32, a $32 MadBum for $30, etc. If owners adjust to pay more for pitching, then we'll see hitters take the hit. The extra money HAS to come from somewhere.

I think what most people are going to fail to realize is that a pitching staff that finished 3rd-best in an NL only in 2014, will likely finish 6th or 7th. Simply put, pitching is better in the NL and -more importantly- OBVIOUSLY better. None of these guys who came over, Lester, Shields, Scherzer, are flying under the radar; they are going to draw big money off the table. So, there will be a dramatic market inefficiency somewhere, and the people who figure that out will stand to win a lot of leagues this year.

[Gregg]

I hear you, Gregg, however I must ask: Where is all this extra money spent on top starters going to come from? (I don't really know, myself, that's why I ask.) My quick look says that there is possibly $120 more quality pitching in the NL this year. In a standard NL league, that's $10 per team, which is a good deal of budget. Where are 12 owners going to scrounge up $10 each? If owners don't really change their budgets, then it will come from the middle and lower tiers of pitching and the Group C guys will go for considerably less than they should ($5 Cliff Lee anyone?) or all of the prices for top starters will be a little bit less than they would normally be and a $35 Scherzer goes for $32, a $32 MadBum for $30, etc. If owners adjust to pay more for pitching, then we'll see hitters take the hit. The extra money HAS to come from somewhere.

I think what most people are going to fail to realize is that a pitching staff that finished 3rd-best in an NL only in 2014, will likely finish 6th or 7th. Simply put, pitching is better in the NL and -more importantly- OBVIOUSLY better. None of these guys who came over, Lester, Shields, Scherzer, are flying under the radar; they are going to draw big money off the table. So, there will be a dramatic market inefficiency somewhere, and the people who figure that out will stand to win a lot of leagues this year.

Great question on the money.

In our NL only keeper we had a bunch of our cheap rookie status guys come into their own. This caused some serious bidding on the stars that were available in the auction. I suspect that many of them will be put back into the auction with the hope of getting them back cheaper or at the minimum of a new contract. This should allow some of the money to go to the extra pitching that is coming back in.

I suspect that $40 Kemp, $43 Bruce, $40 Tulo, $39 Heyward, $38 Lee, $27 Cain, $45 McCutchen, $19 Reed, (these are just off the top of my head) will be back in. It will also affect the many mid teens players that should go for 7-10 bucks. Probably not quite enough to totally offset the pitching, but make a dent.

I haven't done a deep evaluation of the opposing rosters yet. We also don't turn in our final rosters until a week before the auction so many things will change. I do agree that there has to be pockets of true value for the astute auction player. I can only hope to get my share.

This sight is one of the very good tools to help me find those nuggets.