Where in the pile is Carlos Carrasco?

[onejayhawk]

Musing on toolsy SP.

My 2014 invested heavily in Jean Segura and Jose Fernandez. Ouch. To replace Segura I found Danny Santana. To partly replace Fern I found Carrasco. He always had stuff, but never put it together. I think he was largely undrafted last season.

Lance Lynn and Zack Wheeler have teased with shutdown stretches, but are irritatingly inconsistent. Still, no one would be shocked if they put up a sub 3.50 ERA and 200 K. Looking deeper in, who might approach that, but cheaply? Just some names: Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, JA Happ.

J

[joncarlos]

I love Carrasco this year. I can easily see top 15 numbers.

Smyly is a good one. Can't see Happ getting anywhere near 200 Ks but he'll be usable in Safeco. I'm a big Drew Hutchinson fan. I think Stroman is another guy who could give you ace numbers for a pretty low cost. Nothing but a gut feel says the lightbulb finally comes on for Shelby Miller in ATL.

[onejayhawk]

I love that Smyly finally has a defense behind him. I considered Hutchinson. Why wouldn't Happ get the Ks if he gets the IP? Strikeouts is all he does.

J

[joncarlos]

I love that Smyly finally has a defense behind him. I considered Hutchinson. Why wouldn't Happ get the Ks if he gets the IP? Strikeouts is all he does.

J

7.58 K/9 last year and 7.48 K/9 in 2013. To get to 200 Ks that is roughly 230 IP. There are 2 things Happ doesn't do to get to 230 innings - stay healthy enough or pitch deep enough into games. You might even argue that he doesn't pitch high enough in the rotation - maybe only a team's 1 or 2 really has a shot at that many starts.

I think he'll be fine in Safeco but a big value season for me is 185 IP, maybe a 3.50 ERA and his usual 7.5 K9.