Much A-Do About Moncada

[Sharky]

The Mets are cash poor or at least they act like it. It's pretty comical that they gave up their 1st round pick to sign Cuddyer and then didn't sign another QO player.

It's not comical. It's ;&@king annoying!!! So stupid. Look what the White Sox did (Robertson AND Melky). That's the way you do it (play the guitar on the mtv).

So frustrating as a fan.

[mgwiz22]

Do any of you really want your team to land Moncada? His price tag is so enormous (in terms of penalties....who cares about the $, amirite?) that I just can't get over the enormous risk he poses. You have to assume that he'll not only be worth the equivalent of $80 million or whatever, but also worth more than all the other players you'd otherwise be able to sign but cannot due to penalties.

I dunno, that's a hell of a lot of optimism for a 19 year old. You get A-Rod, obviously it's worth it. You get Delmon Young or Matt Bush....wow, you really screwed your franchise.

Yes I would like to see the Marlins sign him. They won't of course but for them it would only cost them the money they would have to pay. There wouldn't miss out on signing anyone for the next two years since they won't do it anyway.

[joncarlos]

Do any of you really want your team to land Moncada? His price tag is so enormous (in terms of penalties....who cares about the $, amirite?) that I just can't get over the enormous risk he poses. You have to assume that he'll not only be worth the equivalent of $80 million or whatever, but also worth more than all the other players you'd otherwise be able to sign but cannot due to penalties.

I dunno, that's a hell of a lot of optimism for a 19 year old. You get A-Rod, obviously it's worth it. You get Delmon Young or Matt Bush....wow, you really screwed your franchise.

Hell yes, I do. Don't you? It's only money. The Yankees have a ton of it and MLB keeps limiting the places they can spend it. If there was some clerical error and Addison Russell was declared a free agent, wouldn't you want your team to sign him? I don't see Moncada as significantly less risky than an American minor leaguer. This isn't 16-year old Nomar Mazara. He's faced relatively professional-level pitching.

[willthethrill]

But I think that where your team is not good at, or doesn't much participate in, the international pool, you're not losing so much of that opportunity cost.

The Phillies had a gaping hole in that area only up until very recently, so it would have made sense for them to jump in with both feet. Now? I'm not so sure but would not at all mind if they did.

[joncarlos]

I don't think this is the proper way to analyze the situation. Yes, the initial outlay is just money. If that's all it was, I'd want the Dodgers to bid $297 billion and be done with it.

Unfortunately, there is also opportunity cost at stake. Yoan Moncada is subject to the international signing guidelines. That pool of money is not unlimited. Signing Moncada, like I mentioned previously, would essentially mean that not only would the team absorb a massive cost in penalties (meh, who cares, kinda) they would also be prohibited from signing any international player for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods. That's a really big consideration, imo. Sure, he'll cost a bazillion dollars ($80-ish million when all's said and done, probably) but he also eliminates whatever team signs him from signing high caliber international prospects for the next two years. That's huge.

Unless another Moncanda comes along, I don't see it as a huge loss. Especially for the Yankees. They just loaded up on all the 16 year olds. (http://sbb.scout.com/story/1417487) and they are already going to be banned from the 300k+ international market, Mondaca or no Moncada. Those guys don't have a huge hit rate anyway and spending a ton of money doesn't guarantee success. Robbie Cano and Mariano Rivera were both signed for well under 300k.

The "fine" that teams pay will be going to the Commissioner's office and may be used to help institute an International Draft, which would presumably be free from any of these penalties. Will that happen in less than 2 years? Probably not.

The biggest risk is that all this normalization with Cuba will result in more <23 year olds coming out before the rules are changed. Admittedly it's a real risk but I don't think any of those kids are on Moncada's level.

[Kevin Seitzer]

The "fine" that teams pay will be going to the Commissioner's office and may be used to help institute an International Draft, which would presumably be free from any of these penalties.

If a draft is instituted, a penalty will still apply. Instead of being prohibited from signing >$300k players in the following two signing periods, the team will forfeit its first round pick in each of the next two drafts.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I don't think this is the proper way to analyze the situation. Yes, the initial outlay is just money. If that's all it was, I'd want the Dodgers to bid $297 billion and be done with it.

Unfortunately, there is also opportunity cost at stake. Yoan Moncada is subject to the international signing guidelines. That pool of money is not unlimited. Signing Moncada, like I mentioned previously, would essentially mean that not only would the team absorb a massive cost in penalties (meh, who cares, kinda) they would also be prohibited from signing any international player for more than $300,000 for the next two signing periods. That's a really big consideration, imo. Sure, he'll cost a bazillion dollars ($80-ish million when all's said and done, probably) but he also eliminates whatever team signs him from signing high caliber international prospects for the next two years. That's huge.

There are a number of teams that are blowing through their pools and suffering the penalties. The Cubs and Rangers already did it, and there are a handful of other teams that have lined up to do it this signing period. You can argue whether it makes sense for any given team or not, but it's clearly not a completely insane strategy when a third of the league is doing it.

[chancellor]

Unfortunately, there is also opportunity cost at stake. Yoan Moncada is subject to the international signing guidelines. That pool of money is unlimited.

Opportunity cost? I love it when you start talking like a Koch brother.

[joncarlos]

If a draft is instituted, a penalty will still apply. Instead of being prohibited from signing >$300k players in the following two signing periods, the team will forfeit its first round pick in each of the next two drafts.

Interesting. Let's hope the Yankees remain good and that's a bottom of the round pick then

[rhd]

If a draft is instituted, a penalty will still apply. Instead of being prohibited from signing >$300k players in the following two signing periods, the team will forfeit its first round pick in each of the next two drafts.

Yeah, but that wouldnt be retroactive, would it? For the team that signs Moncada, they would have the $300K restriction for the next 2 int'l signing periods, which would be 2015 and 2016. We already know the players in the 2015 class so the team would know who they're losing out on. The next CBA will be after the 2016 season. So they'd lose out on the top players in the 2016 signing period also. Teams probably have a good feel for who the top players will be then also, so unless another Cuban young stud becomes available before then (Lourdes Gourriel, Victor Mesa, Jr, Guillermo Aviles, Norge Ruiz) teams may not miss out on anyone significant that they know about. Assuming the int'l draft is instituted in the 2016 offseason, any team exceeding the $300k limit between 7/2/2016 and the new CBA effectively wont lose much of anything unless they lose their 1st round draft picks retroactively. The effective penalty wouldnt happen until after the 1st int'l draft, which I assume would be sometime during the 2017 season. This really needs to be clarified now before teams sign more of these players for over the $300K limit. Otherwise, if the penalty is made retroactive, these teams will be pretty mad.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Yeah, but that wouldnt be retroactive, would it? For the team that signs Moncada, they would have the $300K restriction for the next 2 int'l signing periods, which would be 2015 and 2016. We already know the players in the 2015 class so the team would know who they're losing out on. The next CBA will be after the 2016 season. So they'd lose out on the top players in the 2016 signing period also. Teams probably have a good feel for who the top players will be then also, so unless another Cuban young stud becomes available before then (Lourdes Gourriel, Victor Mesa, Jr, Guillermo Aviles, Norge Ruiz) teams may not miss out on anyone significant that they know about. Assuming the int'l draft is instituted in the 2016 offseason, any team exceeding the $300k limit between 7/2/2016 and the new CBA effectively wont lose much of anything unless they lose their 1st round draft picks retroactively. The effective penalty wouldnt happen until after the 1st int'l draft, which I assume would be sometime during the 2017 season. This really needs to be clarified now before teams sign more of these players for over the $300K limit. Otherwise, if the penalty is made retroactive, these teams will be pretty mad.

The penalties aren't retroactive, but I think maybe you are confused about the timeline. Or something else...because the penalties are very clearly spelled out in the CBA. And it's highly unlikely that the teams are just going to luck out because the next CBA is just going to do away with the penalties. Talk about teams being mad--that would do it!

If a team goes past its pool limit in the current signing period (a.k.a. the 2014-15 period or the July 2, 2014 - June 15, 2015 period), they would suffer the following penalties:

(1) if there is no draft instituted
2015-16 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k
2016-17 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k

(2) if there is a draft instituted for the 2015-16 period
2015-16 period, loss of first round pick
2016-17 period, loss of first round pick

(3) if there is a draft instituted for the 2016-17 period
2015-16 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k
2016-17 period, loss of first round pick

If the draft comes with the start of the new CBA, the draft would cover the 2017-18 signing period.

[Hornsby]

Interesting. Let's hope the Yankees remain good and that's a bottom of the round pick then

What's this "remain good" that you refer to when discussing the Yankees?

[rhd]

The penalties aren't retroactive, but I think maybe you are confused about the timeline. Or something else...because the penalties are very clearly spelled out in the CBA. And it's highly unlikely that the teams are just going to luck out because the next CBA is just going to do away with the penalties. Talk about teams being mad--that would do it!

If a team goes past its pool limit in the current signing period (a.k.a. the 2014-15 period or the July 2, 2014 - June 15, 2015 period), they would suffer the following penalties:

(1) if there is no draft instituted
2015-16 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k
2016-17 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k

(2) if there is a draft instituted for the 2015-16 period
2015-16 period, loss of first round pick
2016-17 period, loss of first round pick

(3) if there is a draft instituted for the 2016-17 period
2015-16 period, can't sign anyone for more than $300k
2016-17 period, loss of first round pick

If the draft comes with the start of the new CBA, the draft would cover the 2017-18 signing period.

I cant see the int'l draft happenning before the new CBA because this strikes me as something that would need to be collectively bargained.

What would make sense would be not having the 1st draft until the 7/2/2019 signing start date, which would be the 7/2019-6/2020 signing period. Then:
- If team signs FA int'l player during 7/2015-6/2016 signing pd for > team pool amount, can't sign anyone for more than $300k until 7/2017-6/2018 signing pd
- If team signs FA int'l player during 7/2016-6/2017 signing pd for > team pool amount, can't sign anyone for more than $300k until 7/2018-6/2019 signing pd
- New CBA - circa Jan 2017 (now teams are on notice)
- If team signs FA int'l player during 7/2017-6/2018 signing pd for > team pool amount (what would these be after the new CBA?), can't sign anyone for more than $300k until 7/2019-6/2020 signing pd and loss of first round int'l pick for 2019 int'l draft.
- If team signs FA int'l player during 7/2018-6/2019 signing pd for > team pool amount (what would these be after the new CBA?), loss of first round int'l pick for 2019 and 2020 int'l drafts.
- 1st int'l draft - 2019 (how about holding it on 7/2 every year?)

And they'll have to have worked out what to do w Cuban players before the int'l draft is put in place.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I cant see the int'l draft happenning before the new CBA because this strikes me as something that would need to be collectively bargained.

I'm not suggesting it's likely to happen that way, but the current collective bargaining agreement established a process by which it could happen under the current CBA (attachment 46, Part I, which you can probably find somewhere online if you are interested).

[Kevin Seitzer]

team pool amount (what would these be after the new CBA?)

TBD, of course, but I imagine they would be similar to the current system, where each team has four bonus values, plus $700k, that make up its bonus pool. If the draft is four rounds long, those four bonus values probably become the slots for the draft picks.