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Baez is currently the #9 2B in ADP, going 115th on average overall. Personally, I think that's a little crazy. OK, a lot crazy.
I completely understand his potential, but at this point, that's all it is. In his 229 PA MLB audition last season, he hit .169 with a whopping 95 Ks (41.5%). He did hit 9 HRs and had 5 SBs, so if one wanted to simply prorate that out, he'd hit 20+ HRs with double digit SBs over the course of a full season. As far as I can tell, his 41.5% strikeout rate is the highest ever in a season for a player with 200+ PAs. Human windmills like Mark Reynolds, Rob Deer and Adam Dunn never came close to that lofty percentage.
And recent reports about his Puerto Rican winter ball stats are just as dire, as he's struck out 27 times in 52 PAs. Dayum.
He's being drafted over the likes of fellow 2B-men Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker etc. That's just crazy talk.
The positives are his minor league numbers, but until those even remotely translate to the MLB level, I'm hands off for 2015. If he performs better than the four 2B named above, fantastic, I'm glad you took the huge risk.
He's pretty hard to project for 2015, since it's very possible he doesn't get anything close to meaningful ABs. Steamer has him with 589 PAs and a 30% K/AB rate, which is very optimistic, IMO. It all depends on that K rate. If he's at 30%+, no way does he come close to sniffing 589 PAs. Given his ADP cost, he's a massive risk for 2015.
I completely understand his potential, but at this point, that's all it is. In his 229 PA MLB audition last season, he hit .169 with a whopping 95 Ks (41.5%). He did hit 9 HRs and had 5 SBs, so if one wanted to simply prorate that out, he'd hit 20+ HRs with double digit SBs over the course of a full season. As far as I can tell, his 41.5% strikeout rate is the highest ever in a season for a player with 200+ PAs. Human windmills like Mark Reynolds, Rob Deer and Adam Dunn never came close to that lofty percentage.
And recent reports about his Puerto Rican winter ball stats are just as dire, as he's struck out 27 times in 52 PAs. Dayum.
He's being drafted over the likes of fellow 2B-men Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker etc. That's just crazy talk.
The positives are his minor league numbers, but until those even remotely translate to the MLB level, I'm hands off for 2015. If he performs better than the four 2B named above, fantastic, I'm glad you took the huge risk.
He's pretty hard to project for 2015, since it's very possible he doesn't get anything close to meaningful ABs. Steamer has him with 589 PAs and a 30% K/AB rate, which is very optimistic, IMO. It all depends on that K rate. If he's at 30%+, no way does he come close to sniffing 589 PAs. Given his ADP cost, he's a massive risk for 2015.
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