Strategy question

[onejayhawk]

My 16 team league declares keepers soon. This is my current roster. (#) indicates the option round (when the player is drafted). We have a 4 round creep (64 picks) each season.

Current lineup:
1B Paul Goldschmidt K
2B Robinson Canó K
3B Adrián Béltre K
SS Danny Santana (15)
MI
CI
OF Kole Calhoun (9)
OF Andrew McCutchen K
OF Jayson Werth Traded
OF Christian Yelich (14)
Util
SP Carlos Carrasco (16)
SP José Fernández (12)
SP Matt Harvey (13)
SP Zack Wheeler (8)
RP Héctor Rondón (17)
RP
RP
P Drew Smyly (Acquired in trade)
P

BN Miguel Sano (11)
BN Byron Buxton (19)
BN Carlos Rodon (21)
BN Clint Frazier (24)
BN Raúl Mondesí (25)
BN Lucas Giolito (20)
BN Noah Syndergaard (10)

I have picks in rounds 5, 7, 18, 22, 23 and 26-29. I can get an excellent RP in round #7, so I expect round #5 to go to a bat. This league overdrafts SP.

For 16 teams, how do you like the chances?
Are there any trade high candidates?
Would you drop Rondon and two option years for J.P. Crawford and the same two years?
Thor and Sano have only one additional year. Are they worth keeping vs a mid 100s pick?

J

[mjl]

It seems really good, you have three first-round picks and the others are solid.

I would shop Santana and at least ask around on Fernandez and Harvey. They could both be on innings restrictions this year (and Fernandez isn't even back for the beginning of the season) but someone could value them as the superstars they might be next year if the surgeries went well, and with your team you probably don't have room to hope for both of those guys to work out just so you can be even better next year. In your situation I'd rather have Jordan Zimmermann plus something for one of those guys, and I think you might be able to swing that.

I would not cut Rondon.

I wouldn't keep Thor or Sano. I doubt either helps too much this year, and they'll cost you a 7th or 8th next year, so they have to hit pretty damn hard to be worth that. But again, you should probably try trading them first. If you can pick up a decent minor leaguer who'd cost your 23rd round pick or something like that, it's likely worth doing.

Note for all of the above, I don't totally understand how your keepers work. If you can keep the K players indefinitely, a lot of my talk about playing for this year is kind of moot, because your team is probably going to be very solid for the next few years at least, and swapping out Beltre for Fernandez means your keeper list doesn't get any weaker.

[onejayhawk]

You seem to grasp the basics pretty well. We have three unlimited keepers, with the option of a fourth. As a practical matter, 7th and 8th round picks are usually in the 130-150 range. Unfortunately, we will well past that point of the draft before the ST stats start piling up.

I probably have the best keepers in the league, but the mid round picks and option players really decide things. Last year's champ finished dead last in 2013, partly because he was piling option players and upgrading his base keepers. The year before I won, I traded Joey Votto, Pedrioa and someone for Trout (going into his rookie year), Cano and two others, then played Goldschmidt when he was hitting .215. Trout brought McCutchen, SP and a title.

I am leery of trading my only SS, especially when I can keep him cheaply two more years. Trading Thor or Sano is more possible.

J

[mjl]

You have to remember Santana had a .405 BABIP last year, and his totals were way better than he ever put up in the minors, and they have Jorge Polanco close to the majors. Not that Polanco's upside is better than what Santana did last year, but if Santana's BABIP comes down to earth he could be on the bench in a hurry.

[onejayhawk]

Point taken. Fangraphs projects him as .259/.301/.376 which will not play much. That said, he hit a LOT of line drives--almost as many as FB. BABIP will be high when you do that. Also he is an excellent bunter.

Still, it's a good caution. I seem to do SS de jour in this league. When it works, Jean Segura, it really works. When not, Jean Segura, really not.

J