early 2k15 keeper help solicited

[bryanbutler]

would love to get some early advice, to know who i should post as trade bait before the flurry starts.

this is my long-term (> 20 years now) main league.

depth is roughly similar to an NL- or AL-only, but we draw from both leagues.

13 hitters (2 C, 1 U), 10 pitchers.

offensive categories: OBA, XBA, SB-CS, R, RBI
pitching categories: W, SV-BS+Ho/2, K, ERA, WHIP

we can keep 10, but don't have to. there is a progressive salary cap for keepers, but i don't think it'll be an issue for me this year.

ones i'm either very sure or pretty sure i'll keep:

Player Salary Contract
Mike Trout 7 C?
Bryce Harper 7 C?
Eric Hosmer 11 C15
Mike Zunino 4 A
Homer Bailey 9 C15
Scott Kazmir 9 B

salaries are for this year; an A contract is first-year (it's a quirk of our dev squad system); B is second year - keep for no raise; C15 means they're already under contract and 2015 is their final year (but i don't *have* to keep them - another quirk of our rules); C? means contract year, so for Trout and Harper i'll have to decide how many years (listed salary is for 2015 only; add $4 for 2016; add $9 for keeping through 2017 - 3 years is our max keeper length). both trout and harper will be 3-year keepers for me, for $16.

that leaves four slots for the following:

Player Salary Contract
Ben Zobrist 25 B
Jayson Werth 21 C?
Brett Gardner 18 B
Rusney Castillo 15 B
Daniel Murphy 14 B
Alex Rios 10 C15
Logan Morrison 2 B
Danny Salazar 18 B
Drew Smyly 13 B
Bud Norris 2 B
Jake McGee 1 B

zobrist is expensive, but has great stats and the positional flexibility is good.
werth i'd probably keep (but just this year), but he just had (another) shoulder surgery.
gardner is a bit pricey, but also pretty good stats (OBA aside), and i think the yankees will be much improved.
castillo is a real question mark for me. leaning toward keeping him, because, well, if he turns out to be jose abreu i'd kick myself forever.
murphy is borderline pricey, and i'm leaning not keeping him, but 2B with decent counting stats aren't growing on trees.
rios is also a question mark. 10 seemed cheap, but he had such a crappy second half i'm questioning whether he's worth it.
morrison is cheap, and looking to potentially be the starting 1B in seattle. he had a good second half last year.
salazar i'm leaning toward no, at that price.
smyly is borderline, but our league tends to way overspend on starting pitching, so he's actually decently priced.
norris i suspect will fall off the list, but he's so cheap.
mcgee, if he comes back and gives even half a decent season, is worth $1. but i think i can throw him back and pick him up in the end game (we allow DL players to be auctioned, they just have to occupy a reserve slot).

any help appreciated.

[Sour Masher]

For the four remaining slots, I'd go with

Zobrist--I don't love that stadium for him, but he can hit, and as you say, the position flexibility is great to have
Castillo--yes, you would kick yourself all season if he is even 75% of Abreu, and he could be
Gardner--I picked him over Werth, because of Werth's injury and because I agree that the Yankees will give him more opportunities this year
McGee--You seem way more concerned about McGee's injury than most do. I think he'll miss only a month or two, and I don't believe Frieri has what it takes to take his job while he is out. I'd be shocked if you got him back up in the end game for under $5, unless closers are really devalued in your league. Dude has elite skills. With that hold formula in play, I'd be comfortable keeping him even if you think he ends up in a committee or in set up much of the year. He should still provide value in that set up for $1.

[Gregg]

Zobrist is the guy I would be trading. And if you can't then he might be the guy you put back and rebid if you really want to have him. I like Smyly at his price and as a Zobrist roster spot replacement. That said I would still shop him to see what the market is for him.

What does your league do with rookie status guys? Specifically Michael Taylor? Is he kept, available? If he is on a roster see if you can trade Werth to that owner. Or (as in our league) if he is free for this year and doesn't take up a roster spot trade for him and keep Werth. Taylor will get the stats (and is a future beast) while Werth is healing.

[chancellor]

I'd likely keep Zobrist, Castillo, Gardner, McGee and Smyly and dump Zunino. Zunino is a one-man OBP wrecking crew, and he absolutely sucked in the second half last year. With Seattle making more serious moves to contend in the AL West, they'll have little patience if he continues with his suckitude early.

Extend Trout through 2017 and Harper through 2016. Harper's injury history makes me too nervous to extend further, as DQ likes to say, others mileage may vary.

I'd be willing to deal any on this list, though I'd make the price for Castillo very, very high. And if you can still find anyone to give you a good deal on Hosmer, I'd jump on that in a minute.

[joncarlos]

I'd likely keep Zobrist, Castillo, Gardner, McGee and Smyly and dump Zunino. Zunino is a one-man OBP wrecking crew, and he absolutely sucked in the second half last year. With Seattle making more serious moves to contend in the AL West, they'll have little patience if he continues with his suckitude early.

Extend Trout through 2017 and Harper through 2016. Harper's injury history makes me too nervous to extend further, as DQ likes to say, others mileage may vary.

I'd be willing to deal any on this list, though I'd make the price for Castillo very, very high. And if you can still find anyone to give you a good deal on Hosmer, I'd jump on that in a minute.

Think I agree with this. I like Gardner in this format. There's some OBP upside. I like Zobrist and Castillo. Smyly also has the potential to be very good.

Though I'm not sure I'm sold on Homer Bailey, even for 9 bucks. Will he be healthy and remember how to pitch?

[bryanbutler]

thanks, all.

zobrist is interesting - i just wish he was cheaper . i think hosmer makes $11 easily if he stays healthy. not a given, so, yeah. bailey - yeah. he looks (and is) unhittable sometimes, then sucks sometimes. freakin' teaser. interesting thought on dumping zunino. his minor league OBA wasn't so sucky as his majors (well, excepting AAA), so i'd been assuming his eye would get better with time. he's only 24...

[Vecmizer]

I like Zobrist but at $25 there isnt much profit. That is a lot to pay for flexibility.. I am also the guy that likes to have $ at the draft so that is also factors into it.
I keep McGee for $1. I agree no way you get him for $1 in the end game.
Castillo is a keep unless in he has a poor spring and his PT looks in jeopardy.
I like Salazar to rebound and would target in the draft but no way do I keep for $18.
I love Smyly. His K's went up when he went to TB and that came when they encourage him to throw up in the zone. I think he also settles into the a full-time workload and looses the training wheels.