2k15 Phil Hughes...

[Hornsby]

Recently made a deal for him and was somewhat criticized for overpaying. I'm a believer in what he did last year, but is there a little more that can be squeezed out? Or is that pretty much the max? I'm perfectly happy with getting last years stats again for 5 bucks, but I'd like to hear a few opinions on WHY he turned it around in 2014...I know that Jason has some thoughts on the player, and I'd like to see what may be possible.

[virgonomic]

Recently made a deal for him and was somewhat criticized for overpaying. I'm a believer in what he did last year, but is there a little more that can be squeezed out? Or is that pretty much the max? I'm perfectly happy with getting last years stats again for 5 bucks, but I'd like to hear a few opinions on WHY he turned it around in 2014...I know that Jason has some thoughts on the player, and I'd like to see what may be possible.

What did you give up?

I don't think you can hope for much better than last year. He might not repeat the 16 wins. That said, he won from 2-4 games every month, so he was very consistent. April and July were rough months, and he will probably have a couple again.

He turned it around in 2014 because he's a talented young pitcher who got out of the Bronx zoo. 12 wins is more likely than 20 but he's a superb value at $5.

[R.Milos]

Well the easy explanation is that he pounded the strike zone and allowed an insanely low number of walks (16!!!!). But Hughes was always good at getting ahead of the count, what changed is he was able to put more batters away. Specifically with called strikes.

Increased strikeouts, decreased walks, decreased home runs and a more favorable park add up to a huge increase in production. I'd say it was a perfect storm for him. He always had the stuff and getting away from Yankee Stadium surely improved his confidence. He also developed his curveball and seemed to master his cutter. I'm a believer in Hughes but the walk rate is surely unsustainable. I'd say his results take a step backwards but I'm a buyer.

[revo]

The most important reason for the turnaround was leaving Yankee Stadium.The second most important reason was his mastery of different pitches he hadn't thrown before with any real success (or at all). According to PitchFx, he threw 509 cut fastballs in '14 after throwing only 7 in '13. He threw 365 knuckle curves in '14, and hadn't even thrown that type of pitch before his whole career. With the Yanks, he pretty much threw straight fastballs, which is why he gave up so many HRs.

He lowered his FB% to a career-low 40% and his HR% to 1.9% (as well as a career low HR/FB rate of 4.9%). He throws a lot of first pitch strikes and gets ahead in the count, and since he's a strike thrower and was giving up less HRs, he dominated. I don't think his BB% rate is sustainable, but if he stays healthy, I could foresee a mild regression. I like him a lot in 2015.

[R.Milos]

The most important reason for the turnaround was leaving Yankee Stadium.The second most important reason was his mastery of different pitches he hadn't thrown before. According to PitchFx, he threw 509 cut fastballs in '14 after throwing only 7 in '13. He threw 365 knuckle curves in '14, and hadn't even thrown that type of pitch before. With the Yanks, he pretty much threw straight fastballs, which is why he gave up so many HRs.

He lowered his FB% to a career-low 40% and his HR% to 1.9% (as well as a career low HR/FB rate of 4.9%). He throws a lot of first pitch strikes and gets ahead in the count, and since he's a strike thrower and was giving up less HRs, he dominated. I don't think his BB% rate is sustainable, but if he stays healthy, I could foresee a mild regression. I like him a lot in 2015.

Pretty sure me and Revo are on the same page

[Hornsby]

What did you give up?

I don't think you can hope for much better than last year. He might not repeat the 16 wins. That said, he won from 2-4 games every month, so he was very consistent. April and July were rough months, and he will probably have a couple again.

He turned it around in 2014 because he's a talented young pitcher who got out of the Bronx zoo. 12 wins is more likely than 20 but he's a superb value at $5.

I gave up Kohl Stewart, Danny Duffy, and a couple of 2nd round minor league picks. Wasn't going to keep Duffy, and I couldn't use the picks, since I only have 3 slots open. I like Stewart an awful lot, but considering I have Jon Gray, Giolito, Jose Berrios, and Manaea in my minors, I could afford to deal him. Also, given the Twins track record, he's a good 3-4 years away from the majors.

Like the info Milos and Revo...good stuff. Even if he double his walk rate, it pretty much goes to 1 per game...LOL.