2K15: Joey Votto

[revo]

Mr. Votto normally didn't need a player profile thread in years past since he was a lock 1st rounder, but after an injury-shortened disaster of a season, his stature has dropped considerably.

He currently has an ADP of 79, and he's generally ranked as the #12 1B (one site, Rotochamps, has him as low as the #29 1B!)

Two of his last three seasons have been derailed by injuries, and in his last full season in 2013, he underwhelmed with just 73 RBIs (despite solid other stats). Clouding matters more, he was miserable in his 235 ABs last season, with a low BA and almost no pop whatsoever. In OBP leagues, the guy is still a beast, but it remains to be seen if he can come anywhere close to the player he once was.

His 37 HR, .600 SLG% outbreak in 2010 seems like a major outlier that is unlikely to be repeated.

All that said, I still think he's a steal at #79.

[BuckyBuckner]

I got #91 in a NFBC 15 team draft back in November. (I also got Braun #90). I like my team.

[joncarlos]

The biggest problem I see is that the lineup around him suddenly kinda sucks (Hamilton and his .300 OBP, Phillips decaying, Bruce aging, shortstop a black hole, Marlon Byrd is 38)... it's really only Votto/Mesoraco/Frazier. I can see Votto hitting 2nd or 3rd with a .410 OBP and 100 runs with 50-60 RBIs.

[Don Quixote]

Votto's biggest problem is that he has the approach of a #2 hitter and is a first baseman hitting 3rd most of the time. He doesn't change his approach a bit when there are runners in scoring position; he seems to prefer drawing a walk with a runner on 3rd and one out to expanding his strike zone and trying to drive the ball. Right now, he's a classic Moneyball-era Billy Beane "Never mind power or RBIs, OBP is everything" guy.

It's not a terrible lineup around him and could be better than last year, with Byrd an improvement over the black hole they had in LF and Bruce possibly rebounding; OTOH, Phillips is declining (but just as loud and flashy) and you can't automatically count on Frazier and Mesoraco to repeat their 2014 seasons. Shortstop is still an offensive vacuum, and Hamilton needs to improve his OBP skills; perhaps he should study Votto's approach.

[mgwiz22]

The biggest problem I see is that the lineup around him suddenly kinda sucks (Hamilton and his .300 OBP, Phillips decaying, Bruce aging, shortstop a black hole, Marlon Byrd is 38)... it's really only Votto/Mesoraco/Frazier. I can see Votto hitting 2nd or 3rd with a .410 OBP and 100 runs with 50-60 RBIs.

Since the alternative to aging is dying I prefer the aging part. The "aging" Bruce is 27 years old.