2K15: Cole Hamels

[GwynnInTheHall]

I would love to hear your thoughts regarding Hamels and his production going forward. There's a debate among Padre fans that he won't pitch through his contract even if he remains healthy because power pitchers who have 1700+ innings on their arms at 30 decline rapidly. That assuming his contract in a trade would be foolish. I contend otherwise because....

Many arms after 1700 IP, guys who have a 7K/9 rate or higher, seem to have 3-5 dominant-very good years left in them. Hamels has always remained relatively healthy. Over the past 5 years he seems to have hit stride as a pitcher culminating in last years outstanding numbers, though 2011 was pretty great as well. A move to Petco always helps. Balsley and the Padre bullpen don't hurt either.

So it's my contention that with a trade to the Padres Hamels will enjoy another 3-4 years of 5.5-6.5 War per season thus pitching through the majority of his contract at an elite status.

Help me out on this cuz I could be completely wrong about it.

[Sharky]

Think about it this way, GITH/Doig: Hamels has a very expensive contract that approaches the market rate for top FA starters (see Kershaw, Greinke, others). The Padres are showing a willingness to spend but are probably still constrained. If you're going to take a risk on a player like that, is Hamels your guy? Or is it an Adrian Gonzalez-type? Seems like a wrong step could cripple the franchise for several years.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Which WAR are you looking at?

[joncarlos]

The thing is he really isn't signed to a market rate contract. He would get at least what Lester got on the FA market. So it's reasonable for the Phillies to ask for a little something for him. Hamels is signed at roughly 4 years/100mil, but also has a vesting option for 2019 that I'm not so sure about. So assuming you have to pick that up, you're saving about 1 year and 30mil at the end of the contract (compared to Lester.) Maybe not worth a team's 2 best prospects, but something.

He's a changeup guy and hasn't started losing his velocity yet, which means his change should stay effective for a while. I think he'd be a good pitcher for 3-4 years if not a Cy-Young contender. His numbers might look like Cy-caliber in Petco though. He had a 151 ERA+ last year. In Petco that's probably like a 2.30.

[mjl]

Which WAR are you looking at?

huh, that's a bigger spread in WAR calculations than you usually see. baseball-reference has his last five years as 5.4, 6.6, 4.6, 4.6, 6.6. fangraphs has them as 3.5, 4.6, 4.4, 4.1, 3.8.

fangraphs RA9-WAR has him as 5.5, 6.3, 5.1, 3.0, 6.0. fangraphs uses fielding-independent stats for their regular WAR calculations and actual runs allowed for RA9-WAR; b-r uses runs allowed and also tries to figure in team defense somehow.