RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Christmas" Edition)

[rhd]

Pretty doubtful that Urias will be up. Anything's possible, I suppose, but he's a 17 year old who has only hit high A. Seager is a NRI at camp this year (which kinda surprised me). He might get a cup o' joe this year but 2k16 is when he's projected to man short. But, yeah, they're all great prospects with not much separation between any of them.


Edit: My bad, Urias is now 18.
Edit 2: Urias has been 6 years younger than his competition, on average, according to Baseball Reference. It is just unbelievable what that kid has done so far. He was the youngest player ever in the history of the Futures Game.

I think I heard a couple times that Urias could be up mid-season. Like you tho, I'm skeptical of this unless something unusual happens. He's so unusual a prospect that there really isnt much of anyone to compare him to, so everyone is intrigued about what he'll do in MLB. Very small guy (5'11, 160) but throws 92-94 w an easy delivery and touches 97 and has excellent secondary pitches already. I guess one has to wonder whether he's really as young as he's supposed to be.

[onejayhawk]

This reminds me.

Thanks for
2014 - Joc Pederson
2014 - Lucas Giolito
2014 - Clint Frazier
2014 - Carlos Rodon
2013 - Byron Buxton
2013 - Oswaldo Arcia
2012 - George Springer
2012 - Christian Yelich

I seem to have better luck with the OF. Tons of trade bait though.

J

[overkill94]

Thanx for the response, J.

He didnt really drop. He was passed by some guys who jumped up, like Moncada and Tomas. His previous ranking reflected the assumption that he would be the starting 3Bman and that hasnt appeared to change. I actually expected him to be a little more highly thought of but he ranked only #6 on the team list for both BP and FanGraphs and Sickels rated him as only a B- prospect. His roto value is higher than his real value, but I still expect him to be a solid MLB regular.

Any concern with the talk that Tomas will get the chance to start at 3B initially? Rotoworld seemed to be skeptical that he could handle it defensively but they do seem to have too many outfielders unless Trumbo actually does get traded.

[rhd]

Any concern with the talk that Tomas will get the chance to start at 3B initially? Rotoworld seemed to be skeptical that he could handle it defensively but they do seem to have too many outfielders unless Trumbo actually does get traded.

Thanx for the response, overkill94.

I heard that, too. I cant see it. First, noone much thinks he can handle 3B. Second, too many OFers? They have Trumbo, Pollock and David Peralta. Peralta had a nice breakthrough season, but it's questionable whether he's a regular long-term and I cant see him blocking someone that they paid $68mil (or whatever it was) for. They may experiment w Tomas at 3B during ST but I think Lamb will be at 3B on opening day.

[rhd]

This reminds me.

Thanks for
2014 - Joc Pederson
2014 - Lucas Giolito
2014 - Clint Frazier
2014 - Carlos Rodon
2013 - Byron Buxton
2013 - Oswaldo Arcia
2012 - George Springer
2012 - Christian Yelich

I seem to have better luck with the OF. Tons of trade bait though.

J

I'll accept the thanx, J, but all of those guys were ranked highly on everyone else's lists, not just mine.

[onejayhawk]

I'll accept the thanx, J, but all of those guys were ranked highly on everyone else's lists, not just mine.

Not as highly ranked, in a couple of cases, or not yet.

J

[littlebilly3]

Rhd. One more keepers question. Thoughts on Mark Appel. Have him in a keeper league as well. On the cusp of wanting to keep him. Thoughts for this year and long term. His prospect shine has faded for sure

[Kevin Seitzer]

Rhd. One more keepers question. Thoughts on Mark Appel. Have him in a keeper league as well. On the cusp of wanting to keep him. Thoughts for this year and long term. His prospect shine has faded for sure

Comments here were made before the Arizona Fall League but might still be of interest to you:

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showthread.php/10356-RHD-s-Latest-Top-150-Roto-Prospects-(-quot-End-of-Season-quot-Edition)?p=200529&viewfull=1#post200529

[rhd]

Rhd. One more keepers question. Thoughts on Mark Appel. Have him in a keeper league as well. On the cusp of wanting to keep him. Thoughts for this year and long term. His prospect shine has faded for sure

Thanx for the response, littlebilly3.

After fading at the hitters' paradise known as Lancaster, his prospect star has started shining again. He did much better at AA Corpus Christi and really impressed in his AFL campaign. Consequently, I've moved him back up my rankings. But I think there's still some question as to how good a MLB pitcher he projects to be now. Not as many people think he's a TOR starter anymore, altho most think he's at least a #3. That's about what I'd project him for at this point, w a reasonably good chance to be a #2. That's someone I'd want to keep.

[cleo]

rhd - Great job as always. What can you tell me about the these 2 TB Rays pitchers. What do you think their ETA might be? Thanks

Ryne Stanek
Blake Snell

[Gregg]

With the injury to Werth do you move up Michael Taylor a few spots?

[rhd]

rhd - Great job as always. What can you tell me about the these 2 TB Rays pitchers. What do you think their ETA might be? Thanks

Ryne Stanek
Blake Snell

Thanx for the response, cleo.

I dont expect to see either of them before 2016. Snell seems to project as a back-end starter. Stanek has more upside but has really struggled as a pro and completely missed BA's Rays Top 10, which rt now is not a good system. Snell at least managed to sneak on the back of the list at #9.

[rhd]

With the injury to Werth do you move up Michael Taylor a few spots?

Thanx for the response, Gregg.

I expected Taylor to get some playing time in 2015 anyway. Werth may not be out that long so Taylor's time in MLB at the start of the year may be limited. Not enough of a change to move Taylor up for me.

[deaccat]

Hi RHD, thanks as always for the work you do and sharing it with us. I will wait until you share your list that you usually do closer to the start of the season to ask specific advice for my minors draft.

I am working on some hot stove trades now though. Thankfully I have done reall well the past 2 years with a second place and a run away 1st place last year! With the price of success has come some good issues in that I have too many really good valued keepers. We can keep 12 and I have at least 15 that are salaried at far below their project value. so I am hoping to trade some of these already producing keepers for others prospects who are on Minor league contracts of which my league allows an infinate amount to be rostered not counting towards the 12 keepers.

Also, with success has come a fairly weak farm system being that I have drafted at the bottom of the M draft the past few years and will again this year. I wrote a post last year asking a similar question about looking for guys with super high ceilings that are years away from being called up. My league is fairly deep with our M rosters so basically the top 50-60 prospects are pretty much taken. There may be a few here and there that be are available at the draft time basically bc they make a huge jump up the rankings from one year to the next.

My question pertaining to your list is how much do you factor age into the placement on the list. For example I am looking at trading for Hunter Harvey. I also have interest in Archie Bradley. With Harvey being so young at this point I am thinking he may actually have the higher upside? I can see a realistic scenario where in 2 years he is a top 10 prospect. (I know Bradley was that himself recently as well) I figure a few things could likely take place in the next 2 years for Harvey to jump up to that spot in the rankings. One being many of the higher ranked players at this point will make it to the bigs and be removed from the list. I know new prospects will enter in but if age and experience are factors when compiling the rankings than many would be ranked below Harvey at that point as they would be further away from major league ready and Harvey would potentially improve upon his first year and have that much more success supporting a rise in the rankings.

I hope what I am asking makes sense. I basically am forced to try to find the stars for 2-3 years from now. This worked perfect a few years back when I got Hamilton, Springer, and Tanaka while they were all ranked outside of the top 20 maybe even 30. Then 2 years ago they were all in the top 10 and last year they all contributed to my team. I am hoping to do this again in the draft. As well with these off season trades I am working on. i would rather have a guy like Harvey if he has higher upside than Bradley.( this may be a bad example as Bradley was top tier as well and still could be) Especially if Bradley's higher ranking has some to do with his age and expereince thus far.

Anyway, thanks. Looking forward to the season!

[rhd]

Hi RHD, thanks as always for the work you do and sharing it with us. I will wait until you share your list that you usually do closer to the start of the season to ask specific advice for my minors draft.

I am working on some hot stove trades now though. Thankfully I have done reall well the past 2 years with a second place and a run away 1st place last year! With the price of success has come some good issues in that I have too many really good valued keepers. We can keep 12 and I have at least 15 that are salaried at far below their project value. so I am hoping to trade some of these already producing keepers for others prospects who are on Minor league contracts of which my league allows an infinate amount to be rostered not counting towards the 12 keepers.

Also, with success has come a fairly weak farm system being that I have drafted at the bottom of the M draft the past few years and will again this year. I wrote a post last year asking a similar question about looking for guys with super high ceilings that are years away from being called up. My league is fairly deep with our M rosters so basically the top 50-60 prospects are pretty much taken. There may be a few here and there that be are available at the draft time basically bc they make a huge jump up the rankings from one year to the next.

My question pertaining to your list is how much do you factor age into the placement on the list. For example I am looking at trading for Hunter Harvey. I also have interest in Archie Bradley. With Harvey being so young at this point I am thinking he may actually have the higher upside? I can see a realistic scenario where in 2 years he is a top 10 prospect. (I know Bradley was that himself recently as well) I figure a few things could likely take place in the next 2 years for Harvey to jump up to that spot in the rankings. One being many of the higher ranked players at this point will make it to the bigs and be removed from the list. I know new prospects will enter in but if age and experience are factors when compiling the rankings than many would be ranked below Harvey at that point as they would be further away from major league ready and Harvey would potentially improve upon his first year and have that much more success supporting a rise in the rankings.

I hope what I am asking makes sense. I basically am forced to try to find the stars for 2-3 years from now. This worked perfect a few years back when I got Hamilton, Springer, and Tanaka while they were all ranked outside of the top 20 maybe even 30. Then 2 years ago they were all in the top 10 and last year they all contributed to my team. I am hoping to do this again in the draft. As well with these off season trades I am working on. i would rather have a guy like Harvey if he has higher upside than Bradley.( this may be a bad example as Bradley was top tier as well and still could be) Especially if Bradley's higher ranking has some to do with his age and expereince thus far.

Anyway, thanks. Looking forward to the season!

Thanx for the response, deaccat.

I put a lot of emphasis on ARL (age relative to league) in my rankings, probably more than I should. I've heard people say in particular that ARL doesnt matter so much when it comes to pitchers. And sooner or later, despite hype and ARL, a player has to start producing at a level that sets him apart from other players. But still I consider ARL important.

Re: Bradley and Harvey, I'd prefer Bradley. They both have similar upside and Bradley is a lot closer to MLB. Plus Harvey was hurt at the ned of last year, altho I dont think it was anything that will affect him long-term. They might end up giving similar MLB production in 2-3 years but before then Bradley will be giving your roto team a lot of stats whereas Harvey probably wont be.