2K24: San Diego Padres

[cleo]

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

Please show me another long term contract that has really worked out for the team? The Pujols contract alone ruined the Angels chances of playoff success for a decade. Sure looks like the Rockies felt the Arenado contract worked for them?? David Price in BOS? I think the Red Sox are paying half his salary still.
I can see SD not only trading Tatis within 3 years, but having to put in a large amount of $$$ in the trade just to get a team to take him off their hands.

[Bene Futuis]

Saw something around somewhere on the interwebs that said that not one single starting shortstop from 2007 (14 years ago) is still in the league today. I think that just changed very recently since Ben Zobrist just signed a minor league deal, iirc. Still, makes ya think...

[Teenwolf]

Please show me another long term contract that has really worked out for the team? The Pujols contract alone ruined the Angels chances of playoff success for a decade. Sure looks like the Rockies felt the Arenado contract worked for them?? David Price in BOS? I think the Red Sox are paying half his salary still.
I can see SD not only trading Tatis within 3 years, but having to put in a large amount of $$$ in the trade just to get a team to take him off their hands.

Although I generally agree with your premise that almost all LT contracts turn bad, I'll play first.

Max Scherzer signed a 5 year, $105 mil deal after 2015. That's gone very well.

Derek Jeter's 10 year, $189 mil deal from 2001-'10 worked out pretty okay for the Yanks.

[The Feral Slasher]

Saw something around somewhere on the interwebs that said that not one single starting shortstop from 2007 (14 years ago) is still in the league today. I think that just changed very recently since Ben Zobrist just signed a minor league deal, iirc. Still, makes ya think...

If my career won't last 14 years I will reconsider becoming a MLB shortstop

[The Feral Slasher]

Although I generally agree with your premise that almost all LT contracts turn bad, I'll play first.

Max Scherzer signed a 5 year, $105 mil deal after 2015. That's gone very well.

Derek Jeter's 10 year, $189 mil deal from 2001-'10 worked out pretty okay for the Yanks.

Alex Rodriguez is the mega contract I think about. I don't recall exactly how it turned out, but I don't think it was horrible for either side. I suppose the age at termination of contract should be considered, and Tatis won't be really old

[GwynnInTheHall]

Please show me another long term contract that has really worked out for the team? The Pujols contract alone ruined the Angels chances of playoff success for a decade. Sure looks like the Rockies felt the Arenado contract worked for them?? David Price in BOS? I think the Red Sox are paying half his salary still.
I can see SD not only trading Tatis within 3 years, but having to put in a large amount of $$$ in the trade just to get a team to take him off their hands.

I'll take that bet.

[Teenwolf]

Saw something around somewhere on the interwebs that said that not one single starting shortstop from 2007 (14 years ago) is still in the league today. I think that just changed very recently since Ben Zobrist just signed a minor league deal, iirc. Still, makes ya think...

How many 21 year olds coming off an MVP season played SS in 2007?

I would take the over on Tatis still being in the league for his age 35 season. But you're right it isn't a given.

We saw these extra long-term deals start in the NHL after their salary cap came into play, and it created some disasters. Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro signed at 25 years old for 15 years... although these deals expect dead weight for the final few years, Rick fell off quick, and was out of the league after 7 years.

[Bene Futuis]

How many 21 year olds coming off an MVP season played SS in 2007?

I would take the over on Tatis still being in the league for his age 35 season. But you're right it isn't a given.

We saw these extra long-term deals start in the NHL after their salary cap came into play, and it created some disasters. Islanders goalie Rick DiPietro signed at 25 years old for 15 years... although these deals expect dead weight for the final few years, Rick fell off quick, and was out of the league after 7 years.

Yep, Tatis is very unique. He'll have to continue to be so, too. He's played less than one full season so far (143 games).

[chancellor]

I'll take that bet.

Me too. Most of the long-term deals, as you and Teenwolf noted, didn't just turn 22. But even if I'd take a moderately negative view, and assume Tatis, jr only has ten good years to age 32, the dead money at the end will be significantly devalued after ten years. But I think it's a pretty good bet he'll still be productive into his mid-30s.

[The Feral Slasher]

So if u were Tatis or the Padres would you not sign the deal? I would agree to it as either one

[Bene Futuis]

So if u were Tatis or the Padres would you not sign the deal? I would agree to it as either one

Price you pay for a talent like that.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Me too. Most of the long-term deals, as you and Teenwolf noted, didn't just turn 22. But even if I'd take a moderately negative view, and assume Tatis, jr only has ten good years to age 32, the dead money at the end will be significantly devalued after ten years. But I think it's a pretty good bet he'll still be productive into his mid-30s.

I was simply pushing back at the notion that this padres front office would revert to the old padre ways. Tatis jr is not only the face of the Padres for the foreseeable future, he's the face of the game. What he's left on the table he'll make up in endorsements, playoff money and he'll be able to pawn his World series rings if things ever get tough....

[Sour Masher]

I was simply pushing back at the notion that this padres front office would revert to the old padre ways. Tatis jr is not only the face of the Padres for the foreseeable future, he's the face of the game. What he's left on the table he'll make up in endorsements, playoff money and he'll be able to pawn his World series rings if things ever get tough....

This was my attitude about Lindor in Cleveland. And Betts in Boston. They did not agree, it seems. I am firmly in the camp of it not being wise for teams to give super long mega contracts to to aging superstars whose skiil sets are sure to age poorly. The Pujols and Miggy deals at that stage in his career was incredibly short sighted, unless they assumed PEDs was gonna prop up post-30 players like they did back in the PEDD era.

But giving a mega deal to a 22 year old superstar at a prime defensive position is not like giving an aging 1bman that money. Again, I love this deal for both the team and the player. Everyone is happy with this one, and the risk vs reward balance looks good to me for both sides.

[virgonomic]

Barring Injury this is the starting 5:

Yu Darvish
Blake Snell
Dinelson Lamet
Joe Musgrove
Chris Paddack

That is one of the filthiest rotations I have ever seen.

[Bene Futuis]

That is one of the filthiest rotations I have ever seen.

And it's not even the best in their own division! Crazy times.