2K24: San Diego Padres

[GwynnInTheHall]

[madducks]

$25ish mil a year...a steal for a player of his talent

He's not even the highest paid player on his team.

[Sour Masher]

He's not even the highest paid player on his team.

Ha, still a great deal for him. If he invests even half the extra money he is getting on the front end of this deal, by the end of the contract, he will be well ahead of where he would have been if he waited for FA and signed essentially the same deal for 3-4 less years.

[TranaGreg]

he's 22, and he signed a contract for a third of a billion dollars.

boggles the mind.

[Hornsby]

Obviously, baseball is in horrible financial straights. Barely able to squeak by...

Yeah, good luck playing THAT card next year in the upcoming labor dispute. And remember, San Diego is considered a small market. I'll bet the other owners are livid right about now...

[ThatRogue]

Ha, still a great deal for him. If he invests even half the extra money he is getting on the front end of this deal, by the end of the contract, he will be well ahead of where he would have been if he waited for FA and signed essentially the same deal for 3-4 less years.

Without knowing the terms of the contract, especially what the money looks like in those early years, it’s too early to say that.

[ThatRogue]

$25ish mil a year...a steal for a player of his talent

Agreed. Once again, the owners make out like bandits. The overall money is incredible in the context of “normal people”...but he’s probably leaving a lot of money on the table.

[chancellor]

Agreed. Once again, the owners make out like bandits. The overall money is incredible in the context of “normal people”...but he’s probably leaving a lot of money on the table.

Agree per money on the table, though in my IPA contemplations last night, I realized it's less than I thought. Revo, being the financial wizard on the board, can do the math better than I can, but Tatis will get somewhere from $50-80 mil more in the next three years than he would have, and that can come with a pretty big time value of money with it if he's smart about putting a chunk of that away.

[chancellor]

Obviously, baseball is in horrible financial straights. Barely able to squeak by...

Yeah, good luck playing THAT card next year in the upcoming labor dispute. And remember, San Diego is considered a small market. I'll bet the other owners are livid right about now...

Interesting - I came to the exact opposite conclusion and that agents were gonna be PO'd since the owners will point to a guy with Trout-level talent getting $25 mil/year instead of $40-45 mil/year. It not only impacts FA contracts, but also arbitration values.

OTOH, I agree with Sour Masher that it's a great deal for Tatis, jr. too.

[Ken]

Interesting - I came to the exact opposite conclusion and that agents were gonna be PO'd since the owners will point to a guy with Trout-level talent getting $25 mil/year instead of $40-45 mil/year. It not only impacts FA contracts, but also arbitration values.

I think everyone in those type negotiations grasps the difference between pre-arb contracts and free agent contracts. You are comparing apples and oranges.

[Sour Masher]

Agreed. Once again, the owners make out like bandits. The overall money is incredible in the context of “normal people”...but he’s probably leaving a lot of money on the table.

Maybe, but it is close and a hell of a lot better than Acuna's awful deal. Unlike Acuna, I doubt Tatis ends up regretting this deal.

[ThatRogue]

Agree per money on the table, though in my IPA contemplations last night, I realized it's less than I thought. Revo, being the financial wizard on the board, can do the math better than I can, but Tatis will get somewhere from $50-80 mil more in the next three years than he would have, and that can come with a pretty big time value of money with it if he's smart about putting a chunk of that away.

Considering the way the Acuna deal was structured, I don't think there's any way he's getting that much in the next three years. I'd be surprised if he makes more than $26 million over the next three seasons (I'd assume something like $2 million, then $9 million, then $15 million)...and that's probably not far off from what he'd have received in arbitration.

[ThatRogue]

Maybe, but it is close and a hell of a lot better than Acuna's awful deal. Unlike Acuna, I doubt Tatis ends up regretting this deal.

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

[Ken]

Last season, Bellinger received $11.5 million in his first year of arbitration (the record). Arenado set the overall arbitration record with a $26 million dollar deal in his final year. So let's assume the following:

2021: $500K (final pre-arb season)
2022: $12M
2023: $20M
2024: $28M (final arb season)
2025 - 2034: $35 million per season for 10 seasons (via free agency)
Total: $410.5M (which may be slightly conservative seeing as how Trout received $426.5)

Thus, Tatis has probably left $70 - $100 million dollars on the table. Even billionaires believe that's a lot of money, so to a brand new millionaire...that's definitely significant.

Your $70-$100m deficit is the combination of injury risk, market risk, and decreased performance risk along with net present value of money. Consider that the $10m signing bonus alone is worth ~$20m in 14 years.

Seems about right.

[The Feral Slasher]

Your $70-$100m deficit is the combination of injury risk, market risk, and decreased performance risk along with net present value of money. Consider that the $10m signing bonus alone is worth ~$20m in 14 years.

Seems about right.

I agree. Perhaps more risk for Tatis. My guess is he would have done better on a shorter contract...but locking in hundreds of millions of dollars is also not a bad idea. He is clearly financially secure for life so all he needs to deal with is the ego/mental aspect of wishing he got tens of millions more as the contract plays out