2K24: San Diego Padres

[madducks]

Pittsburgh is reportedly interested in Justin Upton. He would be a much needed addition to the middle of their power starved lineup and could be the final piece to put them over the top. What do you think it would take for the the Pirates to pull off this deal? Gregory Polanco? Jameson Taillon? One or both or neither?

[Friarfan]

Even I wasn't as harsh on the Padres' moves as this article is. Dayum!

https://grantland.com/features/aj-preller-mlb-san-diego-padres-national-league-west/

A sampling: "The red flags were easy to see. When we made preseason predictions, I picked the Padres to be this year’s flop. As I wrote then: “There’s a lot of talent here. What’s not here is a contending team.”

I didn’t like what I had seen from Preller at that point; I felt he had confused activity with progress. As it turns out, I was wrong. His first, frenetic winter as a major league general manager wasn’t just bad. It was much, much worse.

The Padres are a mess. That alone should be enough to question Preller’s prowess. But the damage he has done to the organization is even worse than that, because so far we’ve discussed only the players he brought in — not the ones he traded away. If you’re a Padres fan, look away now."

So, the thing is: yes, it's a mess. All signs were that it could potentially be a mess. However, after years of penny-pinching ways and waiting for a farm system to produce...what the hell? Let's throw some spaghetti against a wall and see if sticks. Sure, this season has been a major disappointment (hold your horses, they're on a 5 game winning streak now) but doing something (anything!) was a major improvement over the days of hoping we land an Edwin Jackson type as our big off-season splash.

For a Padre fan, this off season was fun! Taking off the rose-colored glasses and seeing it how the rest of baseball nerds saw it, sure, it was trying to fit too many square pegs in to round holes but, like I said, it was much better than off seasons past. WIll we miss Turner, Ross, Wisler, etc.? Sure. Who knows. We'd been waiting years for those types to come up and perform in the past and it hasn't worked out so well.

[The Dane]

While I am in agreement with most of what was asserted in that incendiary piece (which I loved) and the rest of this thread, one thing occurs to me:

If Preller built a deserved reputation on player development, then he is relying on his strength here. As Friarfan points out, the Padres haven't exactly had a lot of success working through their farm system. Perhaps, Preller feels that the guys he traded away were players that had more value than he felt they deserved. He could certainly be wrong, but isn't that the job of a player development guy, to know when to trade away your guy with inflated value and grab the other team's fallen stud when he value is lowest? Maybe he's cleaning the minor league cabinet because he thought it was terrible (and there are years of futility with the Padres to back that assertion) and surmised that maybe he could trade it away for studs in the short term which would give him some options: First, he gets some excitement going and puts a few more fans in the seats, at least in the short term. (That happened.) Second, maybe, by some chance, he assembles a quickee contender. (That didn't happen.) And third, if they flop, he can sell off his studs for minor leaguers he likes better than the ones he skinned in the off-season. (Could still happen.) So, he reconstitutes his farm system in one year by getting value for guys he doesn't like and replaces them with guys he does.

We'll know more about his plan in the coming weeks, but this is a guy who MAY actually know what he's doing and I think we should give him at least time enough to see his plan through before we deem it an abject failure. (Which it probably is, because... well... The Padres.)

[overkill94]

It's obviously too early to tell, but it would seem that his evaluation skills are pretty poor considering the success of pretty much ALL the guys he traded away.

[The Dane]

It's obviously too early to tell, but it would seem that his evaluation skills are pretty poor considering the success of pretty much ALL the guys he traded away.

Yep, but we really won't know until we see what he gets back in his firesale. I'm not positing that I think he's some sort of wizard and has outsmarted everyone, just that he MAY have a plan that is all working just as he conceived it, and it isn't over just yet.

[heyelander]

Yep, but we really won't know until we see what he gets back in his firesale. I'm not positing that I think he's some sort of wizard and has outsmarted everyone, just that he MAY have a plan that is all working just as he conceived it, and it isn't over just yet.

Yep. I'm just waiting for Amaro's big reveal. It's going to be epic!

[The Dane]

Eh, I guess. There's a lot more to this story than just the unbelievable amount of talent he shipped off and whatever he can manage to get back from whatever is left. He's also stuck with some of the worst contracts in baseball (Kemp and Melvin) and has very little on-field talent to show for any of the moves. I mean, who can he even trade to get anything back for? Half a season of Upton will garner some sort of prospect package, although it has to be far less than what was paid. Shields has a little bit of excess value on that big contract, probably. Eh, Kimbrel? He'd net something. Who else? There is just no way to envision this coming out as a net positive after a firesale. It was terrible strategy from the get-go. At this point, if I were Preller, I'd ride it out and hope that they could get hot and grab a playoff spot so that at least it was sorta worth it for this season. I wouldn't bet on that happening but it's still certainly possible - with a rotation like that, they really could go on a streak at any point.

But really this has all played out exactly like the more savvy pundits thought it would. Selling off your entire farm system is not a good way to build a team. I was pretty shocked that his moves got the support around these parts that they did, as I view our community as more sophisticated than the average Twitter user or whatever. Guess I was wrong.

Yeah, I hear you.

This is really Preller's make-it-or-break-it moment. He's relying on his skills as someone who knows players. If he was right, he'll look like a genius. If he's wrong, he'll be the ignominious goat. I'm tending toward the latter, of course. Who in their right mind wouldn't? I'm just leaving the door open for the possibility that Preller deserved his reputation and there is good reason why he makes the big bucks.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I have a lot to say on this, some in defense of Preller, some not and some things that haven't been mentioned at all yet (like the fact Grandal, as talented as he was, HAD to be traded due to issues with other teammates and the club). I'm gonna wait and see what Preller does, and while I tend to agree with Chris that Preller will double down, I think he might do a bit of both...selling and buying. Till the deadline......

[Sharky]

I have a lot to say on this, some in defense of Preller, some not and some things that haven't been mentioned at all yet (like the fact Grandal, as talented as he was, HAD to be traded due to issues with other teammates and the club). I'm gonna wait and see what Preller does, and while I tend to agree with Chris that Preller will double down, I think he might do a bit of both...selling and buying. Till the deadline......

Doig, eager to hear your thoughts on this. In the interim, I'll just say that maybe Grandal "had to be traded." But that doesn't mean that the return they got for him was the best available.

[overkill94]

Doig, eager to hear your thoughts on this. In the interim, I'll just say that maybe Grandal "had to be traded." But that doesn't mean that the return they got for him was the best available.

In Preller's defense, not many thought the Dodgers won that trade initially. Kemp was coming off a dominant 2nd half and Grandal had that unsightly .225 batting average. Casual Dodger fans were outraged that one of their favorite players was flipped for a mediocre catcher and the advanced statistics that were used in his defense like batted ball distance and pitch framing were written off as nerd boy hooey. His escape from Petco has validated that batted ball distance stat and it's been discussed that his pitch framing might be leading to Greinke's dominance since he's the type who likes to paint the corners (just ask Bryce Harper). For me, I was just excited to have a catcher with solid on-base skills and to open up a spot for Joc which strengthened the defense all-around.

[Judge Jude]

Kemp killing it of late, though

[revo]

If the Pads sell off some bats, are Hunter Renfroe or Travis Jankowski likely to get a call?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Lots of interesting things happening in SD right now. I don't see them cleaning house and re loading with minor leaguers, that'd undo the direction they chose last Winter. I can see them trying to get something for Upton, Kennedy, Benoit and Venable, but the rest? I'm hearing they 'want' to deal Cashner, Ross and or Shields but I can't see that, maybe one of them, but not multiples. I've heard Kimbrel, but that doesn't make sense. keep in mind most every trade rumor is coming in unsubstantiated.

These are things that ARE happening, Fed Ex will be ready to return soon and Myers will follow shortly. Morrow is close and Mauer has expressed interest in returning to the rotation.


but to your question Ed.

Jankowski JUST got to AAA so I'm doubtful and both Liriano or Decker would get a call before Renfroe, who JUST started playing back to expectations.

PLUS any of those guys mentioned could be dealt if the Padres really do decide they can make a run for it.

I wish I had more certainty, but this Preller guy is an enigma to me so far.

[revo]

So what happened here?

[GwynnInTheHall]

I have a lot to say on this, some in defense of Preller, some not and some things that haven't been mentioned at all yet (like the fact Grandal, as talented as he was, HAD to be traded due to issues with other teammates and the club). I'm gonna wait and see what Preller does, and while I tend to agree with Chris that Preller will double down, I think he might do a bit of both...selling and buying. Till the deadline......

Didn't do the selling I thought he would, though it seems he tried but his asking price was well, like mine in RJEL :P

They have to do something with FedEx by Sunday (poss Sat) so another move is coming.

I can't imagine they'll stand pat in CF or up the middle so watch for smaller waiver deals as players are put on waivers.

Preller just Couldn't sell, he's planning on resigning Upton (that's why he brought BJ in) Upton is rumored to have said if you keep us together (as in, the team) , I'll make SD my 1st choice in FAgency.

Had to keep Shields or run the risk of being Loria-esque.

Now they need to lay like they have the past 3-4 series and they only have 2 teams above .500 in the upcoming 10 series or so.

I don't know if they have in them to make a run at the 2nd WC, but it is somewhat refreshing that they're going to try. Even if it is contrary to most logical analysis.