2K24: San Diego Padres

[GwynnInTheHall]

It wasn't, he hasn't pitched since the 9th.

Keep up the jokin, you jokey joker.

[Ken]

Keep up the jokin, you jokey joker.

[GwynnInTheHall]

If you can dodge a wrench....

[GwynnInTheHall]

So...a day after saying they were indeed going to stick with the 6 man rotation upon Snell's return, interim manager Christiansen has said they'll be going back to the 5 man rotation and BOTH Martinez and Gore will be in the BP. I can't get confirmation until tomorrow, but if this indeed the way--I'd look for Gore to piggyback Clevinger's starts and Martinez to follow Snell's starts until both Blake and sunshine start going deep into games.

Snell is starting in Philly next week so they'll have to move someone off the roster, it should be Alacantara since they optioned Lamet when Cano was added.

[GwynnInTheHall]

It's official--Gore will follow Sunshine today and Martinez piggybacks Snell tomorrow.

[revo]

how long until Mazara gets called up to replace Profar in LF?

[GwynnInTheHall]

how long until Mazara gets called up to replace Profar in LF?

I'd be very surprised if Profar loses his gig. He leads MLB LFs in assists, is 2nd on the team in HRs (though he hasn't had one in a while--in fact the Padres haven't hit one in a week.) and management seems OK with sending him out there every day. FWIW, every guy called up from El Paso, where they posted insane numbers, has fallen flat. Mazara is doing well, but I just don't see him displacing anyone right now.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Clevinger back to the IL

[whalewang]

Gore on to pitch on Saturday. Clevinger expected to pitch Sunday (if the bullpen session is good). Nick Martinez to the bullpen? GITH, thoughts? More updates!

[GwynnInTheHall]

Gore on to pitch on Saturday. Clevinger expected to pitch Sunday (if the bullpen session is good). Nick Martinez to the bullpen? GITH, thoughts? More updates!

Sorry I've been busy in RL. Martinez back to the BP with Wilson going down. 6 man rotation because they just can't put Gore back in the BP, he's their 2nd best starter right now. Mazara might get a look as Alcantara seems to be a wasted roster spot and they need some kind of offensive boost, though Trayce Thompson crushed it in AAA only to fail at the ML level and be DFAd. Though it may not seem so, all 3 OFs have been better lately doing just enough to keep faith in the FO, so unless he came up and tore the cover off--I don't see him supplanting anyone. Even Voit has seemed to start having better ABs. They've struggled to slug, but have actually out hit most of their opponents over the past week in which they've been a .500 club. Also, opposing teams have been stringing together timely hits (today for example, the Cards get 2 runs in the 2nd on a walk, a hit. a WP and a SF) The Padres have loaded the bases multiple times with less than 2 outs only to
come away empty. At 30-19, I don't see the Pads panicking and making drastic moves, Melvin seems adept at sticking with his guys who eventually come through.

Clevinger is back this weekend, Pomeranz sometime mid June. Tatis, not soon enough. The ONE place you might see a change is at Catcher--I see the Padres acquiring W Contreras From the cubs and moving Nola somewhere as Alfaro is better behind the plate, has more power potential and a better arm.

FWIW Abrams has also started to get hot and is now playing CF so make of that what you may.

Bottom-line, unless it's a blockbuster that brings the Padres young controllable talent, I don't see them being the team that 'wins' the deadline. Smaller moves that flesh out the thin bench and possibly another impact BP arm.

Also don't be surprised if the Padres extend Musgrove at the All Star Break, every start they wait is costing them money and I absolutely think they'll ink him to a long term deal.

[FBP]

Pads: poor offense and poor middle relief - not a recipe for sustained success. Wasting great starting pitching. You can lay the poor roster construction at the feet of of AJ Preller.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Pads: poor offense and poor middle relief - not a recipe for sustained success. Wasting great starting pitching. You can lay the poor roster construction at the feet of of AJ Preller.

OK I'll bite--If by poor you mean middle of the pack--Ok the hitting is poor. (I'd say league Avg.) It's league Avg and that's OK. If by Poor you mean top 3rd then OK...Their BP is top 10 even with all the injuries. They seem to be worse because they have little margin for error so the games that have slipped away were very close to being wins and even if they had half of those, they'd be tied with LA for the best record in the NL. You say they can't sustain it, but they have--why? Pitching and Defense and the ever elusive club chemistry. They're top 5 in both and Melvin has changed the culture. These guys win and lose together and rebound with the best. All this without arguably one of the top 3 players in the MLB. I've watched my share of Padre games over the past few decades, more so since games have become more accessible away from the ballpark. There's just something different with this team--I credit Melvin and Niebla. They're struggling this past week 5-5 in their last 10, yet sit just 3 games back of LA, 4th best record in the NL. They're run differential puts them right where they should be (it's 5th) So If you'r saying their record is unsustainable--I'll have to respectfully disagree. Sure Machado and Hosmer are due some regression, but the rest of the team is due to get better and there are signs of just that.

You lay all of this at Preller's feet, roster construction--well he built that 'great' starting rotation as well, every member of it. He brought in Machado and Tatis. Melvin and Niebla. So IF the Padres can sustain and make the playoffs--every bit of that is because of him as well. He's not a perfect GM, but in my 45 years of being a Padres fan they've only had a couple of team that were as relevant as this one.

This Padres team as is, isn't the same team you'll see at the deadline or end of the season. Guys like Cano, Alacantara, Wilson and potentially others will have been replaced by more productive pieces. There is no panic in these guys, nor in Preller.

We'll see today-- Darvish on the mound, the Padres have lost 2 in a row (they haven't lost more than that in a row all season)

Wow that was a mouthful--I guess I'll leave it with this--------According to Twitter, the Padres are the first team to ever be eliminated at 30-19.

Don't be a Twit.

[Ken]

If by Poor you mean top 3rd then OK...Their BP is top 10 even with all the injuries. They seem to be worse because they have little margin for error so the games that have slipped away were very close to being wins and even if they had half of those, they'd be tied with LA for the best record in the NL.

Note that he said poor MIDDLE relief. Rogers has obviously pitched well. But obviously not in middle relief so citing the top 10 BP isn't really telling the whole picture.

Wilson and Hill have been bad. Lamet failed as a reliever. Suarez, Crismatt and Stammen have been average to above average, if a bit lucky.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Note that he said poor MIDDLE relief. Rogers has obviously pitched well. But obviously not in middle relief so citing the top 10 BP isn't really telling the whole picture.

Wilson and Hill have been bad. Lamet failed as a reliever. Suarez, Crismatt and Stammen have been average to above average, if a bit lucky.

OK let's unpack that. Wilson has been bad, Lamet failed, Suarez, Stammen and Crismatt have indeed been Avg and just a bit lucky and I'm not sure what analytic you're using--xFIP? WAR? Some combination? A reference point would help me in undertstanding. Here's some things I feel you missed in your response.

The Padre BP in 5th by xFIP, 10th in WAR--Rogers is 5th in XFIP in the Padres BP and tied for 1st in WAR. There have been many shit arms who've contributed to that avg/above avg BP to date. Do we look at the CURRENT BP or the entirety of the season to date? In MY analysis, I focus on who's on the team now and who might be going forward--what happened in the past may have been a poor choice/mistake--but hopefully the fact they are in the past means the FO/Management has learned and improved the product. But others might choose a different baseline for their analysis--the Middle relief for the year has still put the Padres at 30-19, though one could say they've held them back from having an even better record. I don't know if there's a way to get exact Middle relief numbers vs total BP numbers without taking the time to crunch all those one's self--but I'll do my best to extrapolate from what I've got.

You say Suarez, Stammen and Crismatt have been lucky--you're right, but their xFIP is still under 3.50 which puts them under the team xFIP at 3.59 so I don't see them as the problem. You say Hill has been bad--well, since he's returned from his injury he's got a 2.46 xFIP and he's only pitched 10 innings so I'd say sample size doesn't allow us to really gauge if he's bad or not even so--his totals for the year show he's gotten a bit unlucky but he's never been more than an Avg guy (3.80-4.10) anyway so maybe he will also be replaced down the stretch. Rogers has been a rock, but his 3.10 xFIP is 4th in the BP and he's tied with Garcia in WAR whom I didn't see mentioned.

Over the past 2 weeks, the middle relief has been decent to avg--but not poor. I define poor as bottom of the league even if you look at it over the past 2 weeks when Rogers has literally been the Avg reliever on the team, the Padres BP is still top 3rd. That doesn't make it Poor from my perspective--Avg? yes, Disappointing--yes, room for improvement--Always. But I stand by my assertion that the Padres have the exact record they should have if not a couple of games under.

FBP is not alone in the way he feels--there are quite a few Padre fans who aren't fans of Prellers, nor are the happy with the Padres record or think the Padres are playing over their heads--I just don't share that sentiment. I also feel I'm a little more informed and intuitive regarding all things Padres, but that could just be my Hubris.

If I've missed something or mis-read something you posted--please feel free to edify me. As always--thanks for the input--I enjoy things that make me work for my supper.

[Ken]

It seems like you are attacking a straw man here. I was responding to your post to fbp where you referenced stats for the entire bullpen to counter his characterization about middle relief. And it seems like you agree with my other points as well. So... not sure what argument you have with me, seems like you are still arguing with FBP.