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2K24: San Diego Padres

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  • #136
    The Padres won 77 games last year with an outfield of Seth Smith, Will Venable and Amarista/Denorfia/Farancoer/Liriano/Maybin/Nady/Quentin/Medica

    The major upgrade offensively in the outfield far outweighs the defensive question marks.

    A starting 4 of: Shields, Cashner, Ross, Kennedy with a 5th of Morrow/J Johnson/Erlin/Despagnie (I hope not) is a nice luxury.

    They still have to move one (or two or three) of: Quentin, Maybin, Venable

    Maybin and Q are pretty much unmovable unless they outright DFA them or eat most all of their contracts.


    Man, I have a big boner.

    Comment

    • #137
      Originally posted by revo View Post
      And they're relevant now (with fans, competitors and even Vegas, where they're a startling 16-1 to win the WS) for the first time in what, 17 seasons? And their payroll will only be $10-$20m over what it was last season.
      I'm in Vegas now. It was 30-1 last night before they signed Shields.
      If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

      Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
      Martin Luther King, Jr.

      Comment

      • #138
        Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
        I'm in Vegas now. It was 30-1 last night before they signed Shields.
        Wow, how much did you plunk down? You really moved the line.

        Comment

        • #139
          Originally posted by eldiablo505
          Well, outside of the, what, $200 million and the boatloads of prospects (that whole "they didn't trade their good prospects" is laughable) and their first round pick, you're exactly right lol.

          That said, I do like the Shields signing in a vacuum.

          They did well to hold on to Renfroe, for sure.
          Lot's of somewhat misleading Dodgerspeak in this. Yes the Padres added 200 million in contracts over the next 5 years. But the will only increase their payroll from last year to about 20-30 million to what $120 Million? They only dealt 3 of their top 10 prospects and the only on in the top 5 was Fried at #3 who was coming of TJ surgery so yeah, the Padres still have 7 of their top 10 prospects and their top 2 in Hedges and Wisler, Renfroe is 4th.

          Also, Upton is the only one year Stud rental on the team. Most of the talent Preller brought in is controllable.

          Preller still may deal his top guys for Hamels, so you may eventually be right in that they have dealt their future for a run this season and next.

          Still to come, will the Padres bring in Moncada and Olivia?

          Vegas, btw, just moved the Padres into second for the division at 6-1 behind the favored Dodgers at 5-2....but that could change soon as well.


          Should be a fun year Chris, I am sure we will be back and forth all season so let me say it now...good Luck....cause I'm sure I wont say it again.
          If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

          Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
          Martin Luther King, Jr.

          Comment

          • #140
            How I woke up this morning...

            Flair.jpg

            Comment

            • #141
              Originally posted by eldiablo505
              Depth Charts - Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball
              http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
              2025 projected standings for major league baseball teams

              Sucuri WebSite Firewall - Access Denied
              http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

              http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml (pre-Shields)
              http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/projections/standings/
              those projections have some wide differences (SD predicted for 75, 80, and 85 wins). and i think the last link is for 2014.
              "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

              Comment

              • #142
                The Padres have outperformed projections 3 years running. I see no reason they won't do it for a fourth year.

                Projections of all stripes are what they are. One and only one possible outcome.

                The Padres have proven they are better on the field than on paper.

                ElDhater
                If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                Martin Luther King, Jr.

                Comment

                • #143
                  I wonder who will end up most accurate at the end of the season in predicting team wins, one of the projection systems or the end-of-March Vegas over-under. My money is on Vegas.

                  Comment

                  • #144
                    See I was under the impression that these threads were so that local fans in the know could give insight not available in readily available articles.

                    If you don't buy what I'm selling. .fine.

                    But the thread title does say GITH style not regurgitate existing prognostications.
                    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                    Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                    Martin Luther King, Jr.

                    Comment

                    • #145
                      Originally posted by eldiablo505
                      Vegas doesn't predict team wins, they predict where they can set the line in order to optimize their return. Right now, it would seem, they are capitalizing on a rush to buy into the Padres. That's just smart business.
                      Smart business was getting them at 30-1 the night before
                      If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                      Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                      Martin Luther King, Jr.

                      Comment

                      • #146
                        Originally posted by eldiablo505
                        Vegas doesn't predict team wins, they predict where they can set the line in order to optimize their return. Right now, it would seem, they are capitalizing on a rush to buy into the Padres. That's just smart business.
                        I see your point. But they can't get too far off what they think will happen, or a smart gambler would make some huge bets. I'll still bet on Vegas' end-of-March Wins over-under to do better than fangraphs (or whichever projection system is considered the best).

                        Comment

                        • #147
                          Originally posted by eldiablo505
                          Just looked at several projections for the 2014 season for the Padres and they actually underperformed most of them. Most of the projections I saw had them for 80-ish wins. The Vegas over/under was 78.5. They finished with 77 wins.
                          I get all that but you have turned this into a why the Padres aren't as good as gwynninthehall is saying thread. You are indeed able to post whatever you want wherever you want, but I started this thread with the intent to give our little community information that they won't get from other sources. They can be a little homerish but that was disclosed up front.

                          I'd just appreciate it if you'd start your own thread about how the Padres really aren't as good as I am intimating.

                          But again, do what you want. I can't stop fox news from broadcasting either.
                          If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                          Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                          Martin Luther King, Jr.

                          Comment

                          • #148
                            Originally posted by eldiablo505
                            Just looked at several projections for the 2014 season for the Padres and they actually underperformed most of them. Most of the projections I saw had them for 80-ish wins. The Vegas over/under was 78.5. They finished with 77 wins.
                            Could you please provide links to those sites projecting the Padres to win 80-ish games last season. I also thought you said Vegas lines were for suckers.
                            If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                            Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                            Martin Luther King, Jr.

                            Comment

                            • #149
                              Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
                              Could you please provide links to those sites projecting the Padres to win 80-ish games last season. I also thought you said Vegas lines were for suckers.
                              FWIW, we used 78.5 as the Padres O/U total last season (which obviously came from the Vegas line).

                              Comment

                              • #150
                                Originally posted by eldiablo505
                                No, but I'm sure you can easily find them.

                                I never said that.
                                Well yeah you did.....I love how Vegas is taking advantage of casual fan sucker money - brilliant grab for easy money. and Vegas doesn't predict team wins, they predict where they can set the line in order to optimize their return. Right now, it would seem, they are capitalizing on a rush to buy into the Padres. That's just smart business.

                                Both imply that Vegas lines have little merit outside of separating suckers from their money and generating action, but not to be taken as real projections like the professional sites....

                                You can't link it because I already looked everywhere and NONE of the sites that still have their 2014 projections had the Padres winning 80 ish. Most used the Vegas line and played over under and almost all of the sites chose under for the Padres. I say almost because I didn't search them all, but every major one I did had them under. Pythagorean had them under.


                                Bottomline, the Padres out performed everyone's expectations but Vegas's even mine.
                                If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

                                Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
                                Martin Luther King, Jr.

                                Comment

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